Patience point: the situation in Madagascar remains unstable

The situation in Madagascar remains tense, the Russian embassy told Izvestia. Since September 25, a wave of protests has covered the country: the protesters initially demanded to restore the supply of public services, later they began to advocate for the resignation of the president. The leader of the republic, Andri Radzuellina, announced an attempt to seize power after the military supported the protesters. According to media reports, he has already left the capital. However, even in the event of a change of power, it is unlikely that the situation in the region will stabilize, experts believe. The Russian Union of Travel Industry (PCT) advised Russians who are in Madagascar to stay in touch with the tour operator or with foreign institutions of the Russian Federation.

What is happening in Madagascar

President Andri Radzuellina announced an attempt to illegally and violently seize power after some of the military supported the protesters in Madagascar.

"Currently, an attempt to illegally seize power with the use of force is taking place on the territory of the country, which is contrary to the constitution and democratic principles," the report says.

Radzuelina also called for dialogue as the only way out of the crisis. The day before, Jeune Afrique magazine wrote that Radzuelina had left the capital of Madagascar, Antananarivo.

The situation in the country remains tense, the Russian Embassy in Madagascar told Izvestia.

— Although there were no demonstrations today that would disperse the law enforcement forces, nevertheless, the confrontation remains at the political level. The embassy has not received any recent requests from Russian citizens for assistance.

Earlier, the Russian diplomatic mission recommended that Russian citizens refrain from traveling to the center of Antananarivo and visiting public places.

The Russian Union of Travel Industry (PCT) advised travelers staying on the island to avoid crowded places and stay in touch with the tour operator or Russian foreign institutions.

— It is highly recommended to download the mobile application "Assistant Abroad" before traveling to receive notifications. And, of course, in our difficult times, there is always a recommendation not to participate in any mass events," Dmitry Gorin, Vice President of the PCT, told Izvestia.

Madagascar is a niche destination and there is no mass tourist flow there, he added.

Why did the protests start?

Protests in Madagascar began at the end of September due to problems with water and electricity supply. As in the case of the recent protests in Nepal, Indonesia or Peru, the youth became the driving force. The unrest gradually escalated into riots, looting of offices and shopping malls. One of the main slogans of the unrest was the phrase "We want to live, not survive." According to the IMF, only a third of local residents have access to electricity in the republic.

According to various sources, at least 22 people died during the riots. Although the official authorities have not confirmed this figure. Despite the fact that on September 26, the president dismissed the Minister of Energy, and on the 29th announced the dissolution of the government amid protests, discontent has not subsided.

On October 11, the media reported that the military Personnel Management Corps of the Madagascar Army (CAPSAT) joined the protesters on the streets of the capital and escorted the demonstrators to May 13 Square, historically known as the place of the change of power and protest unrest. The protesters called for the closure of all offices and schools on October 13, as well as the start of a nationwide strike to dismiss the president and carry out large-scale reforms. The soldiers also stressed that they refuse to follow orders to shoot at the demonstrators.

At the same time, in March 2009, CAPSAT soldiers helped Radzuellina, who at that time was the main opposition leader, come to power. In 2019, the president was re-elected again, and in 2023 he remained for a third term. On October 12, according to media reports, the CAPSAT corps also proclaimed itself the country's military command.

The political situation in Madagascar over the past three decades has been characterized by significant instability, Nikita Panin, a researcher at the Institute of Africa of the Russian Academy of Sciences, tells Izvestia.

"The situation remains somewhat deadlocked because even if a change of power takes place in Madagascar, it is unlikely to eliminate the main causes that gave rise to the Generation Z protests at the end of September this year," he says.

The Republic remains economically vulnerable, with a high level of poverty. In addition, periodic cyclones and droughts have a detrimental effect on the economic situation in the country.

— Naturally, no option for the development of the situation in the near future provides for the elimination of all problems, and taking into account recent events, the country is gradually losing control, the situation remains extremely unstable. The fact is that the public's trust in state institutions has been undermined after the 2023 elections," the expert says.

It is really difficult to predict the further development of events in Madagascar right now. However, significant changes in the political system should be expected in the country, Vsevolod Sviridov, deputy director of the HSE Center for African Studies, tells Izvestia.

— Political elites and a significant part of the army are still holding a neutral position. The military makes statements in favor of the protesters, but refrains from making statements about the overthrow of the president," he says. — The statement by the French state radio RFI that President Radzuelina was evacuated by a French military plane, if confirmed, would cause significant damage to his reputation. After such evacuations, they rarely return to power.

The expert recalled that in the entire history of Madagascar, power has in most cases been changed through military interventions.

Relations between Russia and Madagascar

Madagascar is currently one of the pilot African states in the Debt-for-Development initiative proposed by the Russian side. The program involves the conditional redirection of the country's remaining debt to Russia to finance socially significant projects within the debtor country, Panin noted.

In 2015, at that time, Russian Prime Minister Dmitry Medvedev signed an order according to which Madagascar would be able to use $89 million in debt owed to Russia to finance development projects in the republic.

Russia hosted its own investment forum with Madagascar, and it is one of the few African countries that has such a format of cooperation, the expert added. There is also an agreement on military-technical cooperation between the two countries.

One of the significant events was the signing of a joint statement in January 2025, according to which the countries agreed not to be the first to deploy weapons in space. The document also prohibits the use of force or threats of force from or against outer space. Russia and Madagascar then called on countries that are not participating in the NPC initiative to consider joining the treaty.

Cooperation between the parties also takes place through universities: 40 scholarships are awarded annually to students from the republic to study at Russian universities.

The Russian Federation considers Madagascar as an important partner with which it shares a common vision of the prospects for forming a more balanced system of international relations, Federation Council Chairman Valentina Matvienko said in December 2024.