Helsinki Pact: Stubb persuades Trump to toughen line against Russia

Finnish President Alexander Stubb arrived in Washington on October 9 to discuss icebreaker purchases and the Ukrainian crisis with Donald Trump. Stubb is one of the supporters of strengthening aid to Kiev, including through the allocation of a "reparation loan" for frozen Russian assets. Moscow considers this a robbery and is ready to respond adequately, Finance Minister Anton Siluanov told Izvestia. The expert community notes that Stubb will try to impose a European approach on Ukraine on Trump. At the same time, Helsinki's membership in NATO remains a key issue in Russian-Finnish relations. The loss of non-aligned status has significantly reduced the attractiveness of Finland as an international negotiating platform, the Russian Embassy in the country told Izvestia.

Stubb's visit to the USA

Finnish President Alexander Stubb has arrived in the United States to meet with Donald Trump. The construction of new icebreakers is on the agenda of bilateral relations. Trump said that the United States would buy them from Finland, and a total of 11 ships would be built. Stubb promised to transfer the first icebreaker to the United States in 2028.

However, icebreakers are only part of the negotiations. Even before his visit to the United States, Alexander Stubb announced plans to inform Trump about the situation in Ukraine so that he could then draw "his own" conclusions. The Finnish president has the image of being one of Kiev's most ardent supporters. He even admitted that he communicates with Vladimir Zelensky more often than with his own wife.

Stubb supports Ukraine's accession to the European Union, which, in his opinion, can provide it with security guarantees. In September, he defiantly stated that when developing guarantees for Kiev, European countries were not going to take into account Russia's interests. It is possible that Stubb will discuss with Trump the transfer of Tomahawk missiles to Ukraine. By the way, Zelensky has already promised to nominate the US president for the Nobel Peace Prize if he gives Kiev these weapons.

In addition, the Finnish president supports the provision of a "reparation loan" to Ukraine in the amount of 140 billion euros, which would be provided by frozen Russian assets. The Russian Federation has repeatedly warned about the consequences of such measures.

— The fact that assets have already been frozen is, in fact, a robbery of our assets and property. We will respond absolutely adequately, as has been said more than once. We also have frozen assets that will be used in exactly the same way as our European partners will deal with them," Russian Finance Minister Anton Siluanov told Izvestia.

Interestingly, liberal Alexander Stubb managed to establish a personal relationship with conservative Trump. The President of Finland charmed him while playing golf. The media reported that in July, American officials even asked Stubb to appeal to Trump to support the tightening of the bill on sanctions against the Russian Federation. Influential Senator Lindsey Graham (listed as a terrorist and extremist in Russia) called Stubb "a bridge between Europe and Trump."

Bloomberg noted that Stubb's personal connections with Trump give him access to "much broader opportunities" than Finland's neighbors in Northern Europe or even much larger European economies. In Stubb's understanding, at a meeting with Trump, he speaks on behalf of European leaders, says Nikita Lipunov, a junior researcher at MGIMO.

— Over the past year, the Finnish president has tried to use every opportunity, any personal contact with Trump, to influence his vision of the Ukrainian crisis and try to impose on him a European approach to Ukrainian regulation. And here he actively uses personal diplomacy: both Stubb and Trump play golf. The Finnish president uses this opportunity to discuss political issues in an informal setting during the game and promote both Finnish interests, for example, the construction of icebreakers for the United States, and European interests in general," he told Izvestia.

For Finland, the victory of the Russian Federation or the settlement of the Ukrainian conflict on Russian terms will be perceived as its own defeat, the analyst emphasizes.

— Like other small Scandinavian-Baltic states, Finland perceives this conflict as a value conflict, as an encroachment on the "rules—based order", which they particularly respect and promote, - Nikita Lipunov notes.

The EU is currently actively discussing the adoption of the 19th package of sanctions against Russia. Europe, however, has so far failed to convince Washington to join the restrictions. Trump's position on the new anti—Russian sanctions is a big unknown, writes Reuters. Donald Trump has admitted that the United States may impose new sanctions against Russia.

— Finland holds a leading position after the UK in terms of the number of the most active supporters of Ukraine. Our president, Alexander Stubb, is the new Boris Johnson (former British Prime Minister. — Ed.), Finnish journalist Lena Hitanen told Izvestia.

According to her, membership in NATO prevents Finland from normalizing relations with Russia. Ano Turtiainen, an ex-member of the Finnish parliament, thinks the same.

— NATO must be ousted from Finland. If this does not happen, it is difficult to believe that relations between Moscow and Helsinki will improve. Finland currently poses a threat to Russia's security," he told Izvestia.

Deterioration of relations between Russia and Finland

Finland became a member of NATO in 2023, a year after the start of its military operations. Russia has repeatedly stressed that its entry into the military-political bloc did not contribute to strengthening security, but, on the contrary, only led to an increase in tension in the region.

— Joining the alliance has also weakened the international position of Helsinki, which has lost its foreign policy sovereignty and is now forced to follow instructions from Brussels and Washington. The loss of non—aligned status has significantly reduced the attractiveness of Finland as an international negotiating platform, the Russian Embassy in Helsinki told Izvestia.

The diplomats noted that today Finland's membership in NATO has only led to the establishment of an atmosphere of "military psychosis" in Finnish society as a result of the total intimidation of the population by the alleged "Russian threat", as well as to accelerated militarization and increased military spending against the background of worsening socio-economic problems in the country.

Immediately after joining the alliance, Finland signed a defense cooperation agreement with the United States. According to it, Helsinki will provide the American side with access to 15 military facilities. The document provides for the deployment of equipment and resources in Finland, access and movement of American aircraft, ships and vehicles.

In early October, the headquarters of the NATO ground forces opened in Finland, which is located in the city of Mikkeli, located 150 km from the border of the Russian Federation and 300 km from St. Petersburg. At the same time, Moscow has repeatedly stressed that any approach of NATO infrastructure to the border with Russia does not contribute to strengthening regional stability.

— We regard the opening of the headquarters in Mikkeli as confirmation of the ongoing development of the Finnish territory by the alliance. The Russian departments responsible for Russia's defense and security will determine how serious a threat the new NATO structure poses to us, based on the specific parameters of its activities," the Russian Embassy noted.

In June, Vladimir Putin announced that the formation of the Moscow and Leningrad military districts, which were recreated by presidential decree in February 2024, would be completed in 2025. This was a response to Finland and Sweden joining NATO.

— I am sure that the majority of Russians perceived Finland's accession to NATO as an absolutely unpleasant surprise, which would entail very long-term negative consequences. This situation remains in force because, I am convinced, it is caused not by the desire of the Finnish people, but by "anti—Russian solidarity" with the North Atlantic bloc, Chairman of the International Affairs Committee of the Federation Council Grigory Karasin told Izvestia.

Finland was dragged into an anti—Russian adventure, although for many decades it had constructive relations first with the USSR and then with Russia, the senator concluded.