Age difference: average pension size has dropped below a quarter of salaries
In Russia, the average size of pensions has dropped below a quarter of earnings — 23 thousand rubles against almost 100 thousand, according to Rosstat data, which was studied by Izvestia. This is the minimum level for the last 17 years. The main reasons are record wage growth, which payments to the elderly cannot keep up with, as well as an increase in the number of self—employed and citizens without work experience. However, salaries will not be raised so readily in the coming years, which will give a chance to stabilize the ratio. How old—age payments and incomes will change in the future is in the Izvestia article.
Why are salaries four times higher than pensions
In the first half of 2025, the average salary of Russians reached 96 thousand rubles, and the pension reached 23 thousand rubles. Thus, payments (including insurance and government payments) amounted to only 24% of earnings, according to Rosstat data.
Compared to 2024, this ratio decreased by 1 percentage point - then the average pension in the first half of the year was exactly a quarter of earnings. The current figure has become the lowest in 17 years, Izvestia calculated based on historical data from Rosstat. The last time the indicator dropped below 25% was in 2008, when the salary was at 16 thousand, and payments were slightly less than 4 thousand.
If we look at the monthly dynamics, then in July the average salary in the country reached almost 99.3 thousand rubles, and pension payments — 23.5 thousand rubles. As a result, the ratio decreased to 23.7%. This is also indicated by the Accounting Chamber in its report on the execution of the federal budget for the first half of the year. The document notes that in May, the indicator dropped even lower— to 23.6%. The editorial board sent a request to the Ministry of Labor.
The decrease in the ratio of pensions to earnings below a quarter is due to two parallel trends: a rapid increase in salaries due to staff shortages and a more restrained indexation of payments to the elderly, explained Valery Tumin, a member of the expert council at the State Duma Committee on Economic Policy. According to him, salaries increased by a third in 2023-2024 alone, while payments increased by 17%.
— Outstripping earnings growth continues, although the pace has slightly decreased compared to last year. In January – July, the annual increase in the average salary was 15% compared to 18% for the same period in 2024," said Olga Belenkaya, Head of the Macroeconomic Analysis Department at Finam.
There are other reasons why the ratio of pensions to salaries continues to decline, said Yulia Dolzhenkova, a professor at the Financial University under the Government of the Russian Federation. Firstly, from 2016 to 2024, payments to working elderly people were not indexed. Secondly, the number of citizens receiving old-age social pensions is growing every year. It helps those who have never worked officially or do not have sufficient work experience. The amount of such benefits is significantly lower than the average pension level (just over 15,000).
In addition, almost half of the total wage fund is received by the wealthiest workers, the expert added. The other groups share the other half. As a result, the ratio calculated based on the average salary does not reflect the real level of pension provision for the majority of elderly people, whose payments were formed from more modest incomes, Yulia Dolzhenkova explained.
At the same time, the ratio of the average pension to earnings in Russia is noticeably lower than the recommended level by the International Labor Organization — at least 40%. This indicator continues to decrease against the background of labor shortages and accelerated wage growth, especially over the past three years, Olga Belenkaya emphasized. During this time, the value decreased from 28% in 2022 to 24% in 2025.
How to save up for a decent old age
The government has submitted to the State Duma a bill on the annual indexation of the minimum wage. Starting from January 2026, the minimum wage will exceed 27 thousand rubles, which is 21% more than the level of 2025. Such a measure can support earnings growth, especially in the low-paid segment, Olga Belenkaya reminded.
At the same time, according to the expert, in the future we should expect a more noticeable slowdown in wage dynamics against the background of a cooling economy. At the same time, the indexation of payments for working elderly people has been resumed since 2025, and from 2026 it is planned to switch to a two-stage increase in insurance pensions. According to Olga Belenkaya, this does not guarantee the stabilization of the ratio of pensions and earnings, but it can at least slow down the rate of its decline.
According to the forecast of the Ministry of Economic Development, real wage growth will slow down to 2.4% in 2026. For comparison, in 2025, the figure is estimated at 3.4%, and in 2024 it was 9.7%.
— A slowdown in earnings growth will have a dual effect on the ratio of pensions and salaries. On the one hand, this may slightly improve the indicator. On the other hand, it will reduce the basis for the formation of pension rights, since it is the salary that underlies them. Additional pressure will be exerted by the increase in the number of self—employed, since this regime does not involve the accrual of insurance premiums and does not form pension rights," explained Yulia Dolzhenkova, a professor at the Financial University.
To improve the standard of living in retirement, it is important to create a financial cushion in advance, that is, your own savings, said Natalia Milchakova, a leading analyst at Freedom Finance Global. According to her, by saving, for example, 20% of income, you can eventually create long-term savings. So, to accumulate 1 million with earnings of 100 thousand, it will take about five years.
To receive an additional income of 50,000 per month for 10 years after retirement, you need to raise about 6 million, estimated Valery Tumin from the expert council at the State Duma. If you start saving 20 years before that, you will have to save about 18-19 thousand dollars a month using instruments with returns above inflation, such as NPFs, long—term deposits or investment products.
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