Save from a young age: in the Russian Federation they want to adapt pension portfolios to the age of clients

In Russia, it was proposed to allow pension funds to form investment portfolios based on the age of clients. Representatives of T-Pensions made such an initiative at a meeting with the Central Bank. Currently, corporate bonds and OFZs predominate in assets. However, the transition to an adaptive strategy can increase the profitability of long–term instruments by 0.7-1.7 percentage points per year. Young participants are encouraged to increase their shares and other potentially profitable investments, and as they approach retirement, gradually transfer funds to more conservative and reliable instruments. How this approach can affect the stock market and whether it will increase interest in long—term investments is described in the Izvestia article.

What are pension funds investing in in Russia?

There is a growing interest in Russia's long-term savings program, which can be used to save money for the future. According to the Central Bank, from 2024 to September 2025, about 5 million people joined it, and the total amount of investments exceeded 483 billion rubles. The popularity of the program is explained by state support: the state co-finances contributions, provides a tax deduction, and also allows pension savings to be transferred to the PDS. At the same time, the profitability of investments is provided by the strategy that non-governmental pension funds (NPFs) choose for asset management.

Currently, most NPFs offer conservative products that do not take into account the age and risk profile of their clients. Most of the funds are placed in federal loan bonds and corporate bonds, while the share of shares in portfolios usually does not exceed 10%. This caution is related to the current requirements: funds are required to guarantee the break-even of investments for a period of one to five years. If the result turns out to be negative, losses will have to be covered from the insurance reserve, and if there is a shortage, from own funds.

According to the Central Bank, the average return on pension reserves from 2015 to the first half of 2025 was only 7.3%. To increase the efficiency of investments, T-Pension proposes to expand the mandate of NPFs and allow them to form portfolios based on the age of the client. The logic is simple — the asset structure of a person who is five years away from retirement should differ from the portfolio of someone who will enter it in 30 years. As T-Bank told Izvestia, the fund presented the corresponding proposal at a meeting with the Bank of Russia. The editorial board sent a request to the regulator.

— This approach will allow the client to receive increased returns when the investment horizon is long, and over time portfolios gain stability by rebalancing into more conservative instruments. This allows us to increase the potential profitability of clients and the trust in the PDS," explained Dmitry Tarasov, CEO of NPF T—Pension.

At the same time, according to the expert, about 23% of the participants in the PDS are people under the age of 45. They are the ones who are more likely to be ready for strategies with a larger share of stocks that bring higher returns in the long run.

Meanwhile, the press service of the Central Bank told Izvestia that they had not yet received such an initiative. The regulator also recalled that the legislation of the Russian Federation does not prohibit, within the framework of contracts for non-state pension provision and long-term savings, the formation of investment strategies that link the risk level of the client's portfolio with the expected retirement age.

At the same time, funds need to generate such funds, as well as keep records of them and invest separately from each other. An adaptive investment strategy should be prescribed in contracts with clients and pension rules or rules for the formation of long—term savings, the Central Bank believes. "This is necessary in order not to mix the assets and liabilities of clients of different age groups, including for the correct calculation of the result of the placement of pension funds," the regulator explained.

Ruble maturity: pension ratio may rise in 2027

To what extent does the increase correlate with the projected inflation rate

How to increase the profitability of long-term investments

This practice has been used abroad for a long time. Since about the 2000s, so-called target date funds (TDF) have appeared. Their strategy is based on the age and risk profile of the client - as they approach retirement, the portfolio structure becomes more cautious. As a rule, the share of stocks is gradually decreasing, while part of the bonds is growing — thus financial organizations help to accumulate capital in their youth and protect it closer to a well-deserved rest.

Since 2009, assets in such funds have grown from $272 billion to $4 trillion, increasing by an average of a third per year. Today, they account for about 9% of total U.S. retirement savings. Similar solutions are actively developing in other countries, such as the UK, Canada, Australia, Chile, and Mexico.

To assess how well such a model could be suitable for the Russian market, T-Investments calculated the potential profitability based on historical data. The structure of the NPF portfolio and the investment period of 15 years with a gradual decrease in the share of shares were taken as a basis.:

• 60% — in the first five years;

• 30% — from the fifth to the tenth year;

• 10% — from the tenth to the 15th year.

The calculation showed that the strategy, adapted to the age of the client, provides a higher average annual return, even taking into account the crisis years in the economy. Thus, the indicator was higher by 0.7 percentage points — 10.6% against 9.9% for the standard portfolio of NPFs.

At the same time, if we compare the results with the actual profitability of NPFs over the past 10 years, the difference will become even more noticeable: it reaches 3.3 percentage points — 10.6% versus 7.3%.

Even in the most unfavorable 15-year scenario, the investor would have received more than the market average of 7.4% versus 7.3% per annum, the study showed.

At the same time, the addition of gold to the portfolio, the share of which also varies depending on the age of the client (20% in the first five years, 10% from the fifth to the tenth and 5% from the tenth to the 15th), further increased the final profitability. The inclusion of this asset resulted in an increase of an average of 1.7 percentage points — from 9.9 to 11.6% compared to the average investment structure of NPFs, follows from the calculations of "T-Investments".

However, over a short horizon of five years, portfolios with a high proportion of stocks may show negative returns, which is contrary to legal requirements. But for a period of ten years, such assets, as a rule, provide a more stable positive result.

— In order to implement an adaptive portfolio structure, it may be necessary to increase the break—even guarantee period from the current five to ten years, — said Dmitry Tarasov.

Long-standing accounts: 706 thousand Russians will be able to withdraw their pension savings in 2026.

Who has the right to such payments and how much money can be received

How to double the capitalization of the Russian stock market

According to Dmitry Tarasov, the adaptation of NPF portfolios to the age of clients can have a noticeable structural effect on the Russian stock market. According to him, due to the long-term nature of investments, such funds form "long" money, the growth of which reduces market volatility and contributes to its more sustainable development.

As Viktor Zhidkov, Chairman of the Board of the Moscow Stock Exchange, noted, the retail investor is becoming the main driving force of the Russian market today. In this regard, according to him, it is necessary to adjust the savings and investment behavior of citizens in the context of the task set by the President of the Russian Federation — doubling the capitalization of the stock market by 2030.

Pension funds are now much more tightly regulated than similar investment instruments such as mutual funds, ILI products and brokerage solutions, added Larisa Gorchakovskaya, CEO of NPF Alfa. According to her, if we are talking about long-term programs and attracting young people, as well as broader categories of the population, not only pre-retirees, easing a number of regulatory requirements would make NPF products more competitive.

— In world practice, there are examples of more profitable investments among pension funds, the share of shares in which can exceed 40% (for example, Chinese, American, Canadian, Australian). But historically, pension funds have been organizations that play a social role, since they work not only with private money, but also with public money. And the responsibility of NPFs for the safety of savings probably prevails over the potential profitability provided by more risky instruments," she estimated.

PDS is gradually becoming one of the key tools for attracting long-term investments in the economy. Its development requires joint efforts by the government, business and financial institutions, said Vladislav Gusev, CEO of Renaissance Accumulation. According to him, the key objective of the program is to increase transparency, simplicity and convenience of long—term savings management solutions. This is especially important because the PDS is aimed at young people, for whom digitalization and accessibility of services are becoming a priority.

Participants in the SDS market see the potential to increase long-term profitability through controlled changes in the structure of NPF investments while strengthening customer protection, said Oleg Chernousov, CEO of Sovcombank Life Insurance. According to him, the company proposes to launch such a pilot project within the limited perimeter of the PDS — with quarterly reports, parameters agreed with the regulator, and subsequent legislative fixation of conditions after evaluating the results in a year.

NPF Alfa also reported that for more active investors with a long planning horizon, a strategy with an increased proportion of risky assets is being launched — within the limits that do not violate the break-even requirement. The Fund intends to test the demand for such a model to a limited extent and assess how it affects the interest of customers in the opening of the PDS.