Ruble maturity: pension ratio may rise in 2027
During 2027, a gradual increase in the cost of one pension coefficient is planned in Russia. The government plans provide for two stages of indexation of this indicator. The first adjustment should take place in early February, when the coefficient value will be increased to about 163 rubles. Then, two months later, a second increase is planned, as a result of which the cost of one pension point will reach about 168 rubles. Izvestia investigated whether the indexation rates could be considered sufficient to preserve the purchasing power of pensions, as well as which categories of pensioners would benefit most from the increase in the coefficient.
Measurement scale
The amount of insurance pensions depends on the number of individual pension coefficients earned by a citizen and the cost of this coefficient, the Ministry of Labor told Izvestia. The CPI increases, or, in other words, insurance pensions are indexed annually by no less than the rate of inflation.
"By 2026, insurance pensions will be indexed by 7.6% starting from January 1, which is higher than the projected inflation rate of 6.8%. Thus, pensions will be increased for all recipients of insurance pensions according to the same principles — by 7.6%, for both working and non—working Russians, and the exact amount of the increase depends on the size of the recipients' pensions," the ministry said.
The individual pension coefficient, also known as pension points, is a key parameter that determines the future size of a pension, Peter Shcherbachenko, associate professor at the Financial University under the Government of the Russian Federation, told Izvestia. The amount of an old—age insurance pension is determined according to the following principle: SP = IPK × SPK + EF, where SP is the amount of the insurance pension; IPK is the number of accumulated pension points; SPK is the monetary value of one point on the date of pension assignment; and EF is a fixed part added to the total payment.
— During the year, you can accumulate up to 10 retirement points as much as possible. For 2025, the maximum base for calculating insurance premiums is 2,759,000 rubles per year, or 229,917 rubles per month. The amount of official income plays a crucial role in the formation of the PKI: the higher the salary within the established base, the more points will be awarded and the closer the individual coefficient is to the maximum possible 10 points," he explained.
In addition to the length of service, pension points can also be awarded to Russians for certain life circumstances that are recognized as socially significant, noted Pyotr Shcherbachenko. The list of such situations is quite extensive and is regulated by various legislative acts. In particular, for the time of caring for children until they reach the age of one and a half years, different amounts of points are awarded: for the first child — 1.8 per year, for the second — 3.6, and for the third and fourth — 5.4 per year.
— In addition, participation in a special military operation is estimated at 3.6 points for a full calendar year, — the expert reminded. — Similarly, 1.8 points are awarded for caring for a child with a disability, the same amount is awarded for caring for an elderly person who has reached the age of 80.
Indexing the amount
Starting from January 1, 2026, it is planned to set the cost of one pension point at 156 rubles 76 kopecks, and to determine the fixed part of the old-age insurance pension in the amount of 9584 rubles 69 kopecks. This increase corresponds to an indexation of 7.6%, the expert emphasized. The first recalculated pension increase in 2026 is scheduled for February 1, while its exact amount will depend on actual inflation rates. If we consider the growth dynamics of the pension coefficient, we can note a positive trend: from 145.69 rubles in 2025, the indicator will increase to 168.57 rubles by 2027, which indicates a steady increase in the rate of indexation.
"Nevertheless, when analyzing the adequacy of pension benefit increases, it is important to take into account a number of key circumstances," said Petr Shcherbachenko. — First of all, inflation plays a crucial role: if the rate of indexation is lower than the rate of price growth, the real incomes of pensioners will decrease, which will inevitably lead to a decrease in their well-being. In addition, changes in the cost of basic goods and services, which are most often purchased by the elderly, should be taken into account. If the rise in prices of these categories exceeds the rate of indexation, the purchasing power of pensioners will also be under pressure.
The increase in the cost of the pension coefficient suggests that in 2027 insurance pensions will be recalculated with an increase of 7.5% compared to the level of 2026, Viktor Lyashok, senior researcher at the INSAP Center of the IPEI RANEPA, confirmed to Izvestia. The indexation will affect all recipients of insurance benefits, both working citizens and those who have already completed their work. At the same time, the rate of increase significantly exceeds the expected inflation for next year, which, according to the forecast of the Ministry of Economic Development, will be about 4%. As a result, the real size of pensions should increase, which will improve their purchasing power.
"If the actual inflation rate is close to the forecast, then the purchasing power of pensions in 2027 will increase for most categories of pensioners," he said. — However, inflation largely depends on factors that are difficult to predict, so the actual value of the consumer price index may be higher. In addition, the level of price growth varies for different categories of the population, as the composition of their consumer basket varies. But in any case, insurance pensions cannot be indexed below the official inflation rate for the past year.
The upcoming two-stage pension increase is aimed at ensuring their real value, taking into account changing economic conditions, Sergei Grishunin, managing director of the NRA rating service, told Izvestia. The first stage of the adjustment, which is carried out in February, traditionally correlates with the inflation rate for the previous year and serves as the main mechanism for protecting pensioners from depreciation of their incomes.
The second stage of indexation, scheduled for April, according to him, provides for the introduction of a new key element — an additional adjustment based on the projected income of the Social Fund. This approach opens up the possibility for a more dynamic increase in pensions, allowing their growth to outpace the rate of increase in consumer prices and thereby provide pensioners with a more sustainable level of material well-being.
— However, the final verdict on the sufficiency of the pace of indexation can be made only after the fact, — says Sergey Grishunin. — The key criterion will be the comparison of the final percentage increase with the actual inflation in 2027. The experience of previous years — for example, additional indexation in 2025 — shows that the government is ready for point adjustments if the initial growth does not keep up with the real price increase, but there is a risk that the increases will not catch up with the inflation rate.
The economic situation in the country and the growth rate of federal budget revenues play a key role in determining the possibility of a more significant increase in payments, Sergei Leonov, head of the State Duma Committee on Health Protection, told Izvestia. Despite the planned changes, in order to further improve the well-being of pensioners, it is necessary to continue improving the pension system, increase the real incomes of working citizens and strengthen the stability of the economy, since this directly affects the amount of income to the Pension Fund and, consequently, the possibility of a more tangible increase in pensions in the future.
Izvestia sent inquiries to the Ministry of Labor and the Social Fund, but no responses had been received at the time of publication.
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