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- On the other hand: Russia and the United States are discussing a new round of consultations in October
On the other hand: Russia and the United States are discussing a new round of consultations in October
Russia and the United States have scheduled a new meeting to eliminate irritants this fall. According to Izvestia's sources, it could take place as early as October. Visas, the normalization of embassies and the fate of diplomatic property are on the agenda. At the same time, the rhetoric of the United States towards the Russian Federation on the Ukrainian track has noticeably tightened. First, Trump allowed Ukraine to return to its former borders, and then J.D. Vance announced that the United States was discussing the possibility of supplying Tomahawk cruise missiles for sale to Kiev. Such steps may ricochet other issues between the Russian Federation and the United States, but a number of accumulated problems need to be resolved regardless of the Ukrainian conflict, Dmitry Novikov, first deputy chairman of the State Duma Committee on International Affairs, told Izvestia. Experts believe that what is happening is another tool of pressure on Moscow in the settlement process, and not a step towards escalation. What else Moscow and Washington can discuss and how the EU is trying to prevent this is in the Izvestia article.
Russia and the United States will hold a new round on "irritants" in the fall
Despite the tension in the public field, the dialogue between Russia and the United States continues. The parties agreed to hold the next, third round of negotiations on the so-called "irritants" by the end of autumn, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said. Visa issues, the normalization of embassies, and the fate of Russian diplomatic property are still being discussed, the minister added. And the agenda of the Russian-American negotiations is quite extensive. In particular, there is a chance to resume direct flights. In addition, both sides are obviously interested in cooperation in space and the development of rare earth metal deposits.
"We do not see any deviation of the United States from the course of conducting an open, honest dialogue with the Russian Federation,— Sergey Lavrov added.
In general, the contacts at the highest diplomatic level confirm this.
The Russian minister personally discussed the future meeting during talks with US Secretary of State Marco Rubio on the sidelines of the 80th session of the UN General Assembly in New York. Prior to that, the two sides met in July in Kuala Lumpur, and even earlier in February in Riyadh. By the way, it was after that historic meeting that the Russian Federation and the United States came to the first tangible agreements.: It was decided to restore the number of staff at the embassies in Moscow and Washington.
A European diplomatic source told Izvestia that a new Russian-American meeting could take place as early as October. Another informed interlocutor of the editorial board stated that there is no exact date yet, but consultations are indeed planned for the end of October – beginning of November.
The US Embassy, responding to a question from Izvestia about the possibility of holding a meeting in October, did not deny this information.
—We expect to continue these negotiations in the future, when it will be convenient for both sides," the diplomatic mission said.
Since the beginning of the year, the delegations of Russia and the United States have held two rounds of consultations on eliminating irritants in bilateral relations — on February 27 and April 10, both in Istanbul. On June 10, the new Russian ambassador to Washington, Alexander Darchiev, announced that the parties had previously agreed to move meetings from the Turkish metropolis to their capitals, and a new round would be held "in the very near future in Moscow." At this point, the negotiations suddenly stalled. On June 16, it became known that the United States canceled the upcoming meeting with Russia, and neither side officially announced the reasons. As a result, the pause dragged on, although the Russian Foreign Ministry continued to express confidence that the round would take place in the foreseeable future. Nevertheless, Moscow and Washington have already managed to resolve the most "acute, glaring problems" concerning visas, delegation exchanges and financial services for foreign institutions, Deputy head of the department Sergei Ryabkov emphasized.
— At the same time, the "blockages" that arose around bilateral relations under previous administrations do not allow us to hope for an easy course of the process. That is why the dialogue is progressing very difficult and slowly, but the light is beginning to shine at the end of the tunnel," Oleg Karpovich, Vice Rector of the Diplomatic Academy, told Izvestia.
The Russian side has repeatedly pointed to the "toxic legacy" left by the Democrats, led by Joe Biden. Therefore, the step towards continuing negotiations on "irritants" is rather symbolic and will not immediately lead to tectonic political shifts, says Egor Toropov, an American scientist, candidate of political Sciences, and analyst at the National Research University Higher School of Economics.
The United States is changing its rhetoric towards Russia
Moreover, the US rhetoric towards Russia has been ambiguous lately. It seems that Washington is trying to apply various and sometimes very radical approaches. On September 28, Vice President Jay Dee Vance said that the US authorities were discussing the possibility of supplying Tomahawk cruise missiles to NATO for sale to Ukraine, and the final decision on this issue lay with Donald Trump. Kiev has not yet received weapons of such a range (2.5 thousand km). However, this is not a personal initiative of Washington, but all the same urgent requests of Vladimir Zelensky, said Keith Kellogg, the president's special envoy for Ukraine.
At the same time, Axios reported on September 26 that Trump had previously refused such supplies. However, the American president has been clearly "out of sorts" lately. At the session of the UN General Assembly, he said that Ukraine, with the support of the EU, is able to return its original borders, and Russia turned out to be a "paper tiger" altogether. Marco Rubio had to defuse the situation. The head of the State Department recalled that the United States remains committed to a peaceful settlement of the conflict.
Finally, Trump decided to participate in a meeting of generals organized by the head of the Pentagon, Pete Hegseth, to "restore morale," writes The Washington Post. The publication draws attention to the fact that the appearance of the president makes significant changes to the event plan and can generally give it a political connotation.
"Any steps that create Russia's foreign policy problems — and the situation with its military in Ukraine, of course, is related to Russia's foreign policy objectives — do not improve the overall atmosphere of international cooperation, which means they can ricochet on other issues," Dmitry Novikov, first deputy chairman of the State Duma Committee on International Affairs, told Izvestia. — But at the same time, we need to keep in mind that so many problems and blockages have already formed in Russian-American relations that need to be resolved regardless of the Ukrainian conflict.
Signals are coming from the White House that the Trump administration is maintaining the status quo, that is, it continues to finance and support Ukraine and prolong the conflict, American political analyst Jeremy Kuzmarov tells Izvestia. It is possible that this is not a step towards deliberate escalation, but another tactical move by the White House. In New York, after all the resonant statements, Trump nevertheless left a window for negotiations on the Ukrainian conflict, setting a new deadline of one month. In the summer, the Republican had already set an ultimatum deadline for Russia to resolve the conflict, while threatening secondary duties against Moscow and its trading partners by early autumn. Despite the sanctions packages pouring in from the EU, the United States is still waiting.
— With such statements, the Trump administration rather wants to put pressure on Moscow, but it is unlikely to escalate. If we assume that Trump approves the transfer of Tomahawk, then he will go down in history as the man who brought World War III closer — these missiles can carry a nuclear charge, these are weapons of the US strategic reserve. Therefore, this step will not only undermine the Russian-American dialogue, but also give the Russian Federation the right to use its painful weapon," Tigran Meloyan, an analyst at the HSE Center for Mediterranean Studies, told Izvestia.
Moreover, Russia recently made an important proposal to the United States to extend compliance with the START Treaty restrictions for a year, effectively inviting the start of a dialogue on strategic stability. Radical actions at this moment are unlikely to contribute to constructive cooperation on this issue.
The "Drone Wall" and NATO missions
It is obvious that the dialogue between the two powers, which have been defining the geopolitical map of the world for decades, cannot take place in a vacuum, and the overall situation certainly affects the negotiation process. The aggressive position of the European allies of the United States in NATO adds fuel to the fire. A series of recent incidents involving drones triggered a chain reaction in the form of accusations against the Russian Federation.
It all started with the fact that on the night of September 10, about two dozen UAVs violated Polish airspace. In Warsaw, they immediately and without proof pointed to the Russian trace. Moscow rejected the accusations and even offered to hold consultations on the issue, to which no reaction was expected. But on September 12, NATO launched Operation Eastern Guard to strengthen its position on the eastern flank.
Further, unknown drones were spotted in Denmark, affecting the operation of airports. The country's authorities called the incidents a "hybrid attack," however, without directly mentioning Moscow, although a number of media outlets are actively spreading this version. Against this background, the EU managed to discuss and even approve the drone wall project. London has also joined in: British-Ukrainian UAVs developed as part of the Octopus project will be involved in the "wall". Nevertheless, it is not yet known how exactly, and, most importantly, with whose funds the wall will be built, but the creation of such a line of defense poses a direct threat to Russia's security, the Federation Council stressed.
On September 28, it became known that NATO was expanding Operation Baltic Sentinel due to some drones in Danish airspace. It is reported that the alliance "will show even greater vigilance with the help of new means in the Baltic Sea region," using intelligence and surveillance platforms and at least one air defense frigate.
— Europe is pursuing a tough line against Russia, contrary to its own economic interests. European leaders are extremely belligerent, and this is starting to show. They have invested a lot of political capital in the confrontation with the Russian Federation and do not seem to intend to back down," said Jeremy Kuzmarov.
At the same time, a scandal broke out after three Russian MiG-31s flew over the Baltic Sea. At the initiative of Estonia, an emergency meeting was even called at NATO headquarters, at which Secretary General Mark Rutte, however, stated that in this case there was no immediate threat. Of course, the United States, as a key member of NATO, was dragged into the story of the planes. Donald Trump, answering a provocative question at a press conference with Zelensky on the sidelines of the UN General Assembly, actually gave the alliance countries permission to shoot down Russian aircraft if they violate the alliance's airspace.
Of course, the Europeans and Kiev will continue to seek to disrupt the warming in relations between Russia and the United States with various provocations, Oleg Karpovich is sure. However, the sovereign, unlike the European, American foreign policy towards Russia will not be knocked down by the changeable rhetoric of European partners, believes Egor Toropov.
After all, there are issues of global security, nuclear weapons, and other topics where the aggravation of Russian-American relations outside of the Ukrainian issue also threatens serious consequences for both our countries and the world as a whole, since we are talking about two states that possess the most deadly types of weapons, Dmitry Novikov emphasized to Izvestia..
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