Repetition of the past: in the Czech Republic, the opponent of aid to Ukraine seeks to return to the prime minister's chair

Parliamentary elections will be held in the Czech Republic in early October. According to opinion polls, the party of former Prime Minister Andrei Babish, a well-known Eurosceptic, may win by a large margin. The politician, although he has never been seen to openly sympathize with Russia, is rather restrained on the issue of helping Kiev. For the past three years, the Czech Republic, along with Poland and the Baltic states, has been among the most active supporters of Ukraine, but Babis' victory could strengthen the Orban–Fico axis in the EU. Details can be found in the Izvestia article.

They will say yes

The composition of the Czech Parliament will be determined on October 3 and 4. According to polls conducted by the STEM Institute, so far the opposition centrist party ANO ("Action of Dissatisfied Citizens") has a strong advantage former Prime Minister Andrei Babish. The abbreviation means "yes" in Czech.

Former Czech Prime Minister Andrei Babis

Photo: TASS/AP/Olivier Matthys

The ANO is currently supported by about 30% of voters, while the government's center—right coalition Together (SPOLU) is supported by 19%. The liberal centrist party "Elders and Independents" (STAN) is popular with about 10% of voters.

The ANO party, led by billionaire Babish, appeared in 2011, declaring itself an anti-corruption force. Two years later, the politician became head of the Ministry of Finance, and in 2017 he became prime Minister, forming a coalition government with the help of the Czech Social Democratic Party.

Local media once called Babis the "Czech Trump" who advocates strengthening relations with Russia. But it was under his leadership that Czech-Russian relations deteriorated: in March 2018, Prague, in solidarity with London, expelled three Russian diplomats in connection with the Skripal case. Moscow responded in kind.

Dismantling of the monument to Marshal of the Soviet Union Ivan Konev

Photo: TASS/EPA/MARTIN DIVISEK

In the spring of 2020, a monument to Marshal Ivan Konev was dismantled in the Czech capital, and a year later a diplomatic scandal broke out between the Russian Federation and the Czech Republic, which led to the expulsion of several dozen diplomats from each side. This happened after Prague accused Russian intelligence officers of involvement in an explosion at an ammunition depot in the village of Vrbetice in October 2014. Then came the sanctions.

In the Czech Republic, real power is concentrated in the hands of the Prime Minister, and the president, who is formally the head of state and commander-in-chief, also represents the country in the international arena.

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Together with Orban and Fico

According to the Median survey, in exchange for an improvement in the economic situation, the Czechs are willing to accept that their country will deviate from the course pursued by the European Union and follow "the path of Hungary and Slovakia."

66% of respondents are confident that if the ANO party forms the next government, the interests of ordinary people will be more taken into account, 34% believe that ordinary Czechs will be better off if the current coalition remains in power.

According to voters, Babish's party is more competent in economic matters, writes the newspaper Seznam Zpravy. The reason for the party's popularity is also that it promises to solve all the pressing problems of the Czechs. Babish is going to return to the previous retirement age (65 years), fight illegal immigrants, support businesses, reduce taxes, and increase energy availability.

Photo: TASS/AP/Petr David Josek

The day before, the politician said that, although he supports membership in the EU and NATO, he is not going to "blindly follow" their instructions. As for the Ukrainian conflict, he urges not to believe in illusions about Russia's defeat and to rely on agreements with it instead of increasing arms supplies to Ukraine.

So there is no pro—Russian candidate in the Czech Republic, Babis is just a supporter of a more pro-Czech rather than pro-European policy.

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What do the experts think

The Czech Republic's foreign policy after the elections will largely depend on how relations between Russia and the United States develop, chairman of the Association of Independent Media, former Czech police chief Stanislav Novotny tells Izvestia.

"Nevertheless, if the opposition, led by the ANO party, comes to power, there is a chance for improved relations with the Visegrad Four countries and a weakening of hostile rhetoric towards the Russian Federation," the expert added.

Photo: Global Look Press/Malte Ossowski/SVEN SIMON

He noted that there is growing dissatisfaction with the prices of many goods and electricity in the Czech Republic.

— But here it is important to understand, if I may say so, the character of the Czech people. Most Czechs are very cautious people and opportunists. They don't tend to demand radical changes, so many are just quietly indignant. But this quality is caused by the historical experience when the Czech people managed to survive in a territory that has great geopolitical value," he said.

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Natalia Eremina, a professor at St. Petersburg State University, noted in a conversation with Izvestia that there is currently serious internal political tension in the Czech Republic.

— After 2014, when a harsh anti-Russian position began to form throughout the European Union, upon learning that one of the politicians at some point spoke positively about cooperation with the Russian Federation, it was "canceled", so that European politicians' business ties with the Russian Federation began to be used as an instrument of internal political struggle. the expert explained.

Photo: TASS/Mikhail Tereshchenko

She stressed that in fact, the restriction of contacts with Russia is a blow to all economic programs. The population is dissatisfied with the militarized discourse of the current authorities, fearing an unfavorable development of events in the future.

— In general, there is a need to make a bet on returning to a pragmatic course, and these pragmatic politicians still give their voice. It is quite difficult for them now because of the position of Brussels. To protect their positions, they will have to create some kind of alliances, their own domestic political flank to defend opinions and build a pragmatic foreign policy.

Political analyst Vadim Trukhachev, in a conversation with Izvestia, said that, most likely, the current ruling coalition will be defeated.

— Just because she was dealing with Russia and Ukraine instead of solving internal problems. Although under Fiala, the previously successfully developing country became the "sick man of Europe" with rising prices and outgoing production. There are chances of a change of course," the expert believes.

In his opinion, apparently, the new government of the ANO party will reduce arms supplies to Ukraine, resume issuing visas to Russian citizens and abandon crude anti-Russian rhetoric. However, it will be more critical of Russia than the Fico government in Slovakia.

Photo: Global Look Press/Senior Airman Stephani Barge

— Either the former head of government Babis or the formal leader of the party Karel Havlicek can become the prime minister. However, President Pavel will certainly make the preservation of Ukraine's weapons a condition for their appointment, albeit in a smaller volume than before. President Pavel himself will continue to collect shells for the Armed Forces of Ukraine on behalf of the EU and NATO," the expert is sure.

In his opinion, it is possible that the liberal-conservatives from the Elders and Independents party will be appointed as a junior partner in the government of the ANO.

"So that they get the post of foreign Minister and don't let them change their foreign policy too much," the analyst concluded.

According to Jan Bures, a Czech political scientist from the Metropolitan University, one of the reasons for Babis' growing popularity is frustration with the current government.

— Voters expected reforms from him, which, for example, would rationalize the tax system and, as a result, would improve the quality of life. However, they didn't get it. Those who support the ANO party believe that the government should have set fixed energy prices, some are concerned that travel discounts have been canceled in the regions, believing that Babis will return them, so they say that he is more competent in governing the country," concluded Buresh.