National perspective: Russia remains the leader in Europe in terms of economy size
Faced with external difficulties, Russia still holds the status of the largest economy in the European space, Russian Prime Minister Mikhail Mishustin said in a video message to participants of the Moscow Financial Forum. At the same time, the state retains the fourth position in the global ranking in terms of economic volume. Izvestia analyzed which industries make the greatest contribution to strengthening the country's economic potential, as well as what risks may affect the preservation of Russia's current position.
Fulcrum points
The energy sector remains the main source of strengthening the national economic foundation, Peter Shcherbachenko, associate professor at the Financial University under the Government of the Russian Federation, told Izvestia. It is oil and gas production that continues to provide significant export revenues and generates a significant portion of budget revenues, even with existing plans for diversification. In addition, the agricultural sector is of strategic importance. Russia has firmly established itself among the largest suppliers of grain and other agricultural products to the world market, which has a positive impact on domestic food security.
In the data of the Ministry of Economic Development for 2025, the structure of GDP was given: the share of manufacturing industries was 14.5%, mining accounted for 9.8%, transportation and storage accounted for 5.6%, Petr Shcherbachenko recalled. At the same time, logistics acts as a key link, contributing to the development of trade flows and the maintenance of international and domestic relations.
"It is also worth noting the stability of the trade sector, which manages to adapt to the sanctions challenges and logistical difficulties and maintain a high role in the country's economy," Vladimir Eremkin, senior researcher at the IPEI Structural Research Laboratory at the Presidential Academy, added in an interview with Izvestia. — The hotel business and catering, as well as the ICT sector, demonstrate good dynamics in terms of quarterly growth rates of added value. High growth rates are maintained in the public administration sector due to increased federal budget expenditures.
Ways to promote
— Internal reforms and state support contribute to maintaining positions. The government is pursuing an adaptive fiscal and fiscal policy, including an updated budget rule and an increase in the key rate to combat inflation. Large-scale import substitution programs, preferential loans for businesses and support for non-primary exports are being implemented. Social stability is ensured through pension indexation and the implementation of programs (for example, family mortgages)," emphasized Sergey Grishunin.
However, maintaining the current positions, according to him, is fraught with certain threats. Among the key risk factors are the increasing external sanctions pressure and the continued attachment of budget revenues to fluctuations in the cost of energy resources.
"Internal challenges include a shortage of qualified personnel, high inflation and a technological lag due to limited access to advanced Western developments,— said Sergey Grishunin. — Further growth will be provided by promising areas of development. These include deep processing of raw materials within the country instead of exporting raw materials, the development of the transport infrastructure of the East and the Northern Sea Route. Achieving technological sovereignty in the field of IT, microelectronics and robotics, as well as the development of green energy in accordance with global trends, is of key importance.
Encouraging import-substituting production and expanding the supply of products unrelated to the raw materials and energy sectors is considered the most important vector of government support, Vladimir Eremkin said. Preferential loan rates are provided for the industry, which help both replenish working capital and direct funds towards investment renewal.
— Financial measures are also provided for SMEs and agricultural producers, although the volumes may often be insufficient. Strategic projects receive support from VEB funds.The Russian Federation and the Industrial Development Fund, which also makes a significant contribution to economic growth. — He said. — To some extent, measures to support demand also have a positive impact, for example, through preferential mortgage programs or wage growth/indexation in the public sector.
External threats remain the most difficult to control, he confirmed. These included increased sanctions pressure, falling global energy prices and a slowdown in the global economy, which is largely due to the growing scale of trade confrontations. The country has its own limitations: the rigidity of the labor market with a shortage of specialists in a number of industries, the technological lag expressed in dependence on foreign high-tech equipment, as well as the slow pace of implementation of import substitution programs. In addition, tight monetary policy constrains business investment activity.
— At the same time, great hopes are pinned on LNG projects and the development of the Northern Sea Route, the introduction of artificial intelligence (including in industry, government, business) and import substitution. Creative industries have a certain potential, where certain market niches have been freed up," the expert said.
The priorities of the Russian economy are gradually shifting towards technological industrial renewal, Tatyana Pershina, Associate professor of the Department of Statistics at GUU, told Izvestia. This process includes the modernization of machine tools, the development of energy engineering and the creation of new materials. The role of the pharmaceutical industry, IT and digital services is also increasing, and the importance of non-primary exports is increasing against the background of the country's active inclusion in the production chains of the BRICS countries and the Asian region.
According to her, special attention is paid to investments in human capital: from the education system and the training of qualified specialists to the automation of work processes. At the same time, the expansion of the domestic market by stimulating demand and supporting innovative companies remains a significant priority.
Sanctions restrictions make it difficult to access a number of technologies and equipment, which ultimately hinders the process of modernization of individual industries, the head of the Popular Front confirmed in an interview with Izvestia. Analytics" by Olga Pozdnyakova. In addition, development is negatively affected by unfavorable demographic trends, climate challenges, and limited business opportunities for long-term and low-cost loans.
— Having a lot of natural resources, Russia will always be interesting to the world for this very reason. But the future also belongs to the creative economy.
The ability to develop something unique, singular and inimitable is one of the main qualities of the cultural code of our people," she stressed. — In industry, this can manifest itself in innovative solutions, the creation of new materials and substances. digital — in the development of artificial intelligence and its fields of application. In general, infrastructure modernization, flexibility in innovation, R&D support, increased quality of education, and talent retention are needed to support the economy.
Izvestia sent a request to the Ministry of Energy, but no response had been received at the time of publication.
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