Watch out, car: imported premium cars in Russia may rise in price 1.5 times
Prices for imported premium segment cars in the secondary market may rise by up to 50%, and for medium—sized cars by 30%. The reason is the increase in recycling since November 1. A shortage of premium cars is expected in Russia, and the market will be divided into "elite" and "mass" parts in the medium term, experts and its participants told Izvestia. All this will affect domestic models, which will rise in price by up to 15%. Izvestia figured out how else the market would change and which models Russians would reorient themselves to.
Why will the premium segment of the car market shrink
The increase in recycling announced by the Ministry of Industry and Trade from November 1, 2025, will lead to a shortage of cars in the premium segment and a profound transformation of the car market. Dealers and private sellers interviewed by Izvestia came to this conclusion. There is virtually nothing to replace BMW, Audi, Volvo, Lexus and other popular models.
— In addition to the price increase in the premium segment by up to 50%, the cost of cars in the middle class is likely to increase by up to 30%. And this applies to both new and used cars," Alexey Ivanov, the owner of the Alliance Trucks commercial vehicle dealership network, told Izvestia.
At first glance, mid-range cars with engines below 160 hp are not subject to high recycling rates, but the overall transformation of the market will affect them, he believes. According to the expert, prices for the domestic car industry will also rise, but not so sharply.
— On average, we expect growth in the range of 5-15% in the next 12-24 months. Everything will depend on the degree of localization, subsidies and government programs," Alexey Ivanov said.
At the same time, there may be greater growth in the segments of localized machines due to high demand and restrictions on the supply of imported components.
Already, on the eve of an increase in recycling rates, there is an increased interest in imported premium foreign cars. According to Avilon, by 15%, and according to information from Interlacing, within 10%. People are trying to buy cars in time.
After the new rules come into force, the secondary market will shift from powerful premium segment models and mid-size crossovers to mass–produced cars with engines of 1.4-1.6 liters and power up to 160 hp, as well as to cars from China that do not fall under strict recycling rates, believes Maria Gabunia, marketing Director of Interleasing.
Popular premium and full-size cars with powerful engines, imported mainly from South Korea, may disappear from the secondary market. These are BMW X3 and X5, Audi Q7, the entire Volvo model range, as well as Korean crossovers Hyundai Santa Fe, Palisade, KIA Sorento, Sportage and others. The new recycling rates will make the import and sale of these cars economically impractical, she said.
According to Alexey Ivanov, in the current shortage, demand is shifting from European and South Korean cars to Chinese Odnoklassniki, as well as to cars of European brands in the mass segment, which are assembled in the same China. The "Chinese", who previously localized production in Russia, will be more attractive: the brands Haval, Chery Tiggo, Omoda. The Exeed LX model also fits into the requirements, as it has less than 160 hp. Demand for this and similar models with low engine power will increase, he added.
Currently, only Haval near Tula is produced in Russia. In Belarus, the Belgee x50, x70 and s50 are manufactured at the Geely plant, which are not subject to high recycling. But there are no representatives of the premium segment among these models.
"Instead of premium models that have left the market, it will be possible to import medium—sized and compact cars with engines with a power of no more than 160 hp," Roman Trofimov, an auto expert and professional distiller, told Izvestia.
For example, Audi Q3, Volkswagen Tiguan 1,4 or Skoda Octavia are supplied mainly from the Chinese market. These cars can be imported at a price of 2.5–2.7 million rubles, the expert noted. Also in this chain are BMW first and second series with 1.5 L engine, Audi A3, Mercedes GLB/GLA, KIA K5 2.0 and K3, Volkswagen Tharu crossover. Their recycling facilities for individuals remain the same. For premium cars with a motor with a capacity of over 160 hp, the recycling fee will rise to 1-3.2 million rubles, he noted.
The Ministry of Industry and Trade has developed a draft government decree on changing recycling rates. They relate to passenger cars of the M1 category, where the number of passenger seats does not exceed eight.
"For individuals who import a car to Russia for personal use, it is proposed to maintain preferential coefficients for the most popular categories of vehicles with a capacity of up to 160 hp. If the proposed changes are approved, they will enter into force on November 1, 2025 and will not affect motorists who have already paid for the recycling of a foreign car according to the current rules before the entry into force. by virtue of the new norm," the department stressed earlier.
Izvestia sent a request to the Ministry of Industry and Trade with a request to clarify why it was necessary to significantly limit the import of expensive premium cars with powerful engines. At the time of signing, the department had not responded.
How much will the scrap collection for premium foreign cars grow?
— If the initiative is accepted, we predict two scenarios. In the short term, there is a surge in demand for imported cars before the introduction of new regulations. Long—term - the inevitable price increase in the secondary market and the subsequent drop in demand by 30%, — said Roman Trofimov. — This is not surprising, considering that the price of premium foreign cars can rise by 1-3.2 million rubles.
For example: to import a three—year-old BMW X3 (2.0 liters, 190 hp) for personal use, a person will have to pay a recycling fee of 1.244 million rubles, for a BMW X5 (3.0 liters, 310 hp) - already 3.228 million, for an Audi Q7 TDI (3.0 liters, 250 hp) — 3.142 million. For comparison, now the import of such machines will cost 5.2 thousand rubles, the expert says.
— The volume of imports of popular premium brand models such as BMW X3 and X5, Audi Q7, Volvo, may decrease significantly. The share of resellers specializing in such supplies is likely to decrease," Roman Klyauzov, director of the Avilon Used Car Procurement department, told Izvestia. — But they won't disappear right away, as many cars have already been imported for sale.
According to Maria Gabunia from Interlizing, there are several Chinese premium car models in Russia that occupy the premium segment. These are the brands Aito Seres, Avatr, Voyah, Zeekr and Hongqi.
"They won't be enough for the domestic consumer," she said. — In the future, the middle segment of the market will switch to simpler brands, and wealthy consumers will continue to overpay for luxury cars priced over 10 million rubles, for which a new recycling facility will give a 10-15% increase in price.
Roman Klyauzov believes that Lixiang, Voyah, Rox and other officially supplied machines in Russia are unlikely to see a sharp increase in cost. Manufacturers and distributors will begin to smooth out price fluctuations. The increase is likely to occur gradually and over time, the expert noted.
Those who import semi-legally will benefit from the change in the calculation of scrap collection, says Andrey Olkhovsky, General Director of Avtodom Group. And those who do business transparently will face additional difficulties, because they have obligations to suppliers for car orders for several months in advance.
Hybrids and electric vehicles are expected to make noticeable changes — there will be an increase in the final cost of about 2 million rubles per unit, he believes. The entire segment of electric cars and hybrids accounts for about 8% of sales, according to a market participant. This means that they will become less accessible and no one will be involved in their localization with such a small volume of sales.
"A significant decrease in sales in the segment of electric cars and hybrids of Lixiang, Zeekr and others is a real prospect," Nikolai Ivanov, director of the new car sales department at Rolf, told Izvestia.
This segment has already sunk significantly, and the increase in value by 1.2–1.6 million is too significant. Such a price spike could be another stop factor for buyers, he believes.
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