Position and subtraction: there may be 100,000 more poor people in Russia
The number of poor people in Russia may grow by 100,000. This will happen if they take into account the recommendations of experts from the All-Russian Research Institute of Labor, who suggested taking into account "net" income when assigning support to those in need. This will increase the number of payees by 10-20%. Currently, those whose incomes are below the subsistence level of the region are recognized as poor, but the amount is taken before taxes are deducted. Whether the new approach will help reduce the number of refusals and reduce the incentive to use gray schemes to get help is in the Izvestia article.
Who is considered poor in Russia
Today in Russia, single citizens and families whose average per capita income is lower than the regional subsistence minimum (federal minimum wage in 2025 is 17.7 thousand rubles) are recognized as poor. This status is required to receive government support. However, its appointment takes into account earnings before taxes. As a result, some people whose salary is formally slightly higher due to the "gross" calculation are deprived of the right to assistance.
In this regard, Olga Selivanova, a leading researcher at the All-Russian Research Institute of Labor, and Alexander Razumov, an honored worker of the Ministry of Labor, adviser to the Director General of the Institute, propose to exclude personal income tax (personal income tax) from the calculation when assigning social assistance. They outlined this idea in the article "Social contract in Russia: the specifics of the practice of application and the vector of improvement of the regulatory framework" in the latest issue of the journal "Social and Labor Research" (Izvestia reviewed it).
In particular, the authors of the article propose to take into account the income of Russians after deduction of tax when calculating the right to a social contract. This support tool is aimed at low-income citizens whose income is below the regional subsistence level. As part of the agreement, the State provides financial assistance and helps to develop an adaptation program to improve living standards. In return, the recipient undertakes to fulfill the agreed conditions. A social contract can be concluded in different directions: finding a job, starting a business, developing a subsidiary farm, or receiving one-time help in a difficult life situation.
According to the article, the most common reason for refusing to conclude such a contract is the excess of the applicant's income over the regional subsistence level. Experts note that people were often denied assistance if their salary, the only source of income, was only 10-15% higher than the established threshold.
Izvestia sent a request to the Ministry of Labor.
— The suggestion of the authors of the article is reasonable. For example, if in 2025 an employee's salary is equal to the subsistence minimum for the working—age population — 19.3 thousand rubles - then after paying personal income tax, his income will amount to only 16.8 thousand rubles.. However, the social protection system does not take this factor into account when calculating the level of support," said Yulia Dolzhenkova, a professor at the Financial University under the Government of the Russian Federation.
Therefore, in her opinion, taking into account the tax burden will allow for a more accurate assessment of real poverty. If the initiative works, the circle of participants in the social contract program may expand to include those who are not formally considered to be in need, but actually live below the poverty line.
How many Russians sign social contracts
Social support should be focused on disposable income, not accruals. Excluding personal income tax will increase the targeting of payments, reduce the number of "false" refusals and reduce the incentive to go into gray schemes for the right to assistance, said Vladimir Chernov, analyst at Freedom Finance Global.
— Now, the calculation takes into account the income of "dirty" people, which makes families with white salaries look richer. Accounting for net income will equalize conditions between regions, make the criteria more transparent and reduce social tension among law—abiding households," the expert explained.
According to the latest data from the Ministry of Labor, over 200 thousand social contracts were concluded in 2024 — about 552 thousand people received assistance under them, more than half of whom were families with children. In the first quarter of 2025, more than 65,000 contracts have already been signed, covering over 187,000 people, Yulia Dolzhenkova recalled.
Excluding personal income tax will reduce the "accounting" income by about 13%, said Vladimir Chernov. First of all, this will give access to social contracts to families whose earnings are only 10-15% above the threshold and who are most often rejected. If the initiative is adopted, there may be 100,000 more poor people in Russia, the expert estimated.
Social support will be provided to those who are not formally considered poor today, but are actually below the poverty line. As a result, the number of such agreements may grow by 10-20% (up to an additional 40,000 concluded agreements and up to 100,000 people covered by them), he believes.
According to Rosstat, in 2025, 2.6% of employed Russians receive salaries below the minimum wage — 22.4 thousand rubles. Some of them may apply for a social contract, Yulia Dolzhenkova noted. This group also includes rural residents who live off the farm and are below the poverty line.
How to improve social support for the poor
To increase the effectiveness of the social contract, the experts of the All-Russian Research Institute of Labor also propose other measures.:
— uniformly interpret the "difficult life situation" in which funds are allocated — the main criterion should be the lack of money to overcome the poverty line, and not additional subjective conditions;
— simplify the rules for rural residents by removing the mandatory registration as self-employed when receiving assistance.;
— to develop technologies for accompanying citizens: to help with documents (for example, with registration of land), to provide standard business plans, to promote the creation of agricultural cooperatives.
In general, the social contract has already proved its effectiveness, said Vladimir Chernov from Freedom Finance Global. According to the Ministry of Labor, about 78% of participants raise incomes, over 42% get out of poverty. To enhance the result, the expert suggests not only eliminating personal income tax from the calculation, but also unifying methods between regions, setting up proactive income verification through the Federal Tax Service without unnecessary certificates, introducing pre-filled applications, flexibly accounting for seasonal income, and expanding employment and training-related areas.
— The social contract is an important tool, but it needs to be modernized taking into account changes in the economy. For example, today there is a one-time payment of up to 350 thousand rubles for starting a business and up to 30 thousand for training for up to three months. These amounts are clearly insufficient, as they do not take into account inflation," said Yulia Dolzhenkova from the University of Finance.
She added that the mechanism of registration of the social contract remains complicated and protracted. At the same time, a business needs not only to be opened, but also to be retained, and the maximum term of the contract — 12 months — often turns out to be too short. According to Yulia Dolzhenkova, the amount of tuition is also small: in three months you can only get low qualifications, which will not allow you to qualify for decent pay. Therefore, it is natural that more than 20% of citizens, according to the Accounting Chamber, are again seeking support.
Переведено сервисом «Яндекс Переводчик»
