Where are your hands: college graduates are not closing the shortage of workers

There is a steady trend of aging workers in Russia, primarily affecting industrial and mass professions, analysts warned. And this situation is not being corrected by college graduates entering the market — every tenth of such educational institutions drop out every year, and 30-40% of students leaving the secondary vocational education system, whom the region trained for their needs, leave for other areas. What is the problem of securing personnel in the field and career guidance — in the material of Izvestia.

Why aren't the cadres getting younger?

One of the leading trends in the Russian labor market has been the increase in the average age of in-demand middle-level specialists and workers. These are the results of the report "The contribution of the SPE system to the training of personnel in priority sectors of the economy" by the RANEPA Center for Continuing Education Economics. Its authors compared the situation with the shortage of personnel and the number of college graduates, which is one of the main resources for overcoming the shortage.

"There is an aging trend in personnel," they stated. — This problem will primarily affect industrial and mass professions.: construction, logistics, retail".

So, in 2024, the average age of a building maintenance engineer, a real estate manager, and a construction and installation contractor is 50-52 years old, and the age of a store administrator is closer to 50 years. In just one year, this figure has increased by 1-3 points. The average age of road workers has also increased to about 37 years.

"College graduates do not cover the needs of the labor market, as a result of which, only from January 2024 to January 2025, the demand for specialists in priority areas of the economy increased significantly: in industry — by 19%, in construction — by 17%," the document says. — The shortage of highly skilled workers is especially noticeable. The largest increase in the need for these personnel was recorded in the construction sector — by 19.2 percentage points and healthcare — by 10 percentage points."

The top 5 sectors of the economy with the largest increase in demand for personnel also included tourism, catering, medicine and pharmaceuticals, transport and logistics.

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The shortage of mid-level specialists is most acute in Sevastopol, the Altai Republic, Buryatia, the Crimea, the Novgorod, Moscow and Murmansk regions, as well as in the Krasnodar Territory, Penza and Kaliningrad regions.

Highly qualified workers are in short supply primarily in the Trans-Baikal Territory, Karachay-Cherkessia, Magadan and Kaluga regions, Crimea, Sevastopol, Ivanovo Region, Buryatia, Tver and Murmansk regions.

"The need for skilled workers will increase every year while maintaining the existing admission structure for secondary vocational training programs," the authors of the report said. "Since 2014, there has been an increasing need for specialists in all federal districts."

In 2019-2024, the graduation rate of colleges in mid-level specialist training programs related to the Engineering, Technology and Technological Sciences group (important for ensuring Russia's technological sovereignty) increased by 27.5%. But over the same five years, college graduation rates for skilled workers and employees who belong to the same group have decreased by 7.1%.

Why do SPE graduates not cover the deficit

Young people who have enrolled in training programs for skilled workers and employees are not too interested in getting a profession in their chosen field of knowledge, the authors of the report believe. They note that the competition for such places in public colleges is about two people per place.

"An analysis of the recruitment and graduation of personnel for priority sectors of the economy has shown that about 10% of students do not reach graduation and receive a diploma," the report says. "The main reason for the dropout was the unwillingness to complete their studies and enter the state final certification."

It also indicates that the existing career guidance system does not work effectively. According to surveys by the RANEPA Center for the Economics of Continuing Education, only 51.5% of college students were interested in their specialty, 31.6% chose it on the advice of their parents, and 13.3% chose it by chance, "it didn't matter where to enroll."

The largest part of those who did not reach the state final certification is accounted for by those students who dropped out of school of their own free will. In second place is the deduction for academic failure.

"To avoid losses, early career guidance with young people is necessary before entering college and during the first year of study," said Elena Lomteva, co—author of the study and a leading researcher at the Central Research Institute of the Presidential Academy.

Izvestia sent a request to the Ministry of Education with a request to inform whether it is planned to increase the number of budget places in colleges, as well as what measures are recommended to the regions to attract young people to jobs.

However, colleges and universities surveyed by Izvestia reported positive dynamics in the field of career guidance.

Andrey Shishko, an expert at the regional branch of the Popular Front in the Murmansk region, a lecturer at the Murmansk Industrial College, confirmed that the shortage of workers in the region is high.

— Requests from employers are constantly received. For example, in my specialty "Operation of gas oil pipelines and gas oil storage facilities" we used to recruit 25 people, and already in the fourth year, 14-15 were already employed. And this year, we have recruited two Professional groups, that is, 50 people," he said.

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In addition, the authors of the report noted a high outflow of young people "to more promising regions" for education and employment. From 30 to 40% of graduates of vocational education programs leave the region where they studied.

"Thus, the donor region trains personnel not for itself, but for recipient regions and loses young people," notes Larisa Bedareva, co-author of the study, senior researcher at the Central Research Institute of the Presidential Academy.

Only ten regions have 100% college provision, and 38 regions have no minimum provision for dorm rooms.

Another negative trend is the shortage of masters in colleges. The total number of teachers in this category decreased from 27.9 thousand in 2017 to 19.7 thousand in 2024. The average age of a college teacher is now 40-50 years old, the masters are either under 30 years old or belong to the age group over 60 years old.

Will colleges help solve the shortage of staff

The conclusions of the RANEPA analysts seem reasonable and reflect the real situation on the labor market, says Ekaterina Kashtanova, Associate professor of the Department of Personnel Management at GUU.

"The increasing age of mid-level specialists may indeed indicate an insufficient influx of young specialists from colleges. The figures on incomplete completion of studies and the outflow of graduates from the regions are worrying and require detailed analysis," she said.

She agrees that insufficient career guidance leads to an outflow from the profession and incomplete training.

— Many students choose college not consciously, but according to the residual principle — they did not enter the university, they did not take the tenth grade, — she said. — This leads to disappointment in the chosen profession and a desire to change directions. Not all colleges effectively carry out career guidance work that introduces the real requirements and prospects of specific specialties.

According to the expert, many educational programs still lag far behind the latest demands of the labor market.

— This makes graduates less competitive in the labor market, — Ekaterina Kashtanova said. — Another reason is that, despite all efforts, the low prestige of working professions still remains in the minds of young people. In recent decades, the attitude towards higher education has dominated society, and working professions have been underestimated.

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The need for workers in Russia has reached a critical level, the agency's HR said. Kadri.pro Alexander Fetkevich.

— The country's economy lacks about 1.5 million highly qualified specialists, and by 2030 the deficit may grow to 3.1 million workers. The unemployment rate is at a historic low, which is exacerbating competition for staff," he said.

The expert confirmed that the number of vacancies continues to grow. In 2024-2025, the demand for skilled workers increased by 17%, and in the manufacturing and IT industries, the shortage of personnel reached 90% and 87%, respectively. The demand for logistics and construction increased by 15-20% .

Director of Research hh.ru Maria Ignatova reported that at the beginning of autumn, there were 4.1 resumes per vacancy in the field of working professions.

"It speaks to the balance in the labor market," she said. — Employers have published more than 266.5 thousand offers for workers, while the demand of companies increased by 5% compared to July, but decreased by 12% compared to the same period in 2023. In the field of production and service, the hh index was 3.8 resumes per vacancy, which indicates a small shortage of specialists.

Indeed, the age of middle-level workers in Russia is growing, agreed Igor Rastorguev, an economist and a leading analyst at the AMarkets platform.

"But this may also mean that employers often prefer older specialists because they know how to work in the real production process, do not have high salary expectations and are more stable in the team," he said.

At the same time, the need for workers is extremely high now, Igor Rastorguev agrees. Industrialization in industry, the development of logistics, construction, housing and communal services — all these areas require a constant influx of specialists.

— It is impossible to close the deficit solely at the expense of colleges, — the analyst is convinced.

According to him, in addition to vocational education, other channels are needed: adult retraining programs, women's return to the labor market after maternity leave, integration into the migrant employment system, and internal mobility of personnel from related fields. Plus, it is necessary to raise the prestige of working professions so that young people are motivated to consciously go to college and stay in the profession.