Revolution on schedule: why they are waiting for street riots in Georgia again
Local elections will be held in Georgia on October 4, and the confrontation between the government and the opposition has reached a new stage. Opponents of the ruling party are calling their supporters to street protests, and they also promise to pay those police officers who refuse to disperse the rallies. Details can be found in the Izvestia article.
Operation Boycott
General local elections will be held in Georgia on October 4, which will determine the mayors of 64 cities and deputies of municipal councils (sakrebulo) in the country. Local parliaments will be formed according to a proportional system: some candidates will be elected on party lists, some in majority districts. The entry barrier for parties is 4%, and a simple majority of votes will be enough for individual candidates.
At first glance, it seems that the current campaign is inferior in importance to last year's parliamentary elections. Indeed, there is no talk of a change of government on a national scale. Nevertheless, this electoral procedure is the last one before the big break: the next elections in the country will be held only in 2028. Accordingly, it is now that the configuration of power in the country for the coming years will be finally determined.
Most of the opposition is boycotting the vote. Back in June, eight pro-Western parties, including the United National Movement (UNM), Girchi, Droa and Akhali, refused to put up their lists and candidates. "In the current reality, participation in this process will not meet the interests of our citizens, but will only create the appearance of legitimacy of the illegal regime," the special message said.
Two pro—Western parties, Gakharia for Georgia and Lelo— will participate in the elections. In their statement, they stressed that they were responding to a public demand and also wanted to prevent the ruling Georgian Dream from establishing full control over the country. Against this background, President Mikheil Kavelashvili even pardoned two Lelo leaders who had previously been sentenced to eight months in prison.
Tbilisi Mayor Kakha Kaladze during a press conference at the Parliament building after the inauguration of the sixth President of Georgia, Mikhail Kavelashvili. The year 2024
The election of the mayor of Tbilisi looks the most intriguing. The ruling party will be represented by the current mayor Kakha Kaladze, who is running for a third term. Two opposition parties nominated 31-year-old Irakli Kupradze. At the same time, passions are as heated as possible. On September 8, a fight broke out at Kaladze's election headquarters between his supporters and opponents, and several oppositionists were detained for defacing the election posters of the current mayor.
Another important point is that the elections will be held without international observers. At first, the country's authorities announced that they would not invite anyone, but in early September they nevertheless invited representatives of the OSCE/ODIHR, but they reported that there was no time left for the deployment of the mission. Georgian Dream stated that observers are afraid to speak honestly about the high level of the elections, because they will be harassed by European bureaucrats for this.
Wrong way, Ambassador
At the same time, the pre-election situation is extremely tense. The opposition is calling on its supporters to gather in the center of Tbilisi on the evening of October 4 to "peacefully overthrow" the current government. Former UNM leader Levan Khabeishvili also said that every policeman who refuses to follow orders from his command and does not disperse rallies will receive $200,000.
Representatives of those parties that participate in the elections speak in a similar vein. Irakli Kupradze, a candidate for mayor of Tbilisi, called on citizens on October 4 to first come to the polling stations and then gather on Rustaveli Avenue. "These two paths do not contradict each other, but strengthen our struggle. Tbilisi should show a numerical advantage both during the voting and on the street," he argued.
Candidate for Mayor of Tbilisi Irakli Kupradze
The country's authorities respond quite harshly. Even at the start of the election campaign, several opposition leaders were sentenced to seven to eight months in prison. In mid-September, Levan Khabeishvili was arrested on charges of calling for the overthrow of the government and attempting to bribe security forces. At the same time, one of the leaders of the UNM, Murtaza Zodelava, former Defense Minister Juansher Burchuladze and the leader of the Droa party, Elena Khoshtaria, were imprisoned.
In addition, at the end of August, the Tbilisi City Court seized the bank accounts of seven large NGOs. According to the Prosecutor General's Office, these structures helped the participants of the street protests, including supplying them with masks, helmets and gas masks, and then transferring money to pay fines. The European Union criticized the decision, calling it a violation of fundamental rights.
Participants of the opposition protest in Tbilisi. November 30, 2024
Prime Minister Irakli Kobakhidze also promised to toughen penalties for politically motivated crimes. And on the Imedi TV channel there was a story saying that the organizers of the protests are connected with foreign intelligence services. The article emphasizes that Thomas Palmer, vice president of the American NGO Atlas Network, oversees the street performances.
An additional storyline is related to the fact that on September 10, two Ukrainians were detained on the border with Turkey, who were carrying 2.4 kg of rdx in a truck. The detainees themselves stated that the final destination was Russia. But the deputy head of the State Security Service, Lasha Magradze, said that the connection of this incident with the October 4 elections and the "plans of radical groups" was being checked.
Everything that happens is traditionally accompanied by an altercation with representatives of the European Union. They threaten Tbilisi with the abolition of visa-free travel if pressure on the opposition continues in the republic and the law on foreign agents continues to apply. Representatives of the Georgian Dream now emphasize that the ambassadors of the EU and Germany are most active, "they are the ones who lead the agents, encourage hatred, evil and confrontation in society."
At the same time, the American authorities do not express their opinion on what is happening in Georgia. However, indirect evidence suggests that Washington's position is more restrained. The main event in this regard was the failure of the U.S. Senate in early September to consider the Megobari Act, which proposed the imposition of large-scale sanctions against the Georgian leadership.
What the experts say
Alexander Krylov, Chief Researcher at the Caucasus Sector of the IMEMO RAS Center for Post-Soviet Studies, believes that the Georgian opposition will fail miserably.
— The situation for the ruling party is now easier than in last year's parliamentary elections. Firstly, it is unlikely that the opposition will be able to offer anything new. Yes, there will be street performances, but they haven't stopped anyway. Secondly, the former unity of the West is now undermined. The European Union continues to push, but the United States is taking a more restrained position," he explains.
Shota Apkhaidze, a political scientist and expert at the Financial University under the Government of the Russian Federation, says that the situation is tense, and the Georgian Dream has serious problems.
— There are a number of socio-economic issues on the agenda. This is both the influx of illegal migrants and the growth of drug trafficking. Promises to fight corruption and reduce unemployment are poorly fulfilled, and emigration is growing as residents of the country leave for the West. Finally, the personnel policy raises questions when supporters of Saakashvili are integrated into the current system of government," he emphasizes.
The expert adds that all this undermines the position of the ruling team.
— All other things being equal, they would have lost, but Georgian Dream has an administrative resource in its hands. In addition, the opposition's disadvantage is that it is associated with the Saakashvili regime, which many still hate. In the end, I think the ruling party will win, but with a minimal advantage, and it may lose in some municipalities," he assures.
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