What a discord: Bolsonaro's verdict splits Brazilian society

Brazil is on the verge of a political crisis due to the trial of former President Jair Bolsonaro. On September 11, he was found guilty of an attempted coup after the unsuccessful presidential election in 2022. Now the former leader of the country faces up to 43 years in prison. Bolsonaro is already under house arrest, unable to see anyone other than lawyers or use a mobile phone. Experts predict mass protests in the country, thousands of rallies have already been held recently. At the same time, the United States is intervening in the domestic political confrontation. The risks of social and political division in Brazil are described in the Izvestia article.

The trial of the ex-president of Brazil

The denouement of the high-profile coup case of ex-Brazilian President Jair Bolsonaro came on September 11, when the third of the five judges voted to impose a prison term on the former head of state. The 70-year-old politician faces up to 43 years in prison. Such a sentence for the ex-leader was the first in the country's history.

The eccentric Bolsonaro, or, as he is called, "tropical Trump," was tried for the events of the last presidential election in 2022, which he lost. According to the investigation, Bolsonaro and his supporters organized a coup to retain power, allegedly even poisoning the current leader of the country, Luis Inacio Lula da Silva, as well as the assassination of Vice President Geraldo Alckmin and Minister of the Supreme Federal Court Alexander de Moraes. The latter should have been shot with a firearm at all. Jair Bolsonaro denies the charges, although he admitted to the investigation that he was considering constitutional ways to remain in the presidency after the elections.

The final hearings in the case of the ex-president began on September 9, before X-day, each of the five judges of the Supreme Federal Court had to express their opinion and vote for or against a prison sentence for Bolsonaro. A majority, that is, three votes, was enough to make a decision.

Alexander de Moraes, as expected, voted for the sentencing. For four hours, he tirelessly presented evidence of Bolsonaro's guilt in five crimes attributed to him by the Prosecutor General's Office: violent destruction of the democratic principle of the rule of law, attempted coup, participation in an armed criminal organization, causing qualified damage to state property, deterioration of protected facilities.

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In his speech, de Moraes recalled the statements of the former president about the dubious legitimacy of the Supreme Court and the transparency of voting, and the attacks of protesters on courthouses, and their attempts to make it difficult to access polling stations in those districts where Lula da Silva was in the lead.

Judge Flavio Dino has a similar point of view. However, the situation became ambiguous on September 10, when Judge Louis Fuchs called for the termination of the investigation and called the charges unfounded. The situation became clearer on September 11, when, an hour after the start of the hearing, Judge Carmen Lucia agreed with two of the five charges.

Jair Bolsonaro himself was not present at the hearing, as he had been under house arrest since early August. He is forbidden to use a mobile phone, as well as to meet with anyone other than his lawyers. At the same time, despite the restrictions, Bolsonaro managed to contact a number of supporters from among foreign leaders. According to the court, he communicated with Argentine President Javier Miley in order to obtain political asylum, as well as with an American lawyer close to Trump, Martin Luca, with whom the ex—president could discuss the imposition of duties on Brazilian goods.

The political divide in Brazil

The unprecedented trial of the former president has effectively divided the country into two camps: supporters of incumbent President Lula da Silva, his Workers' Party, and the camp of the extreme right led by Bolsonaro. The process has acquired great political significance, becoming an arena of symbolic disputes and deep social polarization, says Percio Gloria de Paula, senior researcher at the Brazilian Naval War College's business assessment group.

Political polarization has been going on since 2014, and the Bolsonaro case has become the catalyst for its transition into an acute phase. It all started with the Car Wash anti-corruption investigation in 2014: then the facts of corruption came to light, which eventually led to the impeachment of Dilma Rousseff in 2016 and the arrest of Lula da Silva in 2018. Since then, the contradictions between the left and the right have only intensified.

— Large-scale protests are likely to take place in the near future. His political allies are already encouraging street mobilizations. For example, during the recent Independence Day celebrations in Sao Paulo, large demonstrations were held against the decision to house arrest him, with a huge American flag flying. In Rio de Janeiro, on the contrary, the protesters defended sovereignty and democracy, as well as against the putschists and the US intervention, the expert says.

The celebrations of the next anniversary of Brazil's independence from Portugal fell on September 7. On this day, people dressed in the yellow-green uniform of the national football team (a distinctive sign of far-right rallies) Bolsonaro's supporters took to the streets of major Brazilian cities. The media writes about several thousand protesters — the photo shows that the roadway and sidewalks are densely occupied by people with flags and posters. On the tripwires are the phrases "SOS Trump", "Freedom for Bolsonaro", "Away with Lula".

It is also noteworthy that there were an abundance of US symbols at the yellow-green rally — there were people in masks with Trump's face, and protesters wrapped in an American flag, and appeals addressed directly to the leader of the States. The United States is directly involved in this political process, trying to use the context to impose tariffs and generally put all sorts of pressure on Brazil.

— This position does not reflect a sincere concern for democracy and freedom in the country. This is a geopolitical calculation aimed at achieving commercial and economic benefits in the fight against Brazil, and Washington sees Bolsonaro as a useful ally due to his ties with Donald Trump and his support for pro-American and anti—BRICS rhetoric," the Brazilian expert continues.

Trump has repeatedly expressed support for Jair Bolsonaro, comparing his case to his own — the siege of the Capitol in January 2021. The Republican even sent a letter to Lula da Silva accusing him of mistreating Bolsonaro. In July, the State Department imposed sanctions against de Moraes, who is now unable to obtain an American visa, and his property in the United States will be confiscated. Finally, Trump attributed the 50% tariffs imposed on Brazilian exports to the United States to the persecution of his like-minded partner. White House spokeswoman Caroline Levitt had not previously ruled out that Washington could use military force in response to Bolsonaro's sentence.

"The Brazilian government condemns the use of economic sanctions or threats of force against our democracy," the South American country's foreign ministry responded.

The verdict against Bolsonaro and the conflict with the United States are taking place at an extremely unfavorable time for Lula da Silva, since the next presidential election will be held in the fall of 2026.

— I think there is a risk of destabilization in Brazil, but everything is likely to be limited to the politicization of judicial events. There may be some upheavals in the formation of a coalition and the redistribution of power blocs in the presidential race," believes Percio Gloria de Paula.

However, the right-wing camp doesn't have a potential candidate yet anyway. And considering that his representatives, in particular, the son of ex-president Eduardo Bolsonaro, actively lobbied for the imposition of sanctions against Brazil, their chances of gaining popular support in the elections are low. Many Brazilians feel betrayed because of the position of Bolsonaro's son, says Percio Gloria de Paula, such behavior is perceived as a violation of national sovereignty.

In any case, whatever the reaction of political and public circles to the decision on the Jair Bolsonaro case, destabilization in Brazil is not beneficial for both the countries of the region and the BRICS partners. Brazil, which holds the presidency of the association this year, is actively promoting the idea of a collective response to US sanctions. In particular, the online meeting of the heads of state on September 8 was devoted to this.

Moreover, Brazil is the largest economy in Latin America and Russia's main trading partner in the region. The country's GDP grew by 3.4% last year and reached more than $2 trillion. Brazil mainly exports agricultural products, some of which also go to the US market. Any political and social upheavals may also affect economic aspects that are important for the less developed countries of the region.