How will Israel's attack on Qatar affect US positions in the Middle East? Analysis

The attack by Israeli forces on targets in Doha on September 9 not only provoked a sharp reaction from the Qatari authorities, who promised to respond to the strike, but also resonated in the Gulf cooperation countries. Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates and Kuwait strongly condemned Israel's actions. All of these countries — Israel, Qatar, and others — are long-standing economic and military partners of the United States. How the blow to Doha will affect Trump's Middle East diplomacy is in the analysis of Izvestia.

How is the United States connected to the Persian Gulf countries

• Israel (a close U.S. ally) attacked a residential neighborhood in Doha, the capital of Qatar (also a U.S. ally) at the moment when the Hamas delegation was discussing the terms of a peace agreement with Israel proposed by U.S. President Donald Trump. At the same time, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu had previously asked Qatar to mediate between Israel and Hamas to conclude peace. The victims of the strike were five members of the delegation and an internal security officer of the host country. Qatar said it would review its security partnership with the United States after the act of "betrayal" and discuss retaliatory measures with partner countries in the Persian Gulf.

• Due to their location and the largest oil and gas reserves, the Persian Gulf countries are important partners of the United States. The United States has long-standing relations with Oman, which became the first Arab state to recognize the independence of the United States. By the end of 1972, the United States had also established diplomatic relations with Bahrain, Kuwait, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates.

Risk miscalculation: Israeli strikes undermine negotiations and the ability to return hostages

And what other countries besides Qatar can attack the armed forces of the Jewish state?

• The United States and the Gulf states cooperate in the field of defense and counterterrorism: they provide their territory for US troops and are major buyers of American weapons. Qatar has the largest US Air Force base in the Middle East in Al-Udeid, and the country participates in military operations in the region on the side of the United States and NATO. Bahrain, home to the U.S. Navy's Fifth Fleet, is one of the United States' main non-NATO allies and participated in the military operation in Afghanistan under American command. There is also a large US military base in Kuwait.

• Middle Eastern countries are supporting the weakening U.S. economy. For example, Saudi Arabia is not only a leading supplier of oil to the United States, but also a major creditor. In 2016, the US Treasury Department announced for the first time the amount of debt owed to the Arab country – $117 billion. During Trump's Middle East tour in May 2025, new agreements were concluded with the Gulf states on investments in the US economy: with Saudi Arabia in the amount of over $ 600 billion, with the UAE — for $ 200 billion, with Qatar — for $ 243 billion, with Bahrain — for $ 17 billion.

Implications for the United States

• By hitting targets in Doha, Israel seriously framed its senior partner, and not for the first time. The Israeli strike on one of the main American allies in the Middle East has undermined the authority of the United States in the region. Qatar has already announced that it is preparing to review security agreements. The Western press notes a dangerous precedent — the fact that there is an American military base on the territory is no longer a guarantee against attacks. In addition, just six months before the Doha strike, Qatar survived the Iranian attack on the Al-Udeid base, which was a response to the actions of the US authorities. This is how Washington, in the eyes of the countries of the peninsula, turns from a guarantor of calm into a factor of destabilization of the situation.

• The attack by the Israeli armed forces on the Hamas delegation in Doha nullified Trump's efforts to conclude peace between Israel and Palestine and end hostilities in the Gaza Strip. The fact that the Israeli side did not consult with the United States about the strikes, but informed its senior partner at the last moment, indicates that Israel feels its complete impunity and easily manipulates the United States. The attack on Qatar also calls into question the validity of the "Abraham Accords," which Trump credited during his first term as president.

• The United States will continue to have to cover for Israel, as this country occupies a special position in American politics, not least due to the strongest pro-Israel lobby. But the incident in Doha could affect the personal relationship between Netanyahu and Trump, as well as the relationship within the Trump administration between Israel's lobbyists and supporters of a more restrained line in dealing with an ally country. The discussion of the strike in Congress has already led to a split within the Republican Party, with Democrats saying that the Israeli attack was a strategic mistake that would jeopardize negotiations and the release of hostages.

• Arab countries have no illusions about the involvement of the United States in the attacks on Doha. The Gulf states have already stated that the United States is also responsible for the strikes, despite the fact that Washington was informed about the strike so late that it was already impossible to cancel it. It is difficult to predict the future actions of the states of the Middle East, but there is a possibility that they will reorient their foreign policy towards cooperation with other major players in the region, such as Russia and China. Trust in the United States has been undermined.

During the preparation of the Izvestia material, we talked and took into account the opinions of:

• Vladimir Shapovalov, political scientist, Deputy Director of the Institute of History and Politics at Moscow State University;
• political scientist, orientalist Andrey Ontikov;
• the Americanist Malek Dudakov.