About glitter: the price of gold will reach $4,000 per ounce by the end of 2025
By the end of 2025, the price of gold may jump above $4,000 per ounce, experts interviewed by Izvestia believe. This is possible due to the deteriorating geopolitical situation and the Fed's harsh policy. On September 9, the price of the precious metal updated its historical maximum — it rose above $ 3,670 per ounce. Precious metal futures also exceeded $3.7 thousand. Traditionally, gold is considered one of the most reliable assets, since the beginning of the year it has risen in price by 35%, that is, investments in precious metals could bring more than deposits even at a record high key. Investments in which assets may be more profitable by the end of 2025 - in the Izvestia article.
Why are gold prices rising?
The price of gold set a record and exceeded $3,670 per ounce on Tuesday, September 9th. Then it decreased slightly, and by 17:00 Moscow time on September 10 it was already at the level of $ 3654. Since the beginning of the year, the cost has jumped by almost 35%.
Precious metal futures also updated the historical record — on September 9, they cost above $ 3.7 thousand.
The gold price (spot price) is the value of the metal in the present tense. While futures are a standardized exchange contract for the purchase or sale of precious metals at a predetermined price in the future. That is, a person is obliged to buy or sell gold at an agreed price on the date of execution of the contract.
One of the reasons for the growth was weak data on the US labor market. By the end of July, the actual level of NFP (Nonfarm Payrolls — an increase in employment outside the agricultural sector, which reflects real economic growth) in the United States amounted to 73 thousand jobs against a forecast of 106 thousand, said Fyodor Sidorov, a private investor and founder of the School of Practical Investment. By the end of August, there were 22 thousand instead of the expected 75 thousand. This reflects the unfavorable dynamics of economic growth, coupled with a huge and increasing government debt (over $37.3 trillion) and directly affects investors' interest in business in the country, he added.
In addition, next week, on September 17, the Fed will make a decision on the rate, and the regulator will probably lower it. That is why investors are now investing in precious metals, and prices for them are growing at a record pace, said Svetlana Frumina, Acting Head of the Department of Global Financial Markets and Fintech at Plekhanov Russian University of Economics.
In general, gold traditionally grows during periods of geopolitical instability. Currently, many factors are destabilizing the global economy. In particular, trade wars are forcing countries to reconsider pricing policies for many resources and goods, says Fyodor Sidorov. In addition, other conflicts are also affecting — the escalation in the Middle East, the growing tension around Venezuela, as well as secondary sanctions against Russia, which have been actively discussed in recent days.
Also, during periods of instability, central banks actively replenish their reserves at the expense of gold, thereby stimulating an increase in gold prices, added Nikolay Maslikov, an analyst at BCS World of Investments.
Gold price: forecast
Experts from universities and brokerage companies interviewed by Izvestia believe that the price of gold could rise significantly by the end of the year.
According to Alexander Abramov, head of the Laboratory for the Analysis of Institutions and Financial Markets at the Presidential Academy, the price target by the end of the year is about $4,000 per troy ounce. At the same time, according to financial adviser Anna Usenko, by the end of the year, the precious metal may even break through $ 4.2 thousand.
This is possible if the trade war between China and the United States intensifies — now the parties have concluded a truce until November. However, it is possible that it may be canceled further, says Nikolai Dudchenko, an analyst at Finam.
He added: an increase in the value of precious metals is also possible if the conflict in the Middle East worsens. Because of this, energy prices will rise, which will lead to higher inflation in the United States. In this case, the Fed will be forced to pursue a restrictive monetary policy (PREP), maintaining the rate at a high level.
However, the price of gold may drop significantly if China and the United States still conclude a trade agreement, as well as the nuclear deal with Iran. This will reduce the escalation in the Middle East and allow Donald Trump to act as a peacemaker, Nikolai Dudchenko added. In this case, the cost of precious metals may drop to $ 2.7–3 thousand per ounce.
What is the best way to invest money in 2025
Physical gold remains primarily a commodity for institutional investors, not for retail ones, Alexander Abramov believes.
— For private investors in Russia, moderate investments in gold also make sense now, but it is preferable to use mutual funds or impersonal metal accounts rather than physical ones. This is necessary in order to avoid the risks associated with storing the asset," the expert explained.
He added: gold is a cyclical asset that can grow for 10-15 years and then fall sharply. At the same time, for example, the cost of silver is also increasing due to trade wars.
Now you can invest money in various assets — precious metals, deposits, securities or currency. If gold stops at the level of $3.7–3.8 thousand per ounce by the end of the year, this will give a yield of 1.5–4.5%, said Nikolai Dudchenko from Finam. At the same time, the deposit rate for three months will be about 14-17% per annum, depending on the bank and the terms of the deposit. For comparison, at the beginning of the year, financial institutions offered deposits at an average of 21% per annum.
The ruble exchange rate by the end of the year will be about 93-95 per dollar, so investments in it will yield about 10%, he said. However, buying and selling foreign currency can "eat up" part of this profit due to bank spreads (because the bank's exchange rate differs from the rate set by the Central Bank).
According to financial advisor Anna Usenko, gold has always been considered a protective asset — due to market volatility and geopolitical instability, investors want to keep their savings.
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