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- Risk miscalculation: Israeli strikes undermine negotiations and the ability to return hostages
Risk miscalculation: Israeli strikes undermine negotiations and the ability to return hostages
Israel moved the fighting against Hamas outside of Gaza, launching an airstrike on the movement's top leadership in the Qatari capital. The operation in Doha caused a wave of international criticism: Russia called it a violation of international law, the Arab countries — an act of aggression. On September 10, the UN Security Council held an emergency meeting in connection with the escalation. Inside Israel, some of the public expresses doubts and concern, noting the risk of undermining negotiations and endangering the lives of hostages. The leaders of the Palestinian movement survived the strike. Against this background, the military wing of Hamas has begun preparations for military operations against Israeli troops planning to launch a ground operation in Gaza City in the near future.
Could Israel strike Turkey as well
The operation, carried out jointly by the Israel Defense Forces and the General Security Service (SHABAK), immediately caused intense controversy: some call it a strategic success, others see it as a step that can disrupt any prospects for negotiations and doom hostages to death.
Inside the entourage of Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, the strike is presented as a serious achievement, demonstrating the capabilities of the Israeli special services and strengthening the country's position in the war. However, behind the loud statements lies the main question — how such actions will affect the fate of people held by militants in Gaza. Until recently, Israel avoided attacks in Doha, realizing that Qatar remains the most important mediator in an indirect dialogue with Hamas.
Netanyahu, commenting on the attack on the heads of the movement in Doha, said that the days when "terrorist leaders" could enjoy immunity anywhere in the world were a thing of the past. According to the Prime Minister, this attack could pave the way for the end of the war in the Gaza Strip. Netanyahu noted that Israel's actions were fully justified, since it was the Hamas leadership that was behind the organization of the October 7 terrorist attack and continued to coordinate attacks against Israel, including the attack in Jerusalem the day before.
Nevertheless, the results of the strike are still unclear. Anonymous sources in the Israeli media admit that there is no evidence of the deaths of key Hamas figures. The movement itself claimed that its leaders were still alive, although the son of Khalil al-Haya, the leader of Hamas in Gaza, as well as several guards and assistants were killed. At the same time, the movement has not yet provided any confirmation.
"We are guided by accurate intelligence and use advanced weapons for precision strikes," IDF spokeswoman Anna Ukolova told Izvestia.
Palestinian security expert Mohammed al-Masri believes that the Israeli strike in Doha had a political rather than a military purpose. In his opinion, "the killing of two, three or four Hamas leaders does not change the strategic picture in itself, the main motive was an attempt to disrupt international efforts, including the process related to the recognition of Palestine by a number of states."
The expert also drew attention to the contradictory data on the results of the attack. "There is reason to believe that the murders took place, but not in the room where the negotiating group was located. It is logical to assume that the security services, having heard the explosion nearby, immediately evacuated the protected persons. Therefore, it is possible that part of the strike fell on another place after the main figures were withdrawn," al-Masri told Izvestia.
The surviving leaders may move to Turkey (where some of the movement's leadership is already located), Lebanon or Iran, which will make them potential targets for new Israeli operations. The strategy of "decapitating" the Hamas leadership has already demonstrated Israel's ability to strike at distant borders.
According to Ilya Shcherbakov, an employee of the Department of International Relations and Integration Processes at the Moscow State University Faculty of Political Science, "it is appropriate to assume that the Israeli side will not use a similar approach to operations in Qatar in relation to Turkey." Despite the fact that Ankara, like Doha, maintains strong ties with the United States, it is considered an important link in NATO, with military resources and accumulated experience in cooperation with Washington.
"A direct confrontation between Israel and Ankara is fraught with serious geo—economic and geopolitical risks for the Jewish state," the expert said in an interview with Izvestia.
Meanwhile, Egyptian expert Tarek al-Bardisi described the Israeli operation as a demonstration of complete unwillingness to negotiate and comply with international norms.
— This confirms that Israel is not interested in negotiations, a cease-fire, or the release of hostages. He is trying to put himself in the role of a regional "policeman" and intervenes in the security of the region, undermining stability," the specialist told Izvestia.
Israel criticized attacks on Hamas in Qatar
Moscow has already condemned the strike, calling it a violation of international law and a direct attack on diplomatic efforts. The Russian Foreign Ministry stressed that the shelling of the intermediary country, which plays a key role in negotiations on ending the war and releasing prisoners, "cannot be perceived as anything other than an attempt to undermine international efforts to find peaceful solutions." On September 10, the UN Security Council held an emergency meeting due to Israeli strikes on Qatar.
Criticism was voiced in the Israeli media themselves. The Haaretz newspaper noted in an editorial column that the killing of the negotiators while discussing the terms of the truce actually demonstrates Israel's unwillingness to engage in dialogue. "When the state tries — and, even more worryingly, sometimes successfully — to eliminate interlocutors, it clearly shows that it is not interested in negotiations," the newspaper writes.
According to the authors, the strike will not only bring Israel closer to victory, but is also "tantamount to a death sentence for the hostages." The newspaper emphasizes that conducting such an operation in the context of ongoing negotiations, and even with an obvious threat to the lives of the abducted, makes their fate "a secondary factor that does not matter to the political leadership." Recall that 48 hostages remain in Gaza, of which about 20 are still believed to be alive.
Haaretz warns that the diplomatic consequences will be extremely severe: "The destruction of Hamas representatives in Qatar will not benefit Israel either militarily or even politically. On the contrary, it will nullify the possibility of advancing negotiations, undermine the confidence of the mediators and damage the country's position on all diplomatic platforms. Who will sit down at the negotiating table with a state that eliminates its interlocutors?"
The Forum of Families of Abducted and Missing Persons in Israel also issued a harsh statement. His representatives warned that the cost of a strike on Doha could be unacceptably high: "We know from those who have returned how cruel the revenge of the militants is after the attacks. Today, the uncertainty surrounding the return of our loved ones has reached its maximum. The only thing that is absolutely clear is that there is less and less time left."
Thus, the operation in Qatar has a double dimension. From a military point of view, it demonstrates Israel's determination to pursue Hamas everywhere, including the territories of States that were previously considered inviolable. On the political side, it undermines the very foundations of the negotiation process, creating the impression that diplomacy is finally giving way to force.
The consequences for Israel could be much more serious: a decrease in the trust of international mediators and, above all, a threat to the lives of citizens still in captivity.
The day after the attack in Qatar, the Israeli Air Force attacked targets belonging to the Houthi movement in Yemen. Among the targets hit are military camps, a public relations headquarters, and a fuel storage facility. The IDF stressed that the strikes were a response to Houthi attacks against Israel, including the launch of drones and rockets on its territory.
Meanwhile, preparations for a new phase of the war are underway on the Palestinian side. According to an internal message sent by Izz al-Din al-Haddad, commander of the Gaza City brigade in the military wing of Hamas, to his fighters, the movement is preparing for a "fierce battle" that could last for months.
In a letter obtained by the Asharq al-Awsat newspaper, he stressed that he intends to be "at the forefront" in the defense of the city, and all available resources will be directed at delivering "severe strikes" against Israeli forces. According to the newspaper's sources, al-Haddad remains one of the few leaders who participated in planning the attack on October 7, 2023 and survived. Other Palestinian factions have also warned their fighters of severe punishments for attempting to retreat or flee. On September 8, Netanyahu called on the city's population to leave and announced a massive ground operation.
Переведено сервисом «Яндекс Переводчик»
