"Not at any cost": Russians have accumulated loans worth a trillion rubles
In August, Russian banks provided loans to the population of almost 1 trillion rubles, according to a preliminary estimate by the consulting company Frank RG. Compared to July, the volume of loans issued increased by 8.7%, or 75.6 billion rubles. And the growth of the mortgage portfolio was ahead not only of July 2025, but also of August 2024. Analysts point out that the market seems to be coming out of "hibernation" and has begun to revive after the July rate cut. However, the current values are still insufficient. For more information, see the Izvestia article.
Coming out of hibernation
In August, Russian banks provided loans to the public for 949 billion rubles, according to a preliminary estimate by the consulting company Frank RG. The volume of loans issued increased by 8.7%, or 75.6 billion rubles, compared to July 2025.
As specified in the review, all segments showed positive dynamics compared to the previous month.
Retail lending continued to grow amid the July rate cut.
The central bank began a cycle of rate cuts in the summer of 2025: the first reduction was in early June, to 20% per annum, and the second time the regulator lowered the key rate by 2 percentage points at the end of July, to 18%.
According to analysts interviewed by Izvestia, this value turned out to be enough for the market to start showing signs of recovery.
— The growth of almost 9% by July looks impressive, but it is too early to talk about a full-fledged revival of lending. August is traditionally a month of increased demand for borrowed funds, as the holiday season and preparations for the school year are affecting," says Sergey Solomatin, Sales Director at RexRent.
— The reduction in the key rate in June and July (by a total of 3.0 percentage points) boosted the lending market. Banks have started reducing interest rates on all types of loans. But the current growth rates are not explosive, but cautious, which, most likely, is exactly what the Bank of Russia is trying to achieve," the analyst notes Brobank.ru Yuri Isaev.
Mortgage growth
The most noticeable growth in August, according to Frank AG, was shown by the mortgage lending segment — plus 10.8% compared to July.
Banks have issued mortgage loans for 392.5 billion rubles. The figures for August 2025 are 10.8% higher than July 2025 and 6.3% higher than August 2024. The average size of the loan issued, after two months of decline, again shows an increase of 1.7% per month and in August 2025 amounted to 4.9 million rubles. In quantitative terms, the growth was 8.9%, with a total of 80.0 thousand loans, according to a study by Frank AG.
The mortgage positive, as experts emphasize, is currently based solely on preferential programs.: Without government support, the figures would have been much more modest.
— Russians have actively taken advantage of the opportunities of preferential programs, which confirms the high importance of government support for both citizens and the credit and financial system. Family mortgages and other subsidized products have become the main drivers of growth, offsetting the decline in activity in the commercial segment," says Nadezhda Kapustina, Professor at the Department of Economic Security and Risk Management at the Financial University under the Government of the Russian Federation.
— In July and August 2024, the massive preferential program with a rate of 6% per annum was no longer in effect. That is, the current market conditions and those of 12 months ago are comparable," says Yuri Isaev.
The volume of disbursements, of course, was also triggered by inflation. Housing prices have increased over the year, which has led to an increase in the amounts borrowed and, as a result, the total volume in the targeted lending market for housing purchases, the analyst adds.
For a noticeable increase in demand for publicly available mortgage programs, their rates should decrease to at least 10-12% per annum, Isaev points out, and by the end of 2025, the probability of such a market change is extremely unlikely.
Car loans
The car loan market in August 2025 grew by 10.2% compared to July 2025, to 173.4 billion rubles. There is also an increase in quantitative terms (+7.2% by July 2025). The average receipt in August 2025 shows an increase for the sixth month in a row (+2.8% per month) to 1.45 million rubles.
According to Ksenia Matenkova, senior analyst at Frank AG, the growth is supported by subsidized loans, as well as lower rates on market programs. The average check for the year remained virtually unchanged, decreasing by 0.2%.
Car loans largely depend on demand in the vehicle market. It is this circumstance that has become the main deterrent in car loans in recent years, according to the Brobank.ru . Although lower rates on car loans will increase demand for such loans, a significant change in demand, for example, as for consumer loans, should not be expected, the analyst believes.
A biased assessment
The growth in the segment of cash loans, according to Frank AG, amounted to 5.6%, to 357 billion rubles, it is observed for the third month in a row. In quantitative terms, 3.3% more loans were issued compared to July 2025, and the average loan volume increased to 191 thousand rubles (+2.2% compared to July 2025 and an increase of 11% over the year).
Consumer lending is recovering more cautiously: banks have tightened requirements for borrowers, especially in terms of income verification and debt burden.
— Loans have become practically inaccessible to citizens with overdue credit history, unofficial incomes or a high debt burden. Car loans remain under pressure due to the limited supply of vehicles and high cost," says Nadezhda Kapustina.
— Considering that the delinquencies of individuals on consumer loans in 2025 exceeded 1.5 trillion rubles, the logic will be as follows: "first deal with the old loans, then get new ones." Given this fact, as well as high inflation expectations (the Central Bank reported that they rose to 13.5% in August), the regulator is likely to act cautiously in the future, says lawyer and bankruptcy expert at Financial and Legal Alliance Evgenia Bodnar.
To the pre-crisis level
As for the real recovery of the market, experts emphasize that this is possible only if rates return to pre-crisis levels and manufacturers actively participate in subsidizing loans. And by the end of the year, according to the majority of experts interviewed by Izvestia, no significant changes are expected.
The regulator is likely to exercise caution, balancing the need to revive the economy and the need to further curb inflation. Therefore, interest rates are likely to stabilize at current levels, as inflationary risks limit the possibility of further monetary policy easing.
In such conditions, analysts expect moderate credit growth, mainly due to mortgages and the high—quality consumer segment.
— By the end of the year, ordinary mortgage loans will be at 17-19%, preferential loans — 7-11%. In the consumer segment, rates are likely to remain in the range of 17-20%. This means that the peak of expensive loans has already passed, and the market is becoming more calm," predicts Vladislav Nikonov, founder of the Bazar social network about finance.
Mortgages and consumer loans for household expenses such as repairs, appliances, and education will grow the most, he says. Car loans and large unsecured loans will remain in the background.
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