The crisis in France is sweeping away another government. What you need to know

A deep political crisis continues in France — a new round of it may dismiss the government for the second time in 12 months. On September 8, Parliament will vote on a vote of confidence in the cabinet, which, in fact, is the issue of the resignation of Prime Minister Francois Bayrou, who has angered the opposition with his plan to cut costs. The country may face snap elections, the result of which will definitively weaken President Emmanuel Macron, who is losing popularity. How France found itself in such a situation and whether there is a way out of it is in the Izvestia article.

Why is there a crisis

• The current political crisis can be called a logical continuation of the previous one, which began after the success of the right-wing parties in the European Parliament elections in 2024. Then French President Emmanuel Macron, reacting to the rise of Marine Le Pen's National Rally, unexpectedly called early parliamentary elections. The attempt to besiege his political opponents only led to the opposite effect — the presidential coalition lost many seats, and the leftists from the New Popular Front and the right only strengthened their positions.

• A situation arose when none of the three political forces won a parliamentary majority, and the contradictions between them turned out to be too high. France lived with the interim government for almost two months until the cabinet was headed by the compromise Michel Barnier. But he did not hold this position for long either, resigning three months later, in early December, amid budget disputes. In a situation of unprecedented political uncertainty, Macron was still able to propose another candidate - the experienced centrist Francois Bayrou, who eventually became the fourth prime minister in a year. However, like his predecessor, he occupied a wobbly chair that could break through at any moment.

• Bayr managed to stay at the head of the government for quite a long time, despite rapidly falling ratings. Residents of France were unhappy that he combined the post of prime minister with the post of mayor of Pau and that the scandal of child abuse at the Betarram Catholic school was connected with him. Bayrou survived three votes of no confidence in February and July, but the fourth vote, scheduled for September 8, will almost certainly draw a line under his premiership.

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• Now the budget for 2026 has become the reason for discontent again. Bayrou advocated serious deficit reduction and proposed a plan that should save €44 billion. It consists in freezing all government spending, except for the military, so that it does not increase even at the rate of inflation. Bayrou also proposed to cancel non-working days on the Monday after Easter and on Victory Day in order to support the economy (there are 13 non-working days in France due to holidays), and to close unproductive departments. At the same time, he refused to impose a 2% tax on holders of assets in excess of €100 million, which could provide almost €20 billion in tax revenues.

• Bayrou's budget proposals have provoked fury from both blocs opposed to Macron. Both the right and the left accuse the prime minister of unwillingness to comply with social obligations and suggest increasing the national debt to cover the deficit. They believe that Bayrou's plan will not fix the country's financial situation in any way and will only hit the most vulnerable segments of the population. As a result, the prime minister himself put a vote of confidence to the vote and accused the right and left in advance of being irresponsible to the voters if they did dismiss him.

How difficult is France's financial situation

• France's financial situation is difficult to call stable now, and it is indeed the most problematic among European countries, just as Greece and Italy were at one time. Paris has long failed to comply with the EU's 3% budget deficit of GDP standard to strengthen its macroeconomic stability. Given that France is the second largest economy in the eurozone, such demands are particularly insistent on it. The Bayrou plan assumes that the budget deficit will decrease from 5.8% of GDP to 4.6%.

• Countries usually compensate for high deficits with tax revenues, but in France the tax burden is already one of the highest among developed countries. The country has to borrow heavily, but this plan must have its limits. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) estimates that by 2030, France's public debt will reach 130% of GDP, which is twice the level that the country had during the 2008 crisis. Interest on the debt will increase from the current €30 billion to €100 billion by the end of the decade, if austerity is not included right now.

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• Western analysts are already seriously discussing that France may need help from the IMF or the European Stabilization Mechanism, a financial support fund created by the European Union itself. Such assistance will not only not be gratuitous, but it will also require structural changes from France aimed at correcting the financial situation. Paris will almost certainly have to drastically cut costs, so Bayrou's plan will still seem quite mild to French residents.

• The seriousness of the situation is evidenced at least by the fact that leading agencies are preparing to review the sovereign rating of France. Fitch will update the data on September 12, after which S&P Global and Moody's will almost certainly follow. The latter had already lowered France's credit rating during the previous government change. Paris risks becoming less attractive to investors compared to other developed countries, which will only exacerbate the current uncertainty.

What will the resignation of the Prime Minister lead to?

• Bayrou's resignation will leave the budget issue in limbo for some time. Although the National Union and the New Popular Front are united in their intention to oust Macron's appointee, they are no longer so unanimous on financial issues. Some of them will have to take political responsibility for the difficult financial situation and be the first to propose unpopular reforms.

• They see the appointment of new snap elections as the solution. Especially waiting for them is the "National Association", which retains its leadership in the opinion polls with about 33% support. The party embarked on a course of renewal and began pushing overly radical candidates who scare off voters with their racist statements, which is why in the past all other parties united against the right, as they do in Germany against the "Alternative for Germany".

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• Le Pen hopes for early elections also for personal reasons. She is currently banned from running until 2030 due to a criminal case on embezzlement of European Union funds, despite the fact that she is the country's most popular presidential candidate in 2027. The appeal process takes a long time and, at best, will end in the summer of 2026, but early parliamentary elections will allow her to request an expedited appeal hearing.

• Macron has not yet shown any desire to hold early elections, as this will certainly weaken his coalition in parliament even more, and the right may get the long-awaited absolute majority. It is highly likely that after Bayrou's resignation, he will make a deeper compromise with the Socialists and propose a candidate from the center-left, but this will only reset the counter until the next heated budget dispute, since Macron and the left have no common ground on economic and financial issues.

Is Macron's departure possible

• The current political crisis in France has a more radical solution — the resignation of Macron himself. Le Pen is actively calling for her, and the leader of the far-left "Unconquered France," Jean-Luc Melenchon, said he would initiate the process of removing Macron from office. The opposition has every reason for such demands — 67% of French respondents want a new president. Only 15% approve of Macron's activities.

Criminal reprisals: Marine Le Pen was deprived of the right to participate in the 2027 elections.

How will the verdict of the leader of the French opposition affect the balance of political forces in the country

• Macron himself categorically rejects the possibility of early retirement every time and declares that he will keep his mandate until the end, that is, until the results of the presidential elections in 2027. Although he himself does not articulate this, it is obvious to many in France that his resignation will not resolve the current contradictions in any case. The country will remain split in three and dominated by the growing national debt.

• Anyone who enters the Elysee Palace will have to painfully seek compromises and support from more negotiable opponents until the pendulum swings to the right or left. Given that in the absence of Le Pen, her colleague Jordan Bardella is the leader of the polls, the first option is more likely, which Macron is trying his best to delay.