Ice approach: NATO escalates threats to Russia in the Arctic
NATO is building up its military forces in the Far North — on September 3, near Norway, open monitoring tools recorded the flight of a US B-2A Spirit bomber capable of delivering nuclear weapons. According to information received by Izvestia at the Russian Embassy in Oslo, the alliance's efforts to militarize the Arctic region are coordinated by the United Kingdom. Norway plans to purchase new anti-submarine frigates from it, while the United Kingdom's military regularly conducts exercises in the northern regions. London is seeking to strengthen its position in the Arctic to control logistics and gain access to natural resources. But the intensification of NATO's military preparations in high latitudes poses threats to Russia's security and increases the risks of escalation. Moscow is responding by strengthening its presence in the region.
Why is NATO militarizing the Arctic
The United Kingdom has significantly increased its military activity in the Arctic region. Earlier, Norwegian Prime Minister Jonas Stere announced that London would sell five or six Type 26 frigates to Oslo to track submarines. According to the head of the Ministry of Defense of the United Kingdom, John Healy, frigates will help to "hunt" Russian submarines. London will order eight of the same ships for itself.
— London is a skirmisher and coordinator of the North Atlantic Alliance's efforts to militarize the Arctic. In Oslo, the relevant military activities of the allies in the northern regions are fully supported and actively involved in them," Russian diplomats told Izvestia.
Calling itself "the eyes and ears of NATO in the North," Norway monitors Russia, and above all its Northern Fleet, as well as other strategic facilities on the Kola Peninsula, the Russian Embassy in Oslo added. At the same time, other NATO countries are also transferring their forces here. For example, on September 3, north of Norway, open monitoring tools recorded the flight of a US B-2A Spirit bomber capable of delivering nuclear weapons. In mid-August, the NATO Joint Aviation Command announced the deployment of three B-1B Lancer strategic bombers of the US Air Force at the Erland base in Norway. The American aircraft carrier Gerald Ford is also involved in patrolling the waters of the Arctic Ocean.
The United Kingdom annually sends over 1,000 military personnel to conduct general combat training events with accommodation at the CampViking camp in the North Norwegian province of Troms, which will be opened in 2023. Ships of the United Kingdom Navy, including aircraft carrier strike groups, regularly conduct exercises and patrols off the coast of Norway. In February, London and Oslo announced the preparation of a new defense agreement. Britain is also considering the possibility of deploying its contingent in northern Norway on a permanent basis.
However, London's real capabilities in the Arctic do not match its ambitions, Vladimir Dzhabarov, first deputy chairman of the Federation Council Committee on International Affairs, told Izvestia.
— Great Britain does not have such power that would allow it to dictate conditions in the Arctic or other regions. For old times' sake, London is trying to portray itself as a great military power. I think it's going to end badly for them sooner or later," the senator said.
Britain's interest in the Arctic is caused by several factors. Firstly, climate change is contributing to the melting of glaciers and the opening of new logistics routes, Tigran Meloyan, an analyst at the HSE Center for Mediterranean Studies, told Izvestia.
— The UK could potentially become one of the active users of the Transpolar Route, which in the future could act as an alternative to Suez and Hormuz. Secondly, these are economic and resource opportunities, such as access to critical minerals and oil," the expert said.
The United Kingdom and Norway have historically had quite good and close relations. In recent years, they have been actively developing ties in the field of defense. The tension and uncertainty in relations between European allies and the administration of Donald Trump only strengthen such interaction on the old continent. For this reason, Oslo often chooses London as a partner, including for the purchase of military equipment, Nikita Lipunov, a junior researcher at MGIMO, told Izvestia.
— The Faroese-Icelandic anti-submarine frontier runs along the British coast, which is of key importance for the protection of sea and underwater communications between Europe and North America in the North Atlantic. London and Oslo are actually "responsible" for this offshore area, the expert emphasized.
This is due to London's desire to play the role of leader of the northeastern flank of NATO. Britain is developing formats of cooperation in the field of defense and security with the countries of Northern Europe and the Baltic States. For example, the Joint Expeditionary Force, which includes Norway.
There is an increased activity of other NATO member states in the Arctic, primarily Canada, the Scandinavian countries and the United States. France also recently presented its Arctic Defense Strategy, according to which Paris intends to ensure the "effective deployment" of armed forces in the region. And in July, Germany sent its squadron to the Arctic.
Tamara Nazarenko, a junior researcher at the IMEMO RAS Center for International Security, emphasizes that NATO does not have an Arctic strategy or a separate document on the Arctic, and there is also no northern command. More attention has been paid to the region due to the inclusion of two Arctic countries (Finland and then Sweden) in the bloc. The North Atlantic Alliance, like many countries at the national level, highlights the growing threat from China, including in the Arctic.
In separate defense programs, NATO and the EU are actively developing partnerships in the field of navigation and the development of equipment adapted to the extreme conditions of the Arctic. In fact, through the efforts of the West, this space is turning from a region of cooperation into a region with high conflict potential, Meloyan emphasizes.
How will Russia respond to threats in the Arctic
The intensification of NATO military preparations in high latitudes poses threats to Russia's national security and increases the risks of escalation in the Arctic region, the Russian Embassy in Oslo told Izvestia.
— At the same time, there are no effective confidence-building measures and military communication channels between the Russian Federation and NATO, which significantly increases the likelihood of dangerous incidents. Contacts between the military of Russia and Norway were interrupted at the initiative of Oslo. The Russian side has never rejected a professional and equal dialogue on security issues based on mutual respect and consideration of interests," the diplomats noted.
Earlier, the military of the Russian Federation and Norway periodically held meetings to maintain contacts and prevent incidents. The last conversation in this format took place in October 2023 aboard a Norwegian Coast Guard vessel. In March, the head of the country's joint staff, Vice Admiral Rune Andersen, said that the Norwegian military continues to check weekly with Russian military personnel in the Arctic.
In these circumstances, the Russian Federation is forced to build up its own forces in the Arctic region in order to prevent security threats. This is reflected in the expansion of the military and logistics infrastructure. By 2027, the Russian Defense Ministry plans to increase the continuous radar monitoring zone in the region several times, and the Northern Fleet is also being modernized.
Recently, NATO has also started talking about the appearance of Russian MiG-31ks with Dagger hypersonic missiles in the Arctic, which serve as an important component in protecting the interests of the Russian Federation and maintaining balance on this frontier.
"One of the main tasks of interceptor aircraft, in addition to patrolling airspace in difficult climatic conditions, is to disrupt attacks by large enemy naval groups," Tigran Meloyan emphasized.
Since 2022, Russia has toughened its rhetoric regarding NATO's military and political activities in the North, emphasizing that Moscow does not pose a threat to the bloc's countries. The Russian Federation is gradually adapting the management of the armed forces in the North. So, in 2024, by presidential decree, the Leningrad Military District was recreated, which includes the territories of the Russian Arctic and the Baltic. This decision was made after Sweden and Finland joined NATO.
— Both sides continue to conduct exercises close to each other and prescribe a more aggressive exercise scenario. For example, in early August, US strategic bombers conducted maneuvers in the Norwegian air. The purpose of the exercises was to practice maneuvers "in combat" and coordinate actions with the allies," Tamara Nazarenko noted.
Western countries continue to isolate themselves from Russia in the North, which is especially noticeable in the work of the Arctic Council, a key international platform in the region. Although military security issues are not included in its mandate, cooperation on non-military issues is also now practically severed. Nikita Lipunov summarized that there are still opportunities to avoid further escalation of tensions in the Arctic, since no one is interested in a direct clash.
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