Fertile soil: where has Russia redirected its fertilizers
While the West is imposing restrictions on Russian fertilizers, Russia is actively redirecting strategic exports to friendly markets. Fertilizer supplies from Russia to India, China and Latin America have already increased by 20% year-on-year, and are reaching record volumes. But Europe soon risks being left without key raw materials. For more information, see the Izvestia article.
Excessive self-confidence
Despite the sanctions and global uncertainty, Russian fertilizer exports continue to grow. According to the Russian Association of Fertilizer Producers (RAPU), in the first half of 2025, it increased by 8% year-on-year to 22.7 million tons.
The West is getting less and less Russian fertilizers, as the restrictions are affecting it. According to American statistics, in 2024, the United States purchased fertilizers in Russia for $1.1 billion (20% less than in 2023). As a result, Russia's share in U.S. imports decreased to 12.3% from 14.8% in 2023.
Europe is gradually introducing duties on Russian fertilizers, which has forced European farmers to buy for the future. In the first half of 2024 alone, imports to the EU from Russia jumped by 43%.
— And today, the share of Russian fertilizer supplies in the EU supply chains is about half of all supplies. This concentration is a statement of the strategic vulnerability of the European Union in the agricultural sector," said Boris Bogoutdinov, Managing partner of the consulting company 2B Dialog.
Since July 1, 2025, the EU has imposed additional duties of 50% on all imports of agricultural products and fertilizers from Russia and Belarus. As a result, according to Eurostat's forecast, Europe risks losing a quarter of its monthly supply volume or increasing procurement costs by 14 million euros. In other words, local farmers and ordinary consumers are under attack again.
But by 2029, as promised in the EU, duties will become prohibitive at all — 100%.
It's hard to replace
Europe is at a difficult stage of choosing a solution — limiting Russia's income in the medium term, or the risk of domestic food prices as part of the countries' food interdependence, says Boris Bogoutdinov.
A complete replacement for Russian fertilizers should not be expected in the next 5 years: alternative suppliers either do not have sufficient capacity or offer products at significantly higher prices.
Moroccan phosphates, Canadian potash or American nitrogen fertilizers are not able to fully compensate for the loss of Russian volumes without significantly increasing costs for European farmers, adds Nadezhda Kapustina, professor at the Financial University under the Government of the Russian Federation.
Focus on BRICS
Meanwhile, Russia is increasing exports of fertilizers to friendly markets.
The most promising destinations remain the countries of South America, Africa, South Asia and India. According to the head of RAPU Andrey Guryev, fertilizer supplies to India, China and Latin America increased by about 20%.
The entire BRICS accounts for almost half of the total global consumption of mineral fertilizers.
— In principle, a huge amount of fertilizers is being redirected to the BRICS countries, the global South. This trend will continue, especially given the continued growth of fertilizer production in Russia," Guryev said, recalling that according to RAPU's forecast, Russia's fertilizer exports will reach 44 million tons in 2025.
Global transformation
Experts attribute the change in the geography of Russian fertilizer supplies not only to Western sanctions, but also to the global transformation of the structure of international trade.
— The Indian market is of particular interest for increasing supply volumes due to large-scale government programs to support agriculture and the growing needs to ensure the country's food security. The Chinese economy, despite its own production facilities, needs to diversify its sources of supply to ensure the stability of the agro—industrial complex," says Nadezhda Kapustina.
Thus, Russia is implementing a strategy of reorientation to fast-growing markets with high and long-term consumption potential.
According to Olga Borisova, Associate Professor at the Department of Corporate Finance and Corporate Governance at the Financial University under the Government of the Russian Federation, further reorientation of fertilizer exports to the BRICS countries, Africa, Asia, and Latin America seems to be the most likely scenario.
This strategy will allow Russian business to gain a foothold in other promising markets, such as Thailand, Indonesia, the African continent, and Cuba. All of these are agrarian-oriented markets interested in stable supplies. Their needs will only grow.
Despite the high risks of secondary sanctions, the countries of Central America and Southeast Asia have a high dependence on Russian fertilizers, and therefore the window of opportunity for Russia remains open, Boris Bogoutdinov notes.
Russia, on the other hand, has a supply to meet the growing demand. According to estimates by RAPU, fertilizer production in the Russian Federation will grow to 65 million tons in 2025, and to 80 million tons by 2030. At the same time, by 2030, the Russian Federation plans to increase its share in the global market of mineral fertilizers to 25% from the current 18-20%.
Переведено сервисом «Яндекс Переводчик»
