Stay the course: how will trade between Russia and China change after Putin's visit to China

The trade turnover between Russia and China will amount to about $230-235 billion this year, experts interviewed by Izvestia believe. In the first seven months, it sank by 8% compared to last year, to $125.8 billion. However, President Vladimir Putin's meeting with Asian leaders and the SCO summit will help develop relations between China and Russia, analysts say. This is especially true for China in the context of a tariff war and minimal trade volumes with the United States. Whether Washington and Beijing will extend the trade truce and how it will affect Russia is in the Izvestia article.

What will happen to trade between Russia and China in 2025

In January– July 2025, the volume of Sino-Russian trade decreased by 8.1% compared to the same period last year. According to the Chinese Customs Service, it amounted to $125.8 billion. Our country trades with China mainly in raw materials such as oil, gas, coal, timber, and metals. Beijing, in turn, supplies us with cars, electronics, industrial equipment, as well as consumer goods, clothing and footwear.

The reduction in trade is partly due to a decrease in global hydrocarbon prices by about 10-15% in 2025, as well as the strengthening of the value of the Russian currency against the Chinese yuan (by 17%) and the "American dollar" (by 21%), said Vladimir Chernov, analyst at Freedom Finance Global. According to the results of eight months, trade volumes have not yet been disclosed, however, judging by previous data, the supplies themselves have slightly decreased.

Thus, in the first seven months of this year, China imported almost 58 million tons of crude oil from Russia, which is almost 8% less than last year, Vladimir Chernov noted. This volume of products was worth $29.5 billion. In addition, in January – July, the total cost of gas supplied from Russia amounted to $5.69 billion (-21%, the volume of supply was not disclosed), and liquefied natural gas (LNG) — almost $2 billion (-19%). At the same time, the volume also fell by 19% to 3.4 million tons, the specialist added. At the same time, Gazprom CEO Alexey Miller said that in the first eight months of 2025, the company increased gas supplies to China by 28.3% compared to the same period in 2024.

Despite the fact that trade turnover figures can vary from month to month, the partnership between Russia and China is actively developing. President Vladimir Putin has traveled to China to attend the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) summit. It is expected that the Russian Federation and China will sign important agreements at the event, in particular between Gazprom and the China National Petroleum Corporation (CNPC). Three key documents are being prepared for signing, said Presidential Aide Yuri Ushakov.

A trilateral meeting of the heads of Russia, China and Mongolia will be held in Beijing on September 2. High-level talks in Beijing are also scheduled for Tuesday. Yuri Ushakov clarified that Vladimir Putin and Xi Jinping will talk "over a cup of tea" and "go over the most important global and regional issues," including discussing contacts with the United States. They will be accompanied by Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov, Defense Minister Andrei Belousov and Deputy Head of the Presidential Administration Maxim Oreshkin. Following the results of the Russian-Chinese talks in Beijing, it is planned to sign a package of almost 20 documents.

In general, experts interviewed by Izvestia believe that the volume of trade between Russia and China will be able to reach a recovery trajectory by the end of the year. By the end of 2024, the trade turnover between the two countries amounted to about $245 billion, and this year it will be about $230-235 billion. There will be some growth in the physical volume of exports and imports, but the currency revaluation in the ruble-dollar and ruble-yuan pairs will also have an impact, economist Andrei Barkhota added.

How will the trade turnover between China and the United States change

Now China is trying in every possible way to rebuild its sales markets — it is trying to interact mainly with Russia, India, the BRICS countries and Africa, says Ekaterina Novikova, associate professor of the Department of Economic Theory at Plekhanov Russian University of Economics. This is happening as part of a new round of trade wars with the United States.

America, in turn, is also looking to switch to new markets, including Vietnam and the ASEAN countries. In addition, the United States uses its production facilities that have returned from China and Europe, the expert added.

The results of the trade standoff between China and the United States are already noticeable. According to the latest data, the trade turnover between the two countries has reached a 19-year low. In particular, in the second quarter of 2025, imports from China to the United States fell to $64.8 billion, a 36% decrease.

However, the absence of a trade truce would lead to a greater decline in turnover. In addition, this would lead to negative consequences for both sides — economic growth would slow down in China, and inflation would accelerate in the United States, says Kirill Kononov, an analyst at BCS World Investments.

Nevertheless, three possible scenarios for the development of trade relations between China and the United States can be predicted by the end of the year. If the countries fail to reach an agreement in November and impose extra duties, trade volume will decrease by at least 15-20%, Vladimir Chernov believes. According to independent expert Andrey Barkhota, it can sink even more — up to 40-45%.

While maintaining the trade truce, the turnover of the two countries will also continue to decline — it may decrease by 12-15% by the end of the year, analysts polled by Izvestia believe.

The third scenario is the cancellation of tariffs. In this case, by the end of 2025, US imports from China will fall by only 2-5% compared to 2024, and exports to China may even grow by 5-8% due to agricultural products, as well as equipment, raw materials, transport and software, Vladimir Chernov added.

Nevertheless, now the most likely outcome of events is to maintain a truce until the end of the year. This will enable both sides to better prepare to reorient their economies to other markets, Ekaterina Novikova from Plekhanov Russian University of Economics is convinced. In her opinion, the former mutual trade between China and the United States will no longer exist, so the decline in volumes will continue and accelerate with the entry into force of increased tariffs.

For Russia, the main risks are not related to duties, but to changes in prices and volumes of energy exports, said Yaroslav Kabakov, Director of Strategy at Finam. Although Urals quotes have regained some of their losses (as of September 1, the price of this brand was $65.49 per barrel), energy resources have fallen in price by a quarter since the beginning of the year.

The truce in the tariff war is likely to last for several more months, Andrei Barkhota believes. For Russia, in turn, this will allow us to reach the necessary investment and trade agreements with the United States, he noted.