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Secondary flaw: The 19th package of sanctions against Russia reinforces the split in the EU
The effect of the new, 19th package of EU sanctions against Russia will be minimal, experts interviewed by Izvestia are confident. Moreover, because of the threats to impose secondary sanctions, he will even strengthen the split among the Europeans. A number of countries are opposed, not only the loyal Hungary and Slovakia. In particular, in North Macedonia, they are unhappy that even their country, with limited finances, continues to allocate funds to support Ukraine, the local parliament told Izvestia. In order to increase pressure on Russia, the foreign ministers and Defense Ministers of the EU countries are meeting on August 28-30 in Copenhagen and Brussels. New restrictions and security guarantees for Ukraine are on the agenda. About what may be included in the next package of restrictions and how it will affect Europe itself — in the Izvestia article.
Why doesn't everyone in the EU support sanctions against Russia
Europe continues to exert sanctions pressure on Russia. On August 28-30, the Foreign and Defense ministers discussed the 19th package of sanctions at informal meetings in Copenhagen and Brussels. "We will discuss how to further increase pressure on Russia, and how we can support Ukraine even more actively and effectively," EC representative Anita Hipper said.
The head of the European Commission, Ursula von der Leyen, also voiced ordinary threats against Moscow. According to her, the EC will do everything to strengthen the sanctions regime. "We will soon have the 19th package of painful sanctions against Russia, and at the same time we are moving forward on the issue of using frozen Russian assets for the defense and reconstruction of Ukraine," she said.
At the same time, it is obvious that not all EU members share this policy, which is gradually leading to a split within the bloc. In June 2025, Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban said that anti-Russian sanctions were destroying his country and the whole of Europe. "The EU is coping poorly with the conflict in Ukraine, and the sanctions policy is also failing. We have lost €20 billion in three years due to sanctions. A strategic agreement with Russia is needed, but only a strong Europe can conclude it," the politician stressed.
The same position is shared by Slovak Prime Minister Robert Fico, who earlier refused to support the EC's decision to stop any Russian gas supplies from January 1, 2028. "Slovakia's refusal to support a new package of sanctions against Russia is linked to the need to protect national interests," he said on July 6.
At the same time, not only European countries traditionally loyal to the Russian Federation are dissatisfied with the pressure. The Parliament of Northern Macedonia does not support the state's policy of providing assistance to Ukraine and supplying it with weapons, Dimitar Apasiev, a member of the Levitsa party, told Izvestia.
— Levitsa strongly condemns such a policy, as it represents direct interference in a foreign conflict. Macedonia has absolutely no national interests in this conflict, especially when it comes at the cost of disarming our own army and burdening our citizens with the consequences of inflation, sanctions and insecurity," he said.
Previous EU sanctions packages have harmed the countries of the association. For example, in Germany, which is habitually considered the "locomotive" of the European economy, electricity prices have increased by 31% since 2021 due to the abandonment of Russian energy resources, according to the analysis of the Verivox portal, cited by Handelsblatt. At the same time, heating costs increased by 61%, because most buildings in Germany are now heated with more expensive gas. This is not least due to the undermining of the Nord Streams.
It is obvious that direct sanctions against Russia have exhausted themselves, so the EU intends to consider the introduction of secondary ones, the media write. And this may already displease a much larger number of members of the association.
For more than half a century, the EU's trade policy has been under the control of the European Commission, as member states have delegated to it the right to conduct foreign trade. Therefore, if some of them realize that they themselves are suffering from secondary sanctions, they can complain to the EU court and even try to change the legislation. This will be very difficult, as the EC's right to conduct trade negotiations on behalf of the EU is written into all documents. Nevertheless, all this can lead to conflicts between the members of the bloc, says Stanislav Tkachenko, Doctor of Economics, expert at the Valdai Club.
Why the new EU sanctions package won't work
The European Union may impose an embargo on the export of certain goods to third countries that most facilitate parallel imports to Russia, Ekaterina Arapova, head of the research program at the MGIMO Institute of International Studies at the Russian Foreign Ministry, told Izvestia.
— I think this issue will be raised during the discussion on the 29th and 30th, but I am absolutely convinced that it will not be the basis for the next and even subsequent sanctions packages. Because it would no longer be a shot in the foot for the EU, it would be a shot in the head," the expert said.
According to her, if the EU bans the supply of a number of high-tech goods to Turkey, China or India, it will cause enormous damage to the EU countries themselves. However, in order to frighten and create an informational effect, European officials may say that they are discussing this option.
In addition, the new package may include already developed schemes for the introduction of secondary sanctions against individual legal entities. For example, they may affect tankers that the EU classifies as a "shadow fleet" and foreign banks that are involved in conducting operations with Russia in third countries. In particular, this summer the European Union has already imposed sanctions against seven companies from China and four from Turkey that trade with Russia.
Companies will find workarounds sooner or later anyway, and the EU will not be able to control the "shadow fleet" purely physically, Georgy Ostapkovich, director of the HSE Center for Economic Research and Economic Analysis, told Izvestia.
— It will cost them a lot of money. That is, there will be some logistical difficulties, but no more," the expert said.
He added that today, in the context of globalization, any country can learn to circumvent any sanctions only if they are not imposed at the UN level. The new package of EU sanctions may also contain a ban on the free movement of Russian diplomats inside the Schengen area, Czech Foreign Minister Jan Lipavsky said. In response, the Russian Federation will use mirror measures, retorted the official representative of the Russian Foreign Ministry, Maria Zakharova.
On August 27, the US imposed 50% duties on India for New Delhi's continued purchase of oil from Russia. However, this method did not work, as the Russian Federation gave India a discount on the purchase of energy resources, as a result of which supplies did not stop. Washington was very surprised by this turn of events, said Peter Navarro, senior adviser to the US president on trade.
— India's firm position is, of course, a shock and a cold shower for the United States. I think that the Europeans have not yet understood this," Stanislav Tkachenko said.
Increasing EU pressure on Russia
The EU's desire to adopt a new package of sanctions as soon as possible may be related to Brussels' desire to play a more significant role in resolving the Ukrainian conflict. Former Italian Prime Minister Mario Draghi previously noted that the weight of the European Union in geopolitics has been questioned since Donald Trump came to power.
In one way or another, the EU would continue its general policy of adopting new anti-Russian restrictions. However, the fact that Europe has found itself on the sidelines of the peace process may provoke the accelerated adoption of a new package of sanctions, Ekaterina Arapova says.
— If in other conditions they had given themselves another September-October to build up, now they are all asleep and waiting for the next package to be introduced in early September, — the expert believes.
According to her, Hungary's next veto could disrupt such plans. In addition to sanctions, at a meeting on August 29-30, EU members will discuss the issue of sending a peacekeeping contingent to Ukraine from a neutral country, Politico writes. At the same time, it is obvious that such rhetoric will not be translated into practice, since this requires the approval of the UN Security Council, which Russia is a member of, Stanislav Tkachenko recalled.
— There will be no contingent. Nevertheless, the Europeans, for all their disregard for international law, understand that this contingent should appear in Ukraine after the end of the conflict in order to record its results. And this is impossible without the will of Russia and without the permission of the UN Security Council, where Russia is also present," the expert is convinced.
Russia has repeatedly stressed that all the sanctions imposed by the European Union have proved ineffective. They failed to "bury" the Russian economy, Vladimir Putin said earlier. At the same time, they pushed a number of EU countries into recession. Russia's GDP has been growing at a rate above 4% for the second year in a row, while growth in the eurozone is falling short of 1%. Moreover, further attempts to put pressure on Moscow, especially in the energy sector, are unlikely to benefit Brussels.
Переведено сервисом «Яндекс Переводчик»
