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Unequal conversation: The United States intends to convince Ukraine to make concessions
Washington is trying to persuade Kiev to come to an agreement with Russia. And the United States has a sufficient arsenal of means to put pressure on Ukraine, in addition to duties, analysts interviewed by Izvestia believe. Earlier, Donald Trump announced that Washington was no longer involved in financing the Armed Forces. At the same time, the US waiver of sanctions against Russia has a positive impact on the negotiation process, the Russian Foreign Ministry told Izvestia. At the same time, the legitimacy of the signatories of a possible agreement from Ukraine is important for Moscow. Experts point out that without firm legality, any agreements with Kiev will be legally controversial.
How is the dialogue between Russia and the United States on Ukraine progressing?
The desire of the Donald Trump administration to refrain from imposing new anti-Russian sanctions has a positive effect on the negotiation process, Russian Foreign Ministry Ambassador-at-Large Rodion Miroshnik told Izvestia.
— As experience shows, there is no point in putting pressure on Russia. The fact that Trump refrains from any drastic actions only underlines that they are determined to find options for a political and diplomatic solution. Previous attempts to threaten have led to nothing," the diplomat told Izvestia.
There is a feeling that President Putin explained to his American colleague the futility of putting pressure on our country, says Oleg Karpovich, vice-rector of the Diplomatic Academy.
"Moreover, the threats of secondary sanctions against Moscow's partners have already led to the consolidation of India and China, as well as to the growth of anti—American sentiments in the countries of the Global South," the expert believes.
Washington continues to make diplomatic efforts to end the conflict. On August 26, Special Envoy of the President of the United States Steve Witkoff announced that he would meet with Ukrainian representatives in New York this week. The Kiev delegation, according to Bloomberg, will include the head of the office of the President of Ukraine, Andriy Ermak, and the secretary of the National Security and Defense Council (NSDC), Rustem Umerov. Security guarantees and a possible meeting of the leaders of the Russian Federation, the United States and Ukraine will be on the agenda.
Andrey Ermak and Rustem Umerov
At the same time, the United States maintains contacts with Russia on an ongoing basis, Witkoff noted. Moscow highly appreciates the peacekeeping efforts on the part of the US president and believes that they can really help resolve the conflict over Ukraine, said Dmitry Peskov, a spokesman for the Russian leader.
"We believe that these efforts are very important and can really help resolve this complex, long—standing conflict that was not provoked by us," he emphasized.
At the same time, there is no progress in direct negotiations between Russia and Ukraine yet. Although the heads of delegations of the two countries are in constant contact, the dates of the next round of dialogue have not been determined, Peskov stressed. It should be recalled that the negotiating groups of the Russian Federation and Ukraine held three meetings in Istanbul, which resulted, in particular, in humanitarian agreements on the exchange of prisoners and bodies of the dead.
In early September, Russia and Ukraine will hold several family reunions, Tatyana Moskalkova, the Commissioner for Human Rights in the Russian Federation, told Izvestia.
— Now we have about eight families who are asking to reunite them. This is a very difficult story, because most of them have expired their passports, and they need to get their documents processed. If these are elderly people, then it is necessary to arrange their travel, provide an ambulance, and resolve the issue with the International Committee of the Red Cross. But we have agreed that in early September we will hold a number of reunions of such families," Moskalkova said.
The Trump administration has even set a desired deadline for ending the conflicts in Ukraine and the Middle East: by the end of 2025. This was stated by Witkoff at a meeting of the US Cabinet of Ministers. Earlier, American Vice President Jay Dee Vance admitted that it would not be possible to achieve an end to the conflict in Ukraine "overnight", but expressed the hope that this would happen no later than in six months.
By setting deadlines for a settlement, Trump is working for his electorate, trying to live up to the image of a peacemaker and a strong leader. His other statements show that he realized how complex the contradictions underlying the Ukrainian conflict are, Oleg Karpovich said in an interview with Izvestia.
There are reports in the Western media that a new meeting between the presidents of Russia and the United States could allegedly take place in Beijing during the celebration of the 80th anniversary of the end of World War II. Vladimir Putin has already confirmed his visit to China, and Donald Trump has announced his intention to visit China this year or "soon after" the beginning of 2026. Dmitry Peskov did not comment on the possibility of holding a meeting between the Russian leader and his American counterpart in Beijing.
It is important that Moscow and Washington are engaged in dialogue on a wide range of issues. In particular, the presidents of the two countries discussed the issue of reducing nuclear weapons stocks, Donald Trump said. The topic of strategic arms is particularly relevant due to the approaching expiration date of the Strategic and Offensive Arms Reduction Treaty (START III) in 2026. The United States intends to involve China in the negotiations, but so far Beijing has not shown interest in this.
Economic cooperation is also being restored. For example, Russia and the United States could cooperate in the fields of nuclear energy and metallurgy, including cooperation on rare and rare earth metals, said First Deputy Prime Minister Denis Manturov. Earlier, Dmitry Bakanov, the head of Roscosmos, paid a productive visit to the United States. And according to The Wall Street Journal, ExxonMobil and Rosneft discussed the possibility of resuming work on the Sakhalin-1 project if approved by the governments of the two countries.
Will Washington be able to force Kiev to make a deal with Russia
Two important stumbling blocks remain in the process of the Ukrainian settlement. The first of them is Vladimir Zelensky's lack of legitimacy. According to the Constitution of Ukraine, his powers as head of state ended in May 2024. Russia does not consider Vladimir Zelensky to be the legitimate president, but recognizes his de facto leadership status, Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said in an interview with NBC. "When it comes to signing legal documents, everyone should have a clear understanding that the signatory is legitimate," the minister said.
Vladimir Zelensky
In response to Zelensky's demands for an immediate meeting with Vladimir Putin, Sergey Lavrov reiterated that such negotiations are possible only after careful consideration. Donald Trump, in response to comments about Zelensky's illegitimacy, said it didn't matter.
An illegitimate agreement can be declared null and void not only by our side, but also by all other parties to the agreement, said Rodion Miroshnik.
— Agreements must comply with all norms of international law and be binding, including for European countries that are very attentive to everything, for potential guarantor countries. To avoid the temptation to invalidate the agreement at some point when you don't want to fulfill your obligations," he said.
The illegitimacy of the Ukrainian authorities means that the proposed peace agreement will be legally controversial, Ivan Loshkarev, associate professor at the MGIMO Department of Political Theory at the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the Russian Federation, said in a comment to Izvestia.
— Therefore, references, for example, by the Ukrainian authorities to the norms of the constitution are as conditional as the legitimacy of these authorities. In any case, the agreement, if it can be concluded, will be political and legal, not strictly legal," the expert noted.
In addition to the issue of the legality of the government, the problem of guarantees to Kiev remains unresolved. Earlier, the Russian president said that it was necessary to "work to ensure Ukraine's security." However, instead of the principles of common security, European leaders continue to insist on sending troops to Ukrainian territory. German Chancellor Friedrich Merz is proposing to increase pressure on Moscow, and Italian Prime Minister Giorgio Meloni is promoting guarantees based on NATO's fifth article on collective defense, but without Ukraine's formal membership.
Russian officials have repeatedly stressed that Moscow is against the introduction of Western troops into Ukraine under any flag. After all, it is the promotion of NATO's military infrastructure that is one of the root causes of the current conflict situation in Ukraine.
Donald Trump is not imposing sanctions against Russia because they have not worked as much as their authors hoped. In addition, restrictions harm the EU and the United States themselves, Vladimir Dzhabarov, first deputy chairman of the Federation Council Committee on International Affairs, told Izvestia.
— It's not for nothing that he started talking about the need to impose sanctions against Ukraine. I think that many European countries and Kiev will be careful. But if they don't hear us and try to arm Ukraine and even deploy troops there, then peace is still far away," the senator told Izvestia.
Vladimir Jabarov noted that in the next two months it will become clear whether relations between the Russian Federation and the United States are moving towards normalization.
Against this background, the White House is considering various options for pressure on Ukraine. The United States will no longer participate in its financing, and weapons will be supplied at the expense of NATO countries, Donald Trump said. The American leader did not rule out sanctions against Kiev either.
"I can save people by applying sanctions or a very powerful system of tariffs that are very expensive for Russia, or Ukraine, or whoever,— Trump said.
The instruments of U.S. influence on Kiev are multifaceted. This includes the disclosure of sensitive information about corrupt activities and foreign assets of Ukrainian politicians. This includes the cessation of intelligence sharing and assistance in planning operations. There may also be a delay in making decisions on assistance to Ukraine within the framework of NATO.
"Tougher forms of pressure may include the imposition of tariffs on certain goods, personal sanctions,— Ivan Loshkarev noted.
At the same time, Trump has to put pressure not only on Kiev. According to Politico, the Republican allegedly convinced Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban not to put obstacles in the way of Ukraine's accession to the EU. Her membership in the association is one of the requested security guarantees. Earlier, similar information was published by Bloomberg. However, Budapest has already denied that such a conversation took place, as well as the fact that Hungary lifted its veto on Ukraine's accession to the EU.
Переведено сервисом «Яндекс Переводчик»
