Europe compensates for the drop in the birth rate with migrants. Analysis

European countries are experiencing historically low birth rates, which do not allow them to reproduce their populations on their own. At the same time, the number continues to grow due to the influx of migrants. Although they contribute to the economy of the European Union, right-wing politicians oppose their presence and receive the approval of voters for this. How Europe found itself in such a situation is in the Izvestia article.

What is the state of Europe's demography?

• The birth rate in the EU countries is currently at the lowest levels by historical standards. It has been steadily declining since the mid-1960s, with the exception of a brief period in the early 2000s when there were signs of growth. In 2010, the total fertility rate (TFR) was 1.57, after which it did not exceed this value. In 2022, it fell to 1.46, and by the end of 2023— it fell to 1.38.

• The TFR varies in individual EU countries, but everywhere it is below the level necessary for the reproduction of the population. Bulgaria (1.81), France (1.66) and Hungary (1.55) have the highest rates, while Malta (1.06), Spain (1.12) and Lithuania (1.18) have the lowest. Most of the other European countries outside the EU are also in the range between Bulgaria and Malta.

• At the same time, according to Eurostat, the proportion of children born to foreign mothers is 23%. These statistics take into account mothers who were born in another country, both inside and outside the European Union. Luxembourg has the highest rate (67% of children were born to foreigners), and Bulgaria and Slovakia have the least (3%). This indicator is steadily growing in most EU countries.

• In some countries, the birth rate is not just falling, but collapsing. In Germany, the TFR is at its lowest level since 1994, and in Austria, the number of babies in 2024 was the lowest on record. In France, the birth rate is at its lowest level since the First World War, and in Finland — since 1776.

In general, Europe is experiencing the same trend as the rest of the world. The global TFR is 2.24 and is the lowest in the history of mankind — in the 20th century, the peak value was 5.02 in the early 1960s. It is predicted that after the 2030s, the world's population will begin to decline. Fertility rates above 2.1 remain mainly only in poor countries in Africa, Asia and Oceania, while low fertility is a given in developed countries. Demographers attribute the decline in the birth rate to a drop in mortality due to scientific advances, the exclusion of children from economic life, and the emergence of retirement benefits.

How migrants affect the population

• At the same time, the total population of Europe is growing. On January 1, 2024, 449 million people were registered in the European Union, which is 0.4% or 1.6 million more than a year earlier. The reason is the increased migration flows, the arrival of Ukrainian refugees, as well as a decrease in mortality and an increase in average life expectancy.

• Migration has allowed the European Union to increase its population by almost 5 million people in 2023. Another 1.1 million people born outside the EU have changed their country of residence within the framework of the association. Germany and Spain received the most migrants — more than 1.25 million people, or about 21% of the total. At the same time, Germany notes an increase in the flow of highly qualified migrants and international students, as well as a decrease in the level of illegal migration.

• The influx of migrants had a steady upward trend before the coronavirus pandemic. If in 2013 less than 3 million people moved to the EU countries, then in 2019 they have already received more than 4.2 million visitors. The pandemic period naturally became a significant obstacle to migration, but after the lifting of restrictions on movement, there was a surge in the influx of migrants. In 2022, there were already almost 7 million of them.

What is the threat of the influx of migrants

• Compensation for low birth rates due to the arrival of migrants in Europe is primarily explained by economic expediency. According to the head of the European Central Bank (ECB), Christine Lagarde, without foreign workers, the European economy would look much weaker than it is now. She stated that migrants increased the employment rate by 4.1%, and this provided a similar increase in GDP from 2021 to 2025. Lagarde noted that without the incoming workers, Europe would have lower output, and there would be tension in the labor market.

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• However, migration remains an important political factor, and the head of the ECB herself recognizes this. Voters do not want their population to be replaced by foreigners, and therefore they vote for right-wing parties that promise to stop the flow of migrants. The right turn is an established trend for Europe and has already found its embodiment in countries such as Hungary, Slovakia, Poland, and Italy, where right-wing politicians are in power. They have also increased their influence in Germany, the Netherlands, Finland, Croatia, Austria, and Portugal.

Right-wing politicians see migration to Europe as the root of many social problems. In their opinion, migrants enjoy the benefits of the European way of life without paying a fair price for it. Migrants are accused of rising housing costs, rampant crime, rising unemployment, and increasing pressure on health and education systems. In addition, non-assimilated migrants are accused of changing the cultural and religious landscape of Europe, creating diasporas and associations that seek either political influence or criminal influence.

• Europe has to spend money on the adaptation of migrants, and in some cases, on their deportation if their presence is already becoming undesirable. Migrants need to learn the language of the new country and obtain the necessary qualifications, which also requires resources from the state, which are paid for by taxes of the indigenous people. This increases political and social tension, which may have far-reaching consequences for Europe.