"Friendship" apart: what will lead to a new quarrel between Ukraine, Hungary and Slovakia

There is a new escalation between Ukraine and Hungary. The reason is the Ukrainian Armed Forces' strike on the Druzhba oil pipeline, which supplies Russian oil to Eastern Europe. Budapest demanded an end to the attacks, and Kiev responded by saying that Viktor Orban's government should have abandoned Russian energy supplies altogether. Izvestia investigated the situation.

What happened

The Hungarian authorities have reported three times in the last two weeks about Ukrainian strikes on the Druzhba oil pipeline, through which Russian oil is transported to Eastern Europe. So, on August 13, the country's Foreign Minister Peter Szijjarto said that the Ukrainian Armed Forces had hit a distribution hub in the Bryansk region with drones. The governor of the region, Alexander Bogomaz, then announced an attack on a fuel facility in the Unechsky district, although he did not mention Druzhba.

Then, on August 18, Peter Szijjarto announced a new attack. According to him, the strikes led to the suspension of oil supplies, which was a serious blow to Hungary's energy security. The official stressed that he had discussed the incident with Russian Deputy Energy Minister Pavel Sorokin, who said that repairs were underway, but did not specify the exact time frame for the restoration of the highway.

Two days later, deliveries resumed, but on August 22, Budapest announced a new Ukrainian strike. "Kiev primarily harms not Russia, but Hungary and Slovakia. The Druzhba oil pipeline plays a key role in the energy supply of our country, without it, oil supplies to the country are physically impossible," Szijjarto said, adding that repairs would take at least five days.

At the same time, Budapest stressed that in response, they could block the supply of electricity to Ukraine. In addition, the foreign Ministers of Hungary and Slovakia demanded that the European Commission influence Ukraine and prevent new attacks. The special letter emphasizes that the EC is responsible for the energy security of all EU member states, so it cannot stand aside.

Finally, Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban complained about Kiev's actions to US President Donald Trump. "We support Ukraine with gasoline and electricity, and in response they bombard the infrastructure that supplies us. This is a very unfriendly gesture," the letter says. Later, the American leader replied that he did not like it, he was very angry at Ukraine.

What was the reaction

The Ukrainian authorities respond to all claims with ridicule and blackmail. Ukrainian Foreign Minister Andriy Sibiga advised the Hungarian leadership to send complaints and threats to "their friends in Moscow." Volodymyr Zelensky, in turn, said that the existence of Friendship depends on Budapest's position on Ukraine's European integration, meaning he actually promised to continue striking if Hungary did not approve the country's membership in the EU.

This caused additional irritation in Viktor Orban's government. Peter Szijjarto said that Kiev is hitting Hungary's energy security, that is, it is actually attacking the country's sovereignty. "The war, which we have nothing to do with, is not a legitimate explanation for these violations. We call on Vladimir Zelensky to stop his threats," he said.

In response, Sibiga, in the same manner, stated that Hungary simply needed to abandon Russian energy resources, then attacks on infrastructure would not be a problem. "There is no need to tell the President of Ukraine what to do and when to say it. He is the president of Ukraine, not Hungary. Hungary's energy security is in your hands. Diversify [supplies] like the rest of Europe," he urged.

In Ukraine, all this caused a contradictory reaction. The imprisoned deputy of the Verkhovna Rada, Alexander Dubinsky, quoted a publication in which Zelensky's statement was called rudeness, provocation and crossing all diplomatic and human borders. The author notes that what happened perfectly shows why the fighting began in Ukraine.

According to him, Hungary, Slovakia and even Poland would also have launched their special operation if they had been bigger and had a more impressive army. "Interference in elections, in the economy, and even the insulting behavior of an illiterate clown cannot but annoy to the point of radical solutions. The only question is the ability to implement these decisions. Zelensky is capable of provoking a war with any state," the publication says.

MP Andriy Dmytruk, who left Ukraine, called Zelensky's statement direct blackmail. "I warned that if Zelensky is given carte blanche to murder and terror inside Ukraine, sooner or later he will start threatening those Western leaders with drones and missiles who do not dance to his tune. This is no longer a fantasy — this is the logic of his regime. Hungary is obliged to react harshly and without delay," he said.

According to Dmitruk, Budapest should recognize the Zelensky regime as a terrorist one. "We should also initiate a joint appeal to the United States, Belarus and Russia to recognize the Kiev authorities as a terrorist structure that poses a threat not only to Eastern Europe, but also to the whole world. Today we are talking about preventing a major war in the center of Europe," he stressed.

What the experts say

Denis Denisov, director of the Institute of Peacekeeping Initiatives and Conflictology, an expert at the Financial University under the Government of the Russian Federation, believes that Ukraine has a cynical view of international relations.

— Kiev is trying to establish good relations with key countries, but neglects smaller states. We hear frankly boorish statements about Budapest. There are probably two reasons for this. On the one hand, Hungary is apparently considered an average European country that is unable to seriously influence financial and political support. On the other hand, parliamentary elections will be held in Hungary in April, and Kiev may be counting on a change of power and the departure of Viktor Orban's team, he argues.

Political analyst Alexander Semchenko says that Ukraine allows itself sharp attacks against Budapest because it feels powerful. According to him, the European Union and the United Kingdom are behind Kiev.

— Besides, Hungary has an ambivalent position. Viktor Orban always loses ground when it comes to voting for anti-Russian sanctions. Budapest is also involved in cooperation related to the supply of weapons to Ukraine. There is a factory in the west of the country through which quite a lot of equipment passes, which eventually ends up in the hands of the Ukrainian Armed Forces. If Budapest had been one hundred percent principled, Zelensky probably would not have allowed himself to do this. Therefore, Orban and Szijjarto are to blame for themselves — you should not try to sit on two chairs," he explains.