Ruble offset: Russians sharply reduced their purchases of foreign currency
Since the beginning of the year, Russians have bought 1.7 times less currency than a year earlier, according to the Central Bank (Izvestia has it). Demand for it remained low even amid the holiday season and potential exchange rate hikes amid news of a meeting between the leaders of the Russian Federation and the United States. "Toxic currencies" are still risky. In addition, due to high rates, the ruble is more attractive to investors, and the national currencies of friendly countries simplify calculations, experts explained. How the exchange rate will change before the end of the year is in the Izvestia article.
Why don't Russians buy foreign currency
Total purchases of foreign currency by individuals since the beginning of the year amounted to 584 billion rubles, which is 40% less than the results of the same period in 2024, according to the Central Bank. The demand for foreign currency from Russians is falling against the background of the stabilization of the exchange rate and reflects the trend towards abandoning the "toxic" currency.
In July of this year, the ruble weakened slightly after a seven-month strengthening trend, falling by 4.3% against the US dollar (to 81.8 rubles) and by 4% against the yuan (to 11.3 rubles), according to the Central Bank's "Financial Risk Review". Nevertheless, despite the geopolitical shocks, its exchange rate has already stabilized near the level of 80 per dollar.
It was precisely because of this sharp jump that net purchases of foreign currency jumped in July and were the highest for the entire year 2025, said Daria Tarasenko, senior analyst at Gazprombank's Center for Economic Forecasting.
The main reasons for the decrease in currency purchases by individuals:
The sanctions against the Moscow Stock Exchange, which made it impossible to trade dollars and euros, recalled Mikhail Vasiliev, chief analyst at Sovcombank. Restrictions were introduced in June last year. As a result, dollar trading moved to Forex and interbank markets, and the Central Bank began publishing the official ruble exchange rate to national currencies on a daily basis.
The strengthening of the ruble by more than 25% against the background of the regulator's tight monetary policy, says Nikolay Dudchenko, an analyst at Finam Financial Group. The high key rate of 21% made savings in the national currency much more attractive — this effect persisted even after its reduction to 18% at the last meeting.
The fall in foreign exchange rates, which reduced the speculative activity of traders who are used to playing against the ruble, added Mikhail Zeltser, an expert at BCS World of Investments.
The continuation of the trend towards devaluing the financial system was concluded in BCS World of Investments.
People have become less likely to buy foreign currency because they trust their own more and prefer to keep money in ruble—denominated instruments, such as bonds or deposits, said Vladimir Chernov, analyst at Freedom Finance Global. This is also due to the fact that the population is used to sanctions: currency can only be exported in a limited amount (up to $10,000), and deposits in dollars and euros no longer generate income. This trend may indicate a stabilization of the situation in the domestic market, but external risks still make us cautious.
How is the reversal from the dollar to the ruble going?
Under the pressure of sanctions, Russia is making a U-turn: abandoning the "toxic" dollars and euros, transferring payments to rubles and friendly currencies, primarily to the yuan, Mikhail Vasiliev from Sovcombank emphasized. The currency of unfriendly countries is rapidly losing importance for both the state and its citizens. The ruble is coming to the fore, its role in payments and settlements is strengthening, and the foreign exchange market itself is losing its former influence.
Reducing the role of the dollar and the euro in calculations was a deliberate strategy: the goal was, first of all, to strengthen the ruble and reduce dependence on the currencies of unfriendly countries, Natalia Pyrieva, a leading analyst at Digital Broker, recalled. Today, when the ruble occupies a key share in cross-border transactions and its exchange rate has stabilized, we can say that the task has been completed. At the same time, the decline in the population's interest in foreign money is noticeable, but it no longer affects the general market.
In addition, the currencies of unfriendly countries are still risky, so if there is interest in foreign money, it is more profitable to look at the yuan, said Vladimir Chernov. Banks offer good rates on deposits in Chinese currency, and with a possible weakening of the ruble, this can give a good profit in the medium and long term.
When companies and people buy less foreign currency, turnover in this market decreases. This means that it becomes less liquid (there is less money and transactions, so it is more difficult to quickly buy or sell a currency without strong exchange rate fluctuations). In such a situation, with sudden changes in external conditions (for example, falling oil prices or new sanctions), the exchange rate may fluctuate more.
If the demand for foreign currency decreases, but the supply (that is, the sale of foreign money by banks and companies) remains high, there may be an excess of currency in the interbank market. As a result, the ruble may strengthen.
A decrease in the volume of transactions with foreign money also means that it is more difficult for businesses to conduct their operations (for example, to buy dollars for import supplies).
This situation can be corrected by relaxing the currency restrictions. For example, if more foreign money is allowed to be exported abroad, Vladimir Chernov suggested. Another option is to encourage imports so that companies have a need to buy foreign currency and maintain a balance of supply and demand. You can also actively use the "currencies" of friendly countries (for example, the yuan), increasing their turnover in Russia. Another way is to create new financial instruments in rubles so that investors do not go into the currency.
Theoretically, the Central Bank can intervene through currency interventions (buying or selling currencies to stabilize the exchange rate), concluded Vladimir Chernov. This would help reduce or prevent fluctuations, but in recent years the regulator has almost abandoned this method.
What will happen to the ruble exchange rate next
The price of foreign currency is not growing yet, BCS World of Investments noted. But lowering the Central Bank's interest rate and changing the rules for the repatriation of foreign exchange earnings will soon reduce the volume of foreign money on the market, which will technically push the exchange rate up.
The Cabinet of Ministers canceled the mandatory return to the country and the sale of foreign exchange earnings for exporters on August 14. The decree was signed by Prime Minister Mikhail Mishustin.
The authorities explained this decision by the stability of the ruble and the sufficient amount of currency in the economy. According to TradingView, the ruble-dollar exchange rate has been in the range of 79-80 for three months now. Previously, stricter rules applied: large exporters had to transfer at least 40% of their foreign exchange earnings to Russian banks and sell 90% of this amount in the country.
A small volume of purchases of foreign currency is now supporting the ruble, Finam says. But with the beginning of monetary policy easing, interest in foreign money is growing again. By the end of the year, the ruble may weaken, and the dollar will cost about 93-95 rubles, experts expect.
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