Demonstration offensive: Israel's operation in Gaza may be delayed until 2026

Israel is preparing for a new phase of the military operation in Gaza, which may last until 2026 and affect hundreds of thousands of reservists. On August 20, the country's Defense Ministry approved Operation Gideon's Chariots–2. Despite Hamas's agreement to release some of the hostages in exchange for a cease-fire, the Jewish state retains the military scenario as its main instrument of pressure. The IDF's new offensive plan demonstrates its readiness to destroy the Palestinian movement if it refuses to make concessions. The situation could lead to a protracted guerrilla war, which would endanger not only the local population, but also the remaining Israeli hostages.

The assault on Gaza

Israel has approved a new phase of its military campaign in the Gaza Strip. Defense Minister Yisrael Katz approved the plan for Operation Gideon's Chariots-2, designed for several waves of reservist mobilization and involving the storming of Gaza City. According to the Galey IDF army Radio, the campaign may last until 2026, and the total number of soldiers involved will reach 130 thousand.

About 40-50 thousand people will have to go to service on September 2. The second wave is expected in November–December, and the third in February–March 2026. The army emphasizes that these forces will go in addition to the tens of thousands of reservists who are already in service.

Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has called Gaza City "the last major stronghold of Hamas," but the military itself warns that expanding the offensive could endanger the lives of hostages and drag the army into a grueling guerrilla war.

Currently, Israel controls about 75% of the territory of the exclave. The first operation called "Gideon's Chariots" began back in May and involved the complete seizure of the sector's territory. Her goals included the elimination of Hamas in Gaza and the return of hostages. However, by the summer it became obvious that neither military nor political objectives had been achieved.

Nevertheless, the authorities decided to return to the offensive scenario, presenting it as a "necessary condition" for achieving strategic goals. At the same time, the army began preparations to relocate Gazan civilians to southern areas and refugee camps. Negotiations are underway with international organizations on the deployment of field hospitals and the reopening of the European Hospital in Rafah.

According to orientalist Leonid Tsukanov, Prime Minister Netanyahu's main task, which he publicly broadcasts to the public, is to fully end the conflict in Gaza on Israeli terms. In his opinion, this country does not seek to agree to the Hamas proposal to release half of the hostages in exchange for a cease-fire in the exclave, since this would mean stopping the military campaign and losing the initiative to Israeli forces.

Israel is escalating

Thus, the Jewish state found itself in a situation of choice: to continue the military pressure, which threatens to involve tens of thousands of soldiers in a guerrilla war, or to agree to a partial agreement capable of freeing the hostages.

"Even if the second phase of Gideon's Chariots fails to completely defeat Hamas, the IDF will gain operational control over most of Gaza and complete the construction of security corridors inside it. At the same time, rapid progress is unlikely to be expected in the near future — at least until the recruitment campaign is completed, Leonid Tsukanov tells Izvestia.

The Israeli authorities believe that it is the threat of an assault and the complete depletion of Hamas' resources that can force the movement to agree to concessions that cannot be obtained at the negotiating table. The country's leadership is convinced that without the final defeat of the movement and the establishment of new structures at the head of the exclave, no temporary deal guarantees long-term security.

Roman Yanushevsky, editor-in—chief of the website of the 9th Israeli TV channel, noted in a conversation with Izvestia that the publication of the plan to storm the city of Gaza is both a signal and an instrument of pressure.

— The fact is that these negotiations have been going on for a very long time. Each time, Hamas was looking for some loopholes and tricks, trying to keep the hostages. This is a very serious and real threat to launch an assault on Gaza City, the main stronghold of Hamas, except for the camps in the center of the strip. Perhaps she will encourage the group to conclude an agreement that will lead to the end of the war. Both sides are already tired: it takes up too many resources, and the pressure method may work," he said.

The expert stressed that the hostages remain the main lever of pressure from Hamas, which the organization will not give up without firm guarantees of ending the war and maintaining its influence in the sector. At the same time, the publication of Israel's offensive plan demonstrates its readiness to destroy Hamas if it refuses to make concessions, Roman Yanushevsky added.

According to him, even the defeat of key battalions does not mean the cessation of hostilities, as Hamas will continue its guerrilla war of attrition, using tunnels and destroyed buildings to attack the Israeli army. This means that new fighting could break out in Gaza if the negotiation process gets stuck or Hamas refuses to make concessions, he said.

Negotiations on hostages and prisoners

A diplomatic settlement option is being considered in parallel. According to Israeli media reports, the country's leadership is studying a proposal for a phased hostage exchange and ceasefire deal agreed upon by Hamas with the mediation of Egypt and Qatar.

— After Hamas agreed to the proposal, Israel has no good reason to continue the military operation: now it must either accept the deal or reject the efforts of intermediaries, including the United States. The problem lies not in Hamas, but in the policy of the Israeli leadership," Tarek al—Bardasi, an Egyptian international relations expert, told Izvestia.

He drew attention to Netanyahu's statements about the concept of a "Greater Israel," stressing that Hamas served only as a pretext. Al-Bardasi believes that the Palestinian resistance will continue as long as the injustice and oppression of the Palestinian people persist.

Izvestia previously reported, citing a source in Hamas, that the movement was ready to release ten Israeli prisoners and hand over the bodies of 18 more victims. According to the Times of Israel, Israel will have to release hundreds of Palestinian prisoners, including those serving long sentences or life sentences. Additionally, the release of more than a thousand Gazans detained after October 2023 without charges is being discussed.

Today, according to the Israeli side, 50 people remain in captivity of Hamas. Of these, 20 are alive, and the fate of two more is a matter of serious concern. In addition, Hamas holds the bodies of at least 28 people, including the remains of a soldier who died in Gaza in 2014.

The Hostage Families Forum sharply criticized the decision to launch a new military operation. The organization's statement reads: "Approving plans to take over Gaza when a deal for the release of our loved ones is on the table is a blow to the families' hearts."

The official position of the Cabinet remains unchanged. The Prime Minister's office stated that the end of the war is possible only if a number of conditions are met: the disarmament of Hamas, the return of all living and dead hostages, the dismantling of the movement's administrative structures, the establishment of Israeli control over security in the sector and the formation of an alternative civilian government, not affiliated with either Hamas or the Palestinian National Authority. Netanyahu himself noted earlier this week that "Hamas is under tremendous pressure." However, he has not yet given an official response to the proposal from Egypt and Qatar.