Compression market: volume of consumer loans decreased by 46.5%
In the middle of summer 2025, citizens issued about 1.56 million consumer loans, which is almost half the result of last July, when their number reached 2.92 million, the press service of the National Bureau of Credit Histories (NBKI) reported, citing data from lenders who transmit information to the bureau. Thus, the reduction was 46.5% compared to the same month in 2024. Izvestia investigated what this is related to and what the consumer lending market will be like in the coming months.
Key factors
In July 2025, Russians issued 1.56 million consumer loans, which turned out to be 46.5% less than a year earlier, when 2.92 million such loans were issued, the NBKI press service said. At the same time, the situation was the opposite compared to June of this year: the number of new loans increased by 13.1%. Among the regions where the most consumer loans were issued, the capital became the leader — about 105 thousand contracts. Next are the Moscow Region with an indicator of 93.3 thousand and the Krasnodar Territory, where approximately 64.7 thousand loans were issued.
The main reason for the recent changes in the consumer loan market is the tightening of monetary policy aimed at curbing activity in the retail lending segment, said Alexey Volkov, NBKI Marketing Director, in an interview with Izvestia.
— First of all, we are talking about a high key rate, as well as the tightening of macroprudential limits (MPL) in relation to the debt burden indicator (PD). Thus, it has become almost impossible for citizens with high personal income (more than 50%) to obtain loans," he said. — Such borrowers, in fact, are washed out of the loan process. In general, the following trends have prevailed in the retail lending market over the past year: a drop in demand for loans from citizens (as high interest rates force many borrowers to refuse to attract them) and a decrease in the so-called risk appetite on the part of lenders themselves.
As a result, the volume of consumer loans decreased significantly compared to last year, the expert emphasized. At the same time, the further development of the situation will be directly related to changes in the Central Bank's key rate and subsequent steps by the regulator in the field of microprudential regulation.
A gradual "unfreezing" of lending is underway, Ekaterina Shurikhina, Director of Banking Ratings at Expert RA, told Izvestia. However, the recovery of disbursements in the consumer segment to the level of 2024 can be expected only in 2026 and subject to the continued downward trend in the key rate.
It is not entirely correct to talk about a sharp reduction in consumer loans in July, because the trend began at the beginning of the third quarter of last year, Evgenia Lazareva, project manager of the Popular Front for Borrowers' Rights, told Izvestia.
"This dynamic is due to the establishment of limits on lending to over—indebted customers and the tight monetary policy of the Bank of Russia, which by the end of October 2024 brought the key rate level to 21%, which caused a corresponding increase in loan rates," the expert said.
Against the background of high interest rates, she said, the general level of creditworthiness of the population continued to grow. Under these conditions, the market has become more cautious and tightened its scoring models.
— Loan applications were consistently approved by solvent clients with a good credit history demonstrating a high level of payment discipline. In addition, customers stopped refinancing loans previously issued at lower rates, as it became unprofitable. The structure of demand for borrowed funds has also changed. Over the past year, more and more citizens have opted for grace-period credit cards and secured loans against property, which is more profitable than non-targeted unsecured cash loans.
However, according to the expert, when comparing the July figures not with last year, but with previous months, the opposite picture can be seen — the number of new loans is increasing. A similar trend has been forming in Russia since the beginning of the second quarter of 2025. As soon as the Bank of Russia began to gradually lower the key rate, market interest rates went down, which stimulated an increase in the number of consumer loans issued.
Restoring activity
The decrease in the volume of consumer loans issued is primarily due to the current monetary policy, Sergey Katyrin, President of the Chamber of Commerce and Industry of the Russian Federation, confirmed in an interview with Izvestia. The high key rate limits borrowers' options.
— However, against the background of the expected reduction in the Central Bank's rate, it is possible to restore activity in the consumer lending market by the end of 2025. Especially considering that domestic consumer demand remains one of the key drivers of economic growth," he said. — It is important that financial mechanisms, both credit and investment, are available not only to the public, but also to small and medium—sized businesses. This will ensure a more balanced recovery in demand and maintain positive dynamics in the economy.
According to Andrey Stolyarov, Associate Professor and Deputy Head of the Basic Department of Financial Market Infrastructure at the HSE Faculty of Economics, such a noticeable drop in consumer lending compared to last year is due to several factors at once. Among them are rising interest rates, the transition of some citizens to a savings strategy, the tightening of the Central Bank's requirements for banks, as well as a slowdown in wage increases, the expert told Izvestia.
— It was with the reduction in the volume of consumer loans that the slowdown in banks' lending activity began. It is characteristic that this year statistics show an increase in activity in the consumer credit market, which can be attributed to a reduction in the key interest rate. Further dynamics will depend on the rate of reduction of the key rate and the growth of consumer activity. If the key rate continues to decline at a high rate and falls below 14% by the end of the year, a recovery is possible. Otherwise, the growth will be insignificant," he stressed.
This dynamic is understandable, Vladimir Eremkin, senior researcher at the IPEI Structural Research Laboratory at the Presidential Academy, noted in an interview with Izvestia. He recalled that last year, until the end of July, the key rate was kept at 16%, so the demand for loans looked different. According to him, if we compare any month of 2025 with the same period in 2024, there will be a decrease in issuance volumes everywhere, as current interest rates are noticeably higher.
— More interesting here is the sequential dynamics compared to the previous month, which also reflects a reduction in consumer lending. Most likely, this is due to the wait-and-see strategy that the population has chosen. If there is no urgent need for a purchase, it is postponed in anticipation of further rate cuts," the expert explained. — The main scenario provides for a smooth stabilization of lending volumes to individuals with a gradual transition to growth as the key interest rate decreases. The Bank of Russia will respond to a decrease in creditworthiness and risks, therefore, the rigidity of the PREP will weaken.
The Ministry of Finance forwarded Izvestia's request to the Central Bank, but the Bank of Russia did not provide a response at the time of publication.
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