Bonds like gold: which investment instruments have become the best
In July 2025, the Russian financial market demonstrated multidirectional dynamics. The main events of the month were the weakening of the ruble, which interrupted its seven-month strengthening trend, and the continued growth in the debt market. These processes are observed as a result of a reduction in the key rate by the Bank of Russia and a steady slowdown in inflation, according to the Central Bank's risk review of financial markets. The figures for a longer period show that OFZ, corporate bonds, gold and ruble mutual funds have become the most profitable investment instruments in recent months. Bitcoin is out of the competition for reasons not directly related to Russia. About what is happening on the Russian financial market and which of its tools will become profitable in the coming months, see the Izvestia article.
Ruble: down for the first time
The key trend in July, according to the Central Bank, was the weakening of the national currency. The ruble fell by 4.3% against the US dollar (to 81.83 rubles) and by 3.9% against the yuan (to 11.37 rubles). This happened against the background of increased demand for the currency from companies at the end of the month and the strengthening of the dollar index around the world. However, in early August, the ruble partially recovered its losses.
By the way, the sale of foreign currency by exporters remains extremely high. The ratio of net sales to the foreign exchange export earnings of the largest exporters in May 2025 was 86%. Recall that last week the Central Bank canceled the mandatory sale of foreign currency earnings. However, even before that, the sales rate was 36%. As you can see, the Central Bank is not worried about the sufficient liquidity of the currency in the market and has every reason to do so.
The government bond market continued to grow modestly due to the continued reduction in the key interest rate. Yields on federal loan bonds (OFZ) decreased by an average of 89 basis points, especially strongly for securities with a short maturity. The Ministry of Finance successfully placed OFZS for 789.3 billion rubles in a month, having fulfilled more than half of the quarterly plan — the demand is serious. As for corporate bonds of Russian companies, the market volume increased by 929 billion, to 31.46 trillion rubles. The indicative yield decreased significantly more than that of OFZ (-207 basis points, to 16.03%), which narrowed the risk spreads.
As for the stock market, the Moscow Exchange Index adjusted by 4% (to 2,732.1 points) amid geopolitical uncertainty and new sanctions expectations. The securities of the oil and gas (-6.7%), financial (-6.2%) and transport (-6.1%) sectors were in the red. Only the IT sector showed growth (6%). Geopolitical-related volatility played a role here, as well as a slowdown in economic growth and weak global oil prices, especially after their rise in previous months.
Who was the main buyer in the market
Individuals continued to demonstrate conservative sentiments. The bulk of their investments were in ruble deposits and accounts (+752 billion rubles per month). At the same time, private investors actively increased investments in bonds: net purchases of corporate bonds amounted to a record 90.9 billion rubles, and OFZ - 65.3 billion rubles. Interest in the shares remained modest (+15.2 billion).
The demand for foreign currency from legal entities jumped by 32%, to 2.1 trillion rubles. The population also bought 119.5 billion worth of foreign currency (an increase of 53%). But the rise in demand for digital financial assets (CFAs) was much more serious. The CFA market showed explosive growth in the second quarter of 2025. The volume of issues in circulation has increased by 86% since the beginning of the year, reaching 514 billion rubles. Banks and legal entities remain the main issuers and buyers.
What has produced the best returns in recent times
By the end of July, replacement bonds had the strongest performance (+6.4%). They showed the best result due to two factors: lower rates (rising prices) and a weaker ruble (currency revaluation). The leaders also included shares of the IT sector (+6.1%), which continued to recover from a prolonged correction that began at the beginning of the year and showed the best dynamics on the stock market. Corporate bonds provided their holders with yields of up to 5.2%. It varied depending on the risk: securities of category "A" brought 5.2%, "BBB" — 4.9%, and the most reliable "AAA— - 3.0%.
If we talk about a longer period (over the past 12 months), then the trends are more clearly visible. Investors who bet on the debt market have collected all the cream. Federal bonds turned out to be the most profitable instrument — 27.4%. This was the result of a multi-month reduction in the key rate of the Bank of Russia. Corporate bonds with high ratings of "AAA", "AA" and "A" yielded from 24 to 26.5% profit. Finally, gold brought investors 24.6%. It is not surprising, given that it continues to break records in the global market and is increasingly becoming an "asset of last resort."
At the same time, bitcoin showed the highest profitability in all categories, which soared by 66% in 365 days. The Trump administration's rise to power in the United States, which loves cryptocurrencies for many reasons, played a key role here. A number of laws that have been passed in the States in the last month institutionalize the "crypt". Plus, geopolitical tensions are also generating, as in the case of gold, more and more skepticism about fiat currencies. However, unlike gold, bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies are still extremely volatile.
The growth period is over
Will these trends change in the rest of this year? As Ivan Dubinin, Deputy head of the Investment Advisory Department at Finam, explained, profitability is starting to decline in literally all directions.
— All yields of reliable issuers with maturity beyond December 2025 decreased to the level of 14-15% per annum (compared to 22-23% per annum and higher at the beginning of the year). The further dynamics of these instruments (including bonds maturing in 1-2 years) will depend on the level of inflation and the geopolitical situation, the expert believes.
According to him, it seems logical to include in the portfolio stocks that benefit in the future from the lifting of sanctions and the opening of markets, at least 25-30% of the portfolio.
— As a protective tool, we can consider buying foreign currency bonds linked to the Central Bank's exchange rate. Given the low dollar exchange rate and the yield at 7%, it seems to us that they can quite compete in numbers with ruble bonds at a yield of the last 14% per annum — besides, we take into account the protective effect of a sharp jump in the exchange rate.
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