To put things in order: will the Serbian authorities be able to cope with the protests
The situation in Serbia continues to escalate, with opponents of the government attacking the offices of the ruling party and administrative buildings. The situation may worsen further in September, as a conflict within the ruling circles of the republic is possible, Serbian MP Dragan Stanojevic told Izvestia. According to experts, Belgrade has two extreme scenarios: early elections or a harsh crackdown on rallies. President Aleksandar Vucic warned that the authorities would act decisively and restore order in the country.
An attempt at a color revolution in Serbia
In September, the situation in Serbia may further worsen, with severe roadblocks and buildings continuing, as well as attacks on the offices of the ruling party, Dragan Stanojevic, head of the Serbian Parliament's committee on Diaspora and Serbs in the region, told Izvestia. He noted that there is a "threat of betrayal within the Serbian state system" due to the presence of dissatisfied people in it.
— There is also a lot of discontent among the people. There are also projects that are being implemented with the help of external players, Western ones, of course. Unfortunately, the decisions that the current government is making do not reassure people. Moreover, many of them are erroneous," the parliamentarian told Izvestia.
The politician does not expect early elections to be held in the near future, as this will lead to a power vacuum. An early election campaign this year is possible only in the event of an emergency and a sharp increase in protests, he is sure. There are conditionally pro-Western and pro-Russian wings in the Serbian government. For example, Interior Minister Ivica Dacic and Minister without portfolio Nenad Popovich are committed to developing relations with the Russian Federation. Until recently, Alexander Vulin, who sympathizes with Russia, held the post of deputy prime minister. Meanwhile, Foreign Minister Marko Juric and Energy Minister Djedovic-Handanovic are described as more pro-Western politicians.
Mass riots and attacks on buildings in Belgrade are an attempt to organize a color revolution paid for from outside, President Aleksandar Vucic said. He noted that the financing of such riots has not been thought out, and the instigators do not have a plan and program that they will offer to the people of Serbia.
On the evening of August 18, mass riots swept through the republic again. Protesters threw stones and pyrotechnics at one of the Belgrade branches of the ruling Serbian Progressive Party. Earlier in the day, an unknown man was arrested in Belgrade for attempting to set fire to the Museum of Yugoslavia.
And on August 17, in the city of Valjevo, opponents of the authorities set fire to the buildings of the city administration, the court and the prosecutor's office, as well as the office of the ruling Serbian Progressive Party. Attacks on offices of supporters of President Vucic have become a new form of protest activity — similar cases have been recorded in other cities. In general, this wave of protests in the country began after the tragedy in Novi Sad in November 2024. Then a 50-meter canopy made of concrete, metal and glass collapsed, killing 15 people, including three children. It was after this incident that Serbia plunged, in fact, into a political crisis.
In response, the authorities of the republic promise to take decisive measures to restore order in the next three to four days. At the same time, the Serbian government does not intend to introduce a state of emergency. Instead, all available forces will be mobilized.
— They are (opponents of the government. Every night they will look for a place to set something on fire until someone is killed. But the state will act decisively. We do not need any external instructions, we will restore order in our country and free citizens from terror and evil," the Serbian leader stressed.
Serbian President Aleksandar Vucic
The probability of a color revolution is quite high, but not one hundred percent, RIAC program manager Milan Lazovich told Izvestia. In his opinion, there is certainly a foreign influence, but at this stage it is still limited. The West does not see an adequate replacement for the current president Aleksandar Vucic.
— In order for the color revolution to take place, it is first necessary to prepare public opinion leaders who could embark on a political path within the country. But don't be fooled: this process is clearly underway. In Serbia, we are dealing not with a classic, but with a modified attempt at a color revolution," the expert said.
Serbian Prime Minister Juro Matsut, in an interview with Izvestia, earlier stressed that Western intelligence agencies are working to destabilize the situation in the country. President Vucic said that "billions of euros have been invested in the protests."
The main driving force behind this protest was the students. At the same time, the opposition currently has no bright leaders, which does not give it the opportunity to challenge the authorities in the elections. It cannot be said that the protests are completely pro-European, but Western countries are actively trying to use them to put pressure on President Vucic. Using instability, the EU and the UK are trying to force Belgrade to recognize Kosovo and not prevent a change of power in Republika Srpska (entity of Bosnia and Herzegovina).
Britain and Germany also insist on the need to remove figures and politicians who support Belgrade's ties with Moscow from the most important posts, Izvestia previously wrote. In addition, London and Berlin are demanding that Serbia stop direct flights to Russia and introduce a visa regime for Russians. Belgrade is now refusing to impose sanctions on our country, despite intense pressure.
What options does the ruling party have?
Experts see two scenarios as a last resort — if the situation does not calm down: early parliamentary elections or the violent suppression of protests. Early elections of deputies are one of the methods tested by Vucic. Six parliamentary election campaigns have been held in Serbia since 2012. This is usually a good way to resolve political differences, as Serbia often faces protests.
In addition, the sudden announcement of a vote — and in such cases there may not be much time left — gives the ruling party an advantage. For example, in the last parliamentary elections in December 2023, which were also held ahead of schedule, the Serbian Progressive Party won 129 seats out of 250.
On the other hand, the demonstrators quite successfully managed to unleash the level of discontent with Alexander Vucic and his team personally. In these conditions, it is more difficult to achieve high ratings, noted Milan Lazovich.
— The government has not yet agreed to new early elections. She has good chances in general, but now they will be clearly worse than, for example, in the last early parliamentary elections in December 2023. And even if the result of the current team is high again, the protesters clearly do not recognize it and will call it fake," the political scientist noted.
Protesters blocked streets near the administration of Serbian President Aleksandar Vucic
In the short term, Alexander Vucic is not in danger of losing power. In order for him to agree to early elections, whether parliamentary or presidential, the United States and the EU must unequivocally urge him to do so. They are not doing this yet, says Ekaterina Entina, director of the HSE Center for Mediterranean Studies.
"In the medium term (say, a year and a half), the ruling party is unlikely to continue to have an overwhelming majority, but it will remain a major parliamentary force, gathering 15-20% of the electorate, and Vucic may well lead it again," the political scientist told Izvestia.
The Serbian authorities have few opportunities to suppress the protests by force on their own, Entina believes. However, Belgrade has no one to turn to for help: Serbia adheres to neutrality and is not a member of military alliances such as NATO or the CSTO.
Anti-European and anti-NATO graffiti during the general elections on Belgrade street
However, former Serbian MP Zoltan Dani believes that the authorities are able to prevent further escalation, since representatives of the pro-Western opposition are mostly "under control."
— The European media, especially the German media (which means that the wind is blowing from there), accuse the political leadership of excessive use of force, but this is not true. Media manipulation happens all the time. Misinformation is being spread, fabricated in the EU. But so far the situation is under control," he told Izvestia.
Protests are part of Serbia's political culture. It was precisely because of the mass riots dubbed the "Bulldozer Revolution" that President Slobodan Milosevic was forced to resign in 2000. Equally serious protests took place in Serbia after a mass shooting at a school in Belgrade, when ten people were killed. In the summer of 2024, Serbian environmental activists and the opposition opposed the mining of lithium in the Jadar River Valley by Rio Tinto. No election campaign in the country is complete without protests.
Переведено сервисом «Яндекс Переводчик»
