Connection of payments: how the digital ruble will help the economy
According to the National Rating Agency (NRA), the launch of the digital ruble, scheduled for September 2026, could bring annual benefits of up to 260 billion rubles to the Russian economy by 2031, and about 50 billion rubles to banking organizations (a corresponding review is available to Izvestia). Izvestia investigated what other benefits the new form of the ruble can bring to the economy and how actively it will be used in international trade.
Expected indicators
The Central Bank of the Russian Federation informed Izvestia about the analysis of the development of the digital ruble. The third form of the Russian national currency should become the same everyday instrument as non-cash rubles within 5-7 years. This will create a strong foundation for further financial innovation and strengthen Russia's economic resilience.
According to Sergey Grishunin, managing director of the NRA rating agency, the use of the new currency will be regulated by uniform tariffs. This approach, as he stated in a conversation with Izvestia, will significantly reduce the cost of operations. At the same time, all transactions will be absolutely free for the public, and businesses will have to pay only a nominal fee in the form of a small commission.
— A particularly noticeable effect is expected in the retail sector, where businesses will be able to significantly save on acquiring fees. Reducing fees for payments and transfers will directly increase the profitability of companies, which will be an additional incentive for the development of entrepreneurship, he said.
Also, the digital ruble, according to him, will give the Central Bank the opportunity to manage the amount of money in circulation in real time. Thanks to this, new mechanisms will appear that will ensure more precise regulation of the economy and allow for prompt response to emerging financial challenges.
— By 2025, Russia's GDP may increase due to further digitalization of the economy by 4.1–8.9 trillion rubles, — said Sergey Grishunin. — The volume of gross domestic expenditures on the development of the digital economy in the country in 2023 amounted to 5.5 trillion rubles, which is 6% higher than in the previous year. The digital ruble is intended to become a catalyst for these processes, creating a unified platform for the development of digital financial services and innovations.
Enhanced control
As Ekaterina Novikova, Associate Professor of the Department of Economic Theory at Plekhanov Russian University of Economics, noted in an interview with Izvestia, the introduction of the digital ruble will make it possible to transparently control budget spending within the framework of national programs. For example, if the financing is directed to the construction of a hospital in a particular city, then the entire path of this money can be traced in detail during the inspection.
— Thus, the digital ruble is becoming an effective tool, including in the fight against corruption, and a tool for the targeted use of funds. In the future, the digital ruble can be used in international trade, where it will also be possible to track all trading operations in which the national currency participated. This allows the state to work faster, saving a lot of effort and money," the expert believes.
Valery Piven, head of the ACRA Financial Institution Ratings Group, noted in an interview with Izvestia that the launch of the digital ruble can be considered as an important and logical stage in the development of the national payment system. At the same time, he stressed that it is too early to talk about the exact scale of the expected effect, since the impact will also affect those segments of the economy where cash payments prevail, and their real impact is difficult to measure.
— It can also be expected that banks will shift the growing costs of raising funds to the borrower, which may become a factor in the increase in the cost of the loan. At the same time, for small banks, the costs of implementing it into everyday circulation may exceed the benefits," he noted.
International context
According to Sergey Grishunin, the integration of digital currencies can completely replace the SWIFT system in the near future. Experts predict that by 2028, international settlements may switch to digital technologies. The potential economic effect for Russian businesses from using the digital ruble for cross-border transfers is estimated in the range from 15 to 103 billion rubles.
Traditional international transfers are often associated with high fees and hidden costs, and their processing can take from several days to weeks, the expert added. Central bank digital currencies are fundamentally changing this situation, providing significantly higher speed due to automated processing and the absence of manual verification at each stage.
— In the context of sanctions pressure and a reduction in the number of Russian banks connected to the SWIFT system, the digital ruble is becoming a potential solution to the problem of cross-border payments. The development of alternative systems such as SPFS and CIPS, along with the introduction of the digital ruble and the de-dollarization of foreign trade, is creating a new financial reality. The Bank of Russia has already begun preparing the infrastructure for connecting foreign banks to the use of the digital ruble starting in 2025," he stressed.
One of the key advantages of the digital ruble is its potential to reduce threats in international settlements with friendly countries, especially those with their own digital currencies, Peter Shcherbachenko, associate professor at the Financial University under the Government of the Russian Federation, told Izvestia. Thanks to this tool, it will be possible to conduct transactions with the EAEU, BRICS countries and other partners, which will reduce dollar dependence and reduce the likelihood of restrictions in the SWIFT system.
— High-quality cyber protection and system resilience to technical failures will be crucial for the full launch of the digital ruble. This will guarantee the stability and safety of all new financial transactions," he said.
The use of the digital ruble in foreign trade will largely be determined by two factors, Valery Piven believes. In particular, it is the willingness of foreign counterparties to use it as the main means of settlement and the ability of financial systems of other countries to adapt to operations with digital currencies.
At the same time, smart contracts, that is, digital algorithms that record transactions and monitor the fulfillment of obligations by all parties, will become a revolutionary element of the new currency, Sergey Grishunin is sure. These tools allow you to perform certain actions, including payments, according to a predefined algorithm with specific conditions. For large businesses, smart contracts will simplify the maintenance of complex structured transactions, especially those that require control over the allocation of funds.
— The practical application of these technologies is already reflected in various industries. Transportation companies will be able to arrange autopayments using smart contracts with complex supply logistics, ensuring synchronicity of payments along several segments of the route. In the public sector, smart contracts can be used in government payments and financial services, which will lead to lower costs for the administration of budget payments and increase the efficiency of public administration, he added.
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