Incite and rule: what street protests in Serbia can lead to
The political situation in Serbia will continue to deteriorate - as a result, the authorities may announce early elections at all levels, experts interviewed by Izvestia believe. Earlier, a wave of pogroms and attempted arson attacks on administrative buildings swept across the country, dozens of people were injured. The Serbian Interior Ministry promises to bring the situation under control. Meanwhile, President Aleksandar Vucic announced his refusal to run for re-election and announced early parliamentary elections, but the opposition was not reassured. About how street protests in Serbia turn into bloody clashes and who is trying to destabilize the situation in the republic — in the Izvestia article.
Why are the protests in Serbia becoming radicalized
On the night of August 17, mass riots broke out in several cities of Serbia: protesters attacked police officers, set fire to the premises of government agencies and political parties. In the city of Valjevo, opponents of the authorities set fire to the buildings of the city administration, the court and the prosecutor's office, as well as the office of the ruling Serbian Progressive Party, Interior Minister Ivica Dacic said.
— Fortunately, there was no one inside. Given that this is a residential and office building where people live, a fire could endanger their lives," the minister said.
In Valjevo, according to police estimates, about 4 thousand people participated in the riots, in Belgrade — about 1.3 thousand, who threw molotov cocktails at law enforcement officers. About 500 protesters gathered in Novi Sad. During that night, 18 people were detained. As a result, law enforcement forces were able to restore public order, the Serbian authorities said.
However, the situation has sharply escalated in recent days. The opposition has moved from rallies and roadblocks to attacks on administrative buildings. On August 14, protesters tried to burn down the office of the Serbian Progressive Party along with its supporters in Novi Sad. The Interior Ministry of the republic stated that the protesters take to the streets with weapons and a clear plan to attack the police. 127 police officers have been injured in the past four days, Minister Ivica Dacic said.
— We will restore everything together with the people. With all the bad things that the riots are bringing to our country, there is one plus – all masks have been dropped! People see everything, and the nervousness of the protesters is growing, their hysteria is growing, their aggression is becoming more pronounced because they have nothing more to offer," said Serbian President Aleksandar Vucic.
Recall that a new wave of protests in Serbia began after the tragedy at the railway station in Novi Sad in November 2024. Then a 50-meter canopy made of concrete, metal and glass collapsed. As a result, 15 people died, including three children.
The radicalization of the protests was one of the possible scenarios for the outbreak of unrest. And now events are unfolding precisely according to him - there really is radicalization, and it is sharp. Probably, its main goal is to force the authorities to take harsh measures, which has not been done before, INF program manager Milan Lazovich told Izvestia.
— In this case, they can be accused of authoritarianism and violation of freedoms, and the right picture will immediately appear. That is, the main goal is to provoke and compromise the authorities," the expert noted.
The Russian Foreign Ministry stressed that a new wave of street riots in major cities of Serbia is crossing the line of civilized behavior. As reported on Smolenskaya Square, "Russia cannot remain indifferent to what is happening in fraternal Serbia," which in difficult conditions "finds the strength to maintain independence and defend sovereignty."
Protests have engulfed almost all major settlements in Serbia. The radicalization is probably due to the fact that Alexander Vucic refused to follow his traditional tactics of responding to such activity — to hold early elections, Ekaterina Entina, director of the HSE Center for Mediterranean Studies, told Izvestia.
— The protesters are betting on destabilizing the situation so that the international community can intervene after seeing the acts of suppression of the protests. It may call for early parliamentary elections, or, more likely, new presidential elections. Vucic has so far refused both," the expert said.
In the last parliamentary elections in December 2023, which were also held ahead of schedule, the Serbian Progressive Party won 129 seats out of 250. Aleksandar Vucic was re-elected president of Serbia in 2022, when his support was more than 60% of the vote.
Who is trying to interfere in Serbia's affairs
The Serbian authorities believe that the protests are organized from abroad. In particular, the former deputy head of the Serbian government, Alexander Vulin, said that the rallies were fueled by Belgrade's refusal to join anti-Russian sanctions. President Alexander Vucic accused the West of trying to organize a "color revolution" in the republic — in this, according to him, "billions of euros were invested." Serbian Prime Minister Juro Matsut also stressed in an interview with Izvestia that Western intelligence agencies are working to destabilize the situation in the country.
Britain and Germany are the most active in this, demanding that the republic's leadership remove figures and politicians who support Belgrade's ties with Moscow from the most important posts, Izvestia previously wrote. In addition, London and Berlin are demanding that Serbia stop direct flights to Russia and introduce a visa regime for Russians.
Direct Western intervention has so far been minimal, because Vucic himself is far from the most unpleasant figure for Western countries. In addition, the current political and civil field in Serbia is such that it has not yet been possible to form leaders of a new opposition, Entina believes.
"The foreign factor in the protests will expand due to the fact that Western funds and countries will take over, if they have not yet taken up the formation of a political leadership link in these protests," the political scientist emphasizes.
How will the situation develop in Serbia
The next parliamentary and presidential elections in the Balkan republic are scheduled to take place in 2027. However, Vucic has already stated that the representative body will be updated ahead of schedule, although he has not yet given an exact date. The politician also confirmed that he has no plans to change the constitution and run for a new presidential term in 2027. His current cadence is scheduled to end on May 31, 2027.
— I am a political veteran, I can no longer nominate my candidacy, it does not occur to me to change the constitution. Since I am not the dictator you imagine me to be, I am ending my presidential career in a year and a half. I am proud of what I have done," the Serbian leader emphasized.
However, this statement, if it was aimed at calming the political situation, did not achieve its goal. The intensity of the confrontation has not decreased, as now the protesters are demanding a change of the entire political elite of the country.
The protests will become more and more violent and, most likely, Aleksandar Vucic will be forced to announce his resignation or hold new elections at all levels of government, Ekaterina Entina predicts.
— It is fundamentally important who will form the political lists of new party movements, including the socio-political movement of protesters. So far, its core consists of citizens of patriotic orientation, but it is not yet clear whether they will be able to preserve the spirit embedded in the protests in the face of great external interest," the expert noted.
Milan Lazovich agrees that it is still difficult to talk about the prospects of normalization. He draws attention to the fact that the protesters have narrowed the field for maneuver and literally set themselves the goal of removing President Vucic from power. The Serbian authorities are not ready to do this. Consequently, demonstrations, blockades and pogroms will continue. The authorities probably need to look for compromise solutions, while responding appropriately to violations of public order.
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