See you soon: what happens to the market before the Putin-Trump summit
Currently, there are three possible outcomes of the negotiations between Vladimir Putin and Donald Trump: the first is the signing of all agreements, the second is that a big step will be taken towards resolving relations at the meeting, but in a negative scenario, the conflict will continue and new sanctions await the Russian Federation. The presidents will meet in Alaska on August 15. Experts believe that de—escalation of the Ukrainian conflict, anti-Russian restrictions and trade wars are among the key topics. It is expected that in a positive scenario, the ruble will strengthen below 75 per dollar, and the Moscow Exchange index may reach 3,300 points. How else can the negotiations end and how much gold and national currency will cost — in the Izvestia article.
How will the Moscow Exchange react to the meeting between Putin and Trump
At the August 15 meeting, Putin and Trump may discuss not only the resolution of the Ukrainian conflict, but also other economic issues. Among the key ones are anti—Russian sanctions and tariffs against countries that buy Russian energy resources.
In addition, the parties are likely to touch upon issues of interaction and the implementation of joint projects in the Arctic, as well as communications in the space sector, says Artem Lyukshin, Associate professor of the Department of State and Municipal Finance at Plekhanov Russian University of Economics. In general, among the main metrics for the success of the upcoming negotiations are the following: the degree of de—escalation of the Ukrainian conflict, the pace of lifting sanctions against Russia, and the launch of joint business projects between countries separated by the Bering Strait, independent expert Andrei Barkhota said.
Experts predicted to Izvestia three possible outcomes of the negotiations:
a positive scenario that involves the signing of key agreements between Russia and America, as well as the resolution of the Ukrainian conflict.;
neutral — the meeting of the two leaders will be only the first big step towards resolving the situation.;
A negative outcome is the breakdown of negotiations, the withdrawal of the parties from the dialogue and the imposition of new sanctions against the Russian Federation.
If the negotiations between Putin and Trump do not go smoothly, the United States may strengthen sanctions or impose secondary duties, US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent threatened on August 13.
At the same time, the stock market, the ruble, and gold will behave differently under the three scenarios described.
The Moscow Exchange is already responding to the upcoming meeting. For example, on August 11, the index of the trading platform exceeded 3,000 points for the first time in the last three and a half months. At the maximum, the indicator rose by 3.1% to 3015.6 points.
If, at the end of the negotiations, a truce is concluded in the Ukrainian conflict and at least part of the anti-Russian sanctions are lifted, the Moscow Exchange index may rise to at least 3,300 points, said Igor Dodonov, an analyst at Finam.
If the negotiations fail, and some experts nevertheless allowed such a possibility, the indicator will roll back to 2,800 points. In a neutral scenario, the Moscow Exchange index will fluctuate in the range of 2900-3000 points — this is possible if there are no breakthroughs during the negotiations.
How will the ruble exchange rate change after the negotiations between Russia and the United States
Experts expect the ruble to strengthen significantly with positive developments. If tangible interim results are achieved in resolving the Ukrainian crisis, then a short-term drop in the dollar exchange rate to below 75 is possible, said Artem Lyukshin from Plekhanov Russian University of Economics.
According to the Central Bank, the national currency exchange rate on August 13 was at 79.87 rubles/$ — it has strengthened by almost a quarter since the beginning of the year. At the same time, the ruble has hardly changed since August 8 (when the negotiations were announced).
If the meeting does develop positively and the parties agree on conditions acceptable to all, then the ruble may receive support and strengthen a little more, Alexander Potavin from Finam agreed. However, according to him, this will be an emotional market reaction rather than a fundamental one.
Independent expert Andrey Barkhota, on the contrary, believes that further strengthening of the national currency looks unlikely. As a result of the meeting, economic cooperation between the Russian Federation and the United States will expand. Such processes will be accompanied by an increase in demand for the currency and, consequently, the transition to a weaker ruble. By the end of the year, the exchange rate will reach about 92-95 rubles/$.
If negotiations reach an impasse and events follow a negative scenario, this will eventually lead to a shortage of foreign currency, Alexander Potavin noted. It will also worsen problems with cross-border settlements, thereby increasing the volatility of the ruble. In this case, in the fall, the dollar may cost more than 85 rubles, experts interviewed by Izvestia believe.
However, analysts predict that the meeting between the two leaders will be more formal. So far, it is seen only as the first step in solving urgent issues.
How much will gold cost in 2025
Gold prices may also react to the results of the talks between Putin and Trump. Over the past few years, the precious metal has already significantly risen in price against the background of growing risks in the global economy. For example, last week its price jumped to $3,409 per troy ounce, as Donald Trump imposed duties on the import of ingots weighing more than 1 kg into the United States, Natalia Milchakova, a leading analyst at Freedom Finance Global, drew attention. According to her, this could raise concerns that Switzerland and the UK would redirect gold to other markets, which could lead to a temporary shortage.
In the UK, it is customary to store precious metals in bars weighing 400 troy ounces (more than 11 kg), which means they will be affected by Trump's new restrictions. Although the main trade is conducted between exchanges in London and New York, Switzerland is mainly engaged in the melting of bullion and refining of gold. From June 2024 to June 2025, the country exported $61.5 billion worth of gold to America. However, in August, Trump imposed import duties of 39% on Switzerland.
The increase in gold prices is partly due to the cheaper dollar, said Nikolai Dudchenko, analyst at Finam Financial Group. In addition, uncertainty in the financial market due to Trump's import tariffs remains high, said Ilya Fedorov, chief economist at BCS World Investments.
If the negotiations take place in a positive manner and the prospects for resolving the Ukrainian crisis are traced, this will reduce the degree of geopolitical tension and contribute to a decrease in gold prices, believes Artem Lyukshin from Plekhanov Russian University of Economics. According to experts interviewed by Izvestia, in this case, the price of the precious metal will drop to about $ 3,000-3,200 per troy ounce.
In case of unsuccessful negotiations, gold will jump in price and reach $3,500-$3,600, said Vladimir Chernov, analyst at Freedom Finance Global.
Can the United States lift sanctions against Russia
— However, even in a positive scenario, the probability of a quick lifting of anti-Russian sanctions is very low. This will be the next stage of mutual rapprochement between the parties — it will happen only after several more rounds of negotiations," believes Alexander Potavin from Finam.
Most likely, the situation in the coming weeks and months will remain the same, he believes. In this case, the United States will continue to impose sanctions on buyers of Russian oil, which will mean a decrease in Russia's income from the sale of energy resources. According to the updated plan of the Ministry of Finance, the budget deficit is expected to reach 3.8 trillion rubles this year. However, in seven months it has already amounted to 4.9 trillion.
Nevertheless, it is important for Russia now not only to normalize relations with Ukraine, but also to have stable trade with a number of countries. Therefore, most likely, the authorities will continue the dialogue on conflict resolution.
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