Crop failure code: Trump's sanctions over trade with Russia will hit Latin America

Potential secondary sanctions against Russia's trading partners could damage Latin America's agricultural sector. The main exporters of agricultural products to the United States and the EU, which depend on Russian fertilizers, will face serious difficulties if Donald Trump introduces new duties. This will significantly complicate the trade turnover. Russian Ambassador Alexey Labetsky told Izvestia that a third of fertilizers imported by Brazil come from our country. In the first half of 2025, these imports increased by 32% and reached $2 billion. During the same period, Mexico increased imports of Russian potash fertilizers by 97%, the Russian diplomatic mission in Mexico City reported. American consumers will also suffer from the costs of tariff wars. The negative consequences of Trump's policy for Latin America and the global economy are described in the Izvestia article.

Trump's sanctions may affect importers of Russian fertilizers in Latin America

As the deadline for resolving the conflict in Ukraine approaches, Donald Trump has promised to impose even more secondary sanctions against Russia's trading partners. The US president is expected to exert pressure on the most significant industries in terms of cooperation with the Russian Federation. For example, additional duties of 25% have already been imposed against India due to the purchase of oil from Russia. On August 6, Trump signed a corresponding decree with the title "Countering threats to the United States from the Government of the Russian Federation."

So far, the head of the White House has not yet specified which import duties await everyone individually, but the agricultural countries of Latin America, which are largely tied to exporting their products to the United States, have already begun to calculate potential losses. The region ranks second after Asia in terms of exported agricultural products, and Russia is one of the largest producers of mineral fertilizers. In the first half of 2025 alone, the country exported 22.7 million tons, exceeding last year's figure by 8%. At the same time, Latin America is becoming Russia's main sales market. Brazil, in particular, imports impressive volumes.

— The supply of Russian fertilizers continues to grow, with imports increasing by 32% to $2 billion in the first six months of this year. According to the latest published statistics, domestic mineral fertilizers account for more than 30% of total Brazilian imports in this sector," Russian Ambassador to Brazil Alexei Labetsky told Izvestia.

In total, Brazil imports 80% of its fertilizers. Besides Russia, China also supplies them in large quantities. At the same time, business circles in the South American country note that without the amount of fertilizers that Brazil buys from Russia, the production of soybeans and corn will become impossible.

Mexico is also heavily dependent on imported fertilizers in Latin America. According to the Ministry of Agriculture, 74% of national fertilizer consumption is accounted for by imported products, the Russian Embassy in Mexico City told Izvestia.

— In the last decade, Russia has traditionally held a leading position among the main suppliers of fertilizers to Mexico. These are nitrogen, potash and complex fertilizers. In the first six months of 2025, the supply of potash fertilizers increased by 95.7% by weight compared to the same period in 2024, but they show a slight decrease of 9% by weight, the embassy said.

Colombia is in a similar situation. Bogota imported $580 million worth of fertilizers last year, with a quarter of the fertilizers coming from Russia. Local farmers, expecting changes in the structure of imports, are rightly afraid that if the quality of fertilizers deteriorates, the harvest volume may decrease.

Where does Latin America export its agricultural products

Most of Latin America's agricultural exports are meat, tropical fruits, sugar and cereals. In the case of Colombia, it's also flowers and coffee. Agricultural products from the region are purchased by the USA, the EU, China and Russia.

The cost, quality and availability of fertilizers directly affect the volume of agricultural production, as well as their price. In turn, an increase in the cost of agricultural goods affects the socio-economic situation in the region, and this may force some of the population to simply leave their country.

At the same time, Brazil, despite additional American restrictions, is likely to continue to purchase fertilizers from Russia, its long—time BRICS partner, while Mexico and Colombia, with more modest economic potential, will probably have to look for an alternative supplier.

— However, Mexico and Colombia will not be able to simultaneously abandon Russian fertilizers, since the markets have already been formed and some progress in them will take time. Nevertheless, sanctions violate all existing logistics chains," Viktor Kheifets, a professor at St. Petersburg State University, tells Izvestia.

In any case, the effect of both the price increase for the final product and the additional duties will directly affect the American consumer. For example, a change in the supplier of fertilizers for Mexico will certainly lead to an increase in prices for avocados and mangoes, which are mostly exported from there. Fruits mainly go to the USA, as well as to Canada and the Netherlands. In general, the United States imports about 23% of all its agricultural products from Mexico. And for this Latin American country, the United States is generally the main market for agricultural products, with about 74% of goods going there.

Heavily dependent on the USA and Colombia. However, against the background of other tariff rates that Washington imposed on its trading partners, Bogota received a relatively low duty of 10%. This also gives Colombia an advantage over other coffee exporters, Brazil with a tariff of 50% and Vietnam with a tariff of 20%.

Brazil faced the highest tariffs in Latin America. On July 30, Donald Trump signed a decree raising duties on the country's products to 50%, but introduced a list of 700 exceptions in strategic sectors, including aircraft manufacturing, energy and partly agriculture.

— There are products that the United States mainly buys from Brazil. In particular, this is why Trump removed orange juice from sanctions. Both in the United States and in the world, there will be a serious increase in coffee prices if this product is subjected to sanctions pressure. For Brazil, the loss of part of the American market will be a serious blow," notes Heifetz.

For Brazil, a partial loss of economic sovereignty would be very painful, given the country's political weight. The other day, its leader Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva pointedly refused to call the American Donald Trump to resolve the differences. At the same time, Heifetz emphasizes that against the background of the tariff war with Trump, the government of Lula da Silva is under very strong pressure from the economic opposition and elites who would like to see an agreement with the United States in the near future.