The bet was made: the delinquency of small businesses on loans reached a record 767 billion

The delinquency of small and medium—sized businesses on loans has reached a record in at least four years - 767 billion rubles, calculated by Izvestia according to the Central Bank. Over the year, it grew by 14%, while the total debt did not increase so noticeably, and the disbursements sank by a quarter. This indicates a deterioration in the quality of the loan portfolio. The main reasons are the high key rate, rising costs due to higher fees and prices, and falling consumer demand. About whether SMEs are in danger of massive bankruptcies and what measures can reduce the burden on companies, see the Izvestia article.

Why small business loan delinquencies are on the rise

In January – May 2025, small and medium-sized businesses received loans of almost 6 trillion rubles, a quarter less than a year earlier. At the same time, total debt increased by 9% to about 16 trillion, and overdue payments increased significantly more — by 14%, to 766 billion. This has been a record since at least 2021 (there is no data for an earlier period), calculated by Izvestia according to statistics from the Central Bank. The editorial board sent a request to the Ministry of Energy.

At the same time, the Central Bank believes that it is not entirely correct to compare the absolute amount of delay with data from previous years. The regulator's press service explained to Izvestia that the total amount of loans issued and debt in general are growing along with it. A more relevant relative indicator is the share of overdue payments in the structure of all obligations. Since the beginning of the year, it has started to grow: from a historical low on January 1, it increased by 0.6 percentage points and amounted to 5% on July 1. Nevertheless, the level remains acceptable, the Bank of Russia added.

However, the outstripping increase in delinquency still indicates that the quality of the portfolio is decreasing, explained Vladimir Eremkin, senior researcher at the IPEI Structural Research Laboratory at the Presidential Academy. He explained that the total amount of debt increased less as demand for loans decreased due to high interest rates, and banks tightened the issuance of new loans to SMEs due to increased risks.

— Companies have become worse at servicing debts, and new loans are being issued less frequently due to the high cost of borrowing, as the average rate on short-term loans reached 23.3% per annum in May. Thus, the volume of new loans does not compensate for the growth of problem debt," added Vladimir Chernov, analyst at Freedom Finance Global.

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Which businesses have been affected the most

The main reason for the increase in delays is the high key rate. From July 2024 to June 2025, it increased from 16% to 21%, Pavel Samiev, Chairman of the Opora Russia Committee on Financial Markets, recalled. Even at the current 18%, banks add 5-7 percentage points to it, and the rate for borrowers reaches 23-25% (previously it even reached 30%). Only a few companies are able to repay such a loan, so those who could do without loans refused them and froze business development.

It was especially difficult for entrepreneurs with loans already issued, Pavel Samiev continued. Most contracts provide for the bank's right to raise the rate when the key rate changes. As a result, loans taken out at 10-15% per annum rose in price to 25-30%, which proved to be unaffordable for many companies.

The second reason is weak consumer demand and rising costs amid accelerating inflation, Vladimir Chernov added. The situation was affected by tax indexation, an increase in the minimum wage by almost 17% to 22.4 thousand rubles, an increase in rental payments, as well as an increase in the cost of raw materials and equipment due to the weakening of the ruble and sanctions, said Maxim Maksimov, Associate professor of the Department of Innovation and Industrial Policy Management at Plekhanov Russian University of Economics.

— The profitability of the business is declining due to the rising cost of raw materials and logistics. This is influenced by rising prices for imported trucks after increased recycling, rising gasoline prices and staff shortages," added Petr Shcherbachenko, associate professor at the Financial University under the Government of the Russian Federation.

Finally, the seasonal factor worsened the situation. In the spring, companies simultaneously paid taxes (VAT, income tax), insurance premiums and rent, Maxim Maksimov recalled. For many, especially in the low—margin sectors such as retail, catering and construction, this was the final push towards delinquency.

According to the Bank of Russia, SMEs from scientific and technical activities, construction, real estate, trade and finance have accumulated the most debts. Vladimir Chernov believes that the largest volumes of delays are concentrated there. According to him, these segments are particularly sensitive to rates and demand. It is especially difficult for microbusiness in retail and catering, as low margins, falling revenue and the lack of an airbag make them the most vulnerable.

The increase in the key rate has particularly affected agriculture, where the volume of delays has increased by almost 70%, said Vladimir Eremkin. At the same time, the indicator increased almost 1.5 times in housing construction and leasing companies.

How to help a business with problem debts

The increase in overdue loans from SMEs is an alarming signal, says Vladimir Chernov from Freedom Finance Global. It increases the burden on banks, restricts business access to borrowed funds, and can trigger a chain of defaults. Without easing monetary policy or targeted government support, it will be difficult for companies with impaired debt discipline to restore their solvency.

If the rates remain at the current level, the volume of delays by the end of the year may exceed 850-880 billion, the expert predicts. However, if the key rate is reduced or new preferential programs are launched, the growth rate will slow down. The most likely scenario is an increase in delays by 10-12% from the current level.

Many companies, especially in the consumer sector and construction, are working on the verge of profitability, servicing debts at the expense of current revenue, Maxim Maksimov from the Russian University of Economics added. If the key issue remains the same and there are no additional support measures, then an increase in the number of bankruptcies is possible in the second half of the year. This will lead to increased unemployment and a chain reaction of defaults between counterparties, which is especially dangerous for regions with a mono-economy.

— SMEs account for over 22% of GDP. Reducing its investment and operating activities will inevitably slow down economic growth. Since small players often enter the production chains of large companies, problems in this segment can cause a crisis of non—payments in the corporate sector," the expert added.

At the same time, the current bankruptcy legislation is mainly focused on the liquidation of companies, Pavel Samiev from Opora Russia recalled. The mechanisms of rehabilitation and restructuring are practically not prescribed and are rarely used: only 2-3% of enterprises receive such an opportunity. In most cases, the procedure ends with the termination of work.

In addition, now that a loan is overdue, banks are required to form reserves of up to 100% of its amount, which directly affects profits and capital, especially for small financial organizations, the financier added. Starting in October, SMEs will be able to take a six-month loan vacation once, but the measure is too late and the deadline is too short. With a high key rate, banks should be allowed not to create additional reserves if the debt is restructured and serviced according to a new schedule, Pavel Samiev believes.

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Currently, the level of overdue debt remains extremely low, so there are no serious risks, according to the press service of the Central Bank. They added that if SMEs face difficulties in paying off debts, they can contact banks to restructure loans. However, experts note that it is very difficult to negotiate with banks on changing the terms of debt to small businesses.

The expansion of restructuring programs, extension of preferential loans and deferred payments for the most affected industries will help reduce the burden on businesses, Vladimir Chernov believes. Non—financial measures are also important - speeding up government orders, reducing administrative pressure, and access to long-term contracts. However, the main factor remains a gradual reduction in the key rate, which will make refinancing cheaper and restore demand for loans.

However, a number of measures to help enterprises are already in place. In particular, the SME Corporation helps to resolve the problematic debts of small and medium-sized businesses, recalled Alexander Isaevich, the organization's CEO. Other measures include "umbrella" guarantees, in which half of the debt is repaid for the borrower, as well as preferential loans for investment purposes. Upon receipt of requests, the corporation facilitates the restructuring of overdue payments through banks.