Former in increase: demand for secondary increased after a decrease in key
Prices for second homes may rise by 10% amid increased buyer interest, market participants and analysts told Izvestia. After the reduction of the key rate, the demand for secondary has already increased by 15-20%. As a result, both new and seasonal interest can "overheat" the market, which will lead to an increase in housing costs, experts believe. Sellers have already begun to reduce the amount of discounts for buyers, which reached a record 6.4% in 2025. How the situation in the secondary real estate market will develop is described in the Izvestia article.
How much has the interest in recycling increased?
After the decline in key demand for secondary real estate has increased significantly, market participants told Izvestia. This figure in early August was 15-20% compared to the situation a month earlier. On July 25, the Bank of Russia set the rate at 18%, reducing it by 2 percentage points.
"Last year, this rate level was achieved as a result of a series of increases, which coincided with the completion of a massive preferential mortgage and led to a decrease in the number of transactions," said Avito Real Estate expert Artur Akhmetov. — Then the majority of buyers tried to enter into a deal in the last month of the preferential program, in June 2024. Now the situation is reversed: the adjustment of monetary policy is perceived by market participants as a positive signal and may stimulate a revival in demand.
After lowering the key rate, some of the major banks reacted almost instantly: they revised the terms of mortgage issuance, reducing rates to 18.7%, said Sergey Zaitsev, sales director of the federal company Floors.
"If such a rate was prohibitive for the market a few years ago, then over the 16 months of low availability of loans in the secondary market, the volume of pent—up demand turned out to be so large that lowering rates to this level had an effect," he said. — According to our estimates, interest in buying ready—made housing has increased dramatically by 15-17%, and the number of mortgage consultations has increased by an average of 8-10%.
According to the expert, not only those who plan to purchase ready—made housing with borrowed funds have become more active, but also those who have been saving money on deposits in order to improve housing conditions. Now some of the money from deposits is starting to return to the real estate market.
The growth of interest in the secondary market is indeed recorded after the start of the key rate reduction cycle, confirmed Evgeny Belokurov, commercial director of Yandex Real Estate.
"According to our data, activity increased by about 1% in July compared to June, and by 10.5% compared to May," he said. — The dynamics in the number of phone number views in ads is especially noticeable. This indicates that users have become more active in calling sellers. So far, we are seeing the effect of pent-up demand.
According to Evgeny Shavnev, CEO of the Flip real estate investment company, the growth in demand for secondary real estate is still recorded at about 4-6% compared to the beginning of July.
"This is partly due to the fact that the share of mortgage approvals has increased by an average of 2-5%," he said. — In addition, the first wave of refinancing has now begun among those customers who applied for a mortgage last year. On average, a 2 percentage point reduction in the rate is a reduction in the monthly payment by several thousand rubles, which is often noticeable for mortgage borrowers. Now, mostly those who have savings in the amount of 3-9 million rubles, depending on the region, come to the deal.
Natalia Kruglova, Managing partner of Trophy Assets, an independent expert, also agreed that apartments began to sell faster in cities with millions of residents. The restoration of buyer activity was also confirmed by Artur Akhmetov.
Why has interest increased after the key rate cut
Buyers took the rate cut as a signal that they should expect an increase in housing prices, Natalia Kruglova said.
"This will happen due to the entry of money from bank deposits into the residential real estate market, which currently amounts to about 40 trillion rubles, according to the Central Bank," she said. — This amount is a huge amount of liquidity that can flow into the real asset market if deposit rates continue to decline.
Given the reduction in housing starts in the new building market, there may be a shortage of supply relative to demand, and the secondary real estate market will receive an impetus to increase the cost per square meter.
"If the Central Bank's rate continues to decline, housing prices may rise by an additional 5-10% by the end of the year," she believes.
The demand for secondary housing is also fueling the price gap that has formed in comparison with new buildings, Sergei Zaitsev noted. The average price per square meter for such housing in Russia is now 19-20% lower than in the primary market.
"Many of those who plan to take out a market mortgage to buy ready—made housing expect to refinance it at a lower rate in the future, and benefit from the current discount," he explained. — However, discounts will start to decrease sharply as demand revives and mortgage availability increases.
The average level of bidding for the sale of ready—made housing has reached a record 6.4%, the restoration of consumer activity may return the discount to the level of 4-4.5%, and liquid apartments will continue to increase in price by 0.5–1% on a monthly basis.
In addition to lowering mortgage rates, which increases housing affordability, deferred demand also plays an important role in increasing consumer activity in the real estate market, says Yulia Dymova, director of the Est-a-Tet Department of Secondary Real Estate. Many buyers seek to purchase housing immediately, not wanting to delay decisions for a long time.
"An additional factor is the beginning of a new business cycle, which contributes to the revival of the market," she said. — The observed dynamics confirms the growing interest of buyers in secondary real estate, expressed in an increase in the number of transactions. Sellers who have been waiting for a long time begin to actively conclude deals, striving to complete the sale of objects and realize their goals.
The double-digit increase in second-home sales can be explained by the effect of a low base, said Valery Tumin, Director of Russian and CIS Markets at fam Properties.
"Due to the high key and mortgage rates, the secondary housing market has fallen, as, with rare exceptions, there are no government benefits for its purchase," he said. — That is, such real estate is bought either for cash or with a mortgage, which until recently was up to 30% per annum.
The cooled market reacted with record discounts on second homes of more than 6%, and the share of exchange transactions in the first four months of 2025 increased to 85% in Russia and 70% in Moscow.
— There were other alternative complex housing purchase schemes with up to four or five participants, - said the expert. — Accordingly, the share and number of direct sales decreased. With a decrease in the key interest rate, pent-up demand for mortgages is awakening, which was waiting for exactly these "psychological values."
Will prices rise in the secondary housing market
If the cycle of monetary policy easing continues, interest in the secondary market will continue to grow, believes Evgeny Belokurov from Yandex Real Estate.
"This may lead to a slight increase in prices in popular segments, especially for liquid facilities in good locations," the expert said. — However, we do not expect a significant increase in cost. Potential buyers of ready-made housing are very sensitive to market mortgage rates, which remain at fairly high levels.
But Evgeny Shavnev from Flip is confident that with a further reduction in the rate, the demand for real estate will definitely grow.
"In addition, this will be facilitated, in particular, by an ambitious urban development plan for Moscow," he believes.
Further easing of monetary policy will affect the mortgage market, including secondary mortgages, according to Valery Tumin from fam Properties.
"Along with the growth in demand, we expect prices to rise or at least a decrease in the discount at first, as well as the transfer of some of the properties from lease to lots for sale," he believes. — After a sharp increase in the key interest rate, which means that it is not possible to purchase housing, rental rates have increased. And those who could wait with the sale preferred to make money on rent.
Reducing the key interest rate and increasing housing affordability, according to him, will release additional supply from the rental market to the sales market.
Further market trends, according to Yulia Dymova from Est-a-Tet, depend on the ratio of supply and demand. If the activity of buyers continues, but the supply turns out to be insufficient, a moderate increase in the cost of housing is possible, mainly among newly arriving properties.
— The expected increase in cost is at the level of 5-7%, — she believes. — Nevertheless, today the market is characterized by a sufficient volume of offers, however, potential buyers are advised to make decisions promptly, taking into account the prevailing favorable market conditions.
In the primary market, according to Avito Real Estate expert Artur Akhmetov, there may be an increase in buyer activity within the framework of projects already put on sale. No significant price changes are expected in the near future.
"However, with a further reduction in the cost of borrowed funds and the activation of subsidy programs, demand may increase, which over time may begin to affect price dynamics," he added.
In general, the Central Bank's decision opens a window of opportunity for both developers and buyers, experts say. The future situation will depend on the Central Bank's policy, including the results of its meeting scheduled for September, as well as the flexibility of banking offers and the activity of market participants in developing market-based and preferential mortgage solutions.
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