A hopeless partner: The EU has lost €1 trillion from severing ties with Russia in the energy sector

The losses of the European Union from the termination of energy cooperation and the curtailment of trade with Russia exceeded € 1 trillion, Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Alexander Grushko told Izvestia. Against this background, the EU economy is losing competitiveness. The cost of gas in the Union is four to five times higher than in the United States, and electricity is two to three times more expensive, he said. Grushko stressed that the trade volumes of the European Union and Russia tend to zero. Against this background, Donald Trump imposed trade duties of 15% against the EU. Its economy will sag further, and investment activity will actually reset to zero, analysts say. What awaits the European market in the face of tariff barriers and sanctions policy is in the Izvestia article.

How much has Brussels lost from the breakup with Russia

The EU's losses from the termination of cooperation with Russia in the energy sector and the curtailment of trade exceeded €1 trillion, Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Alexander Grushko told Izvestia.

— There are different estimates. If we talk about most experts, then the total is already more than a trillion euros, if we keep in mind the losses from the termination of energy cooperation with Russia, from the curtailment of trade. In 2013, we had €417 billion in trade, in the past — €60 billion, now it tends to virtually zero. This is a lost profit," Grushko told Izvestia.

Photo: Global Look Press/Frank Hoermann/SVEN SIMON

Refusal to cooperate with Russia affects the competitiveness of the EU economy. According to the Russian Deputy Foreign Minister, the cost of natural gas in Europe is four to five times higher than in the United States, and electricity is twice or three times more expensive.

"This is the price that Europe has to pay for curtailing any economic contacts with Russia," the diplomat stressed.

The EU has lost about 200 billion euros due to the refusal to import Russian gas alone, Russian President Vladimir Putin said at a plenary session of the St. Petersburg International Economic Forum (SPIEF). At a meeting with Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko, Putin stressed that the loss of political sovereignty by Brussels now leads to the loss of economic independence. The total losses of the EU from sanctions against Russia, according to "the most conservative estimates," amount to about $ 1.5 trillion, the Russian Foreign Ministry said earlier.

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Will interest in Russian energy resources drop amid the large-scale imposition of duties

The consequences of severing ties with Russia are also reflected in the pan-European GDP: in 2023, it grew by only 0.5%. And the European economy will not be able to achieve high rates of development in the near future: in 2024, GDP increased by 1%, in 2025 it is expected to increase by 1.1%, in 2026 - by another 1.5%, according to Eurostat data. For comparison, in 2021, when Russian energy resources were freely supplied to the European market, the EU economy increased by more than 5%.

Photo: Global Look Press/Rupert Oberhauser/imagebroker.com

At the same time, Brussels is not going to stop in the confrontation with Russia. Since the beginning of 2025, three additional packages of anti-Russian sanctions have already been adopted, and discussions on the 19th set of restrictions are beginning, Izvestia wrote earlier. On the other hand, there are forces within the European Union that advocate normalization of relations with Russia. Slovakia and Hungary have repeatedly blocked the introduction of new restrictions, seeking exceptions for themselves. In Germany, Italy and France, opposition forces advocate abandoning the sanctions policy against the Russian Federation.

Even supporters of sanctions point to their ineffectiveness: the West has failed to achieve a change in Russia's policy, and there has also been no turning point in the fighting in Ukraine. "The sanctions obviously did not stop the Russian Federation, they did not deprive it of the possibility of conducting a military operation," said, for example, Jake Sullivan, national security adviser to US President Joe Biden in 2024.

The Russian economy remains resilient despite difficult external conditions. The decline in GDP in 2022 was only 2.1%, and then it returned to a growth trajectory, and above the global average. The Russian economy benefited from high global energy prices and the reorientation of export flows to China and India.

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How the trade war with the United States affects the European economy

The European economy, on the contrary, is facing new challenges. With the advent of the Donald Trump administration in January 2025, the United States moved to a tariff war with almost the entire world. On August 1, the American president signed an executive order imposing duties against 69 countries, ranging from 10 to 41%. For most EU goods, the duty is set at 15%. And the highest tariffs have been imposed on Syria, Myanmar, Switzerland, Iraq, Serbia and South Africa.

Photo: REUTERS/Carlos Barria/File Photo

Earlier, Donald Trump met in Scotland with the head of the European Commission, Ursula von der Leyen, and the parties concluded a political agreement that has no legal force. Instead of the promised 30% duties, the head of the White House agreed to introduce 15%. In return, Brussels pledged to establish a preferential customs regime for American goods and to purchase at least $750 billion worth of energy from the United States over the next three years, as well as to invest $600 billion in the U.S. economy. However, a number of European politicians reacted negatively to such terms of the deal, and the text of the document itself was never fully published.

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Europe may view this agreement as a victory, but in any case, American duties of 15% will hit European exports. The consequence will be a surge in inflation in the EU and the United States, Georgy Ostapkovich, research director of the HSE Center for Economic Research and Economic Development, said in an interview with Izvestia.

— The agreement with the United States that Russian energy resources will finally leave the European market and be replaced by American ones may cause a conflict between the EU and Qatar and other suppliers. In addition, this will lead to a change in logistics and higher prices," the expert said.

Photo: Global Look Press/Kurt Desplenter/Keystone Press Agency

The breakdown of economic relations with Russia and the trade conflict with the United States reduce the EU's global competitiveness and effectively nullify investment activity in the association, Alexander Kamkin, associate professor at the Financial University, told Izvestia.

— Trump's duties will greatly complicate the life of the German automotive industry, primarily the chemical industry, because most of the German products are exported, including to the United States, as semi-finished products. In general, the EU economy will additionally decline, there is no need to talk about any prospects for growth and investment activity," Kamkin said.

The trend of transferring the production of European companies to other countries will continue. In addition to the United States, corporations may move to some countries in Southeast Asia and Eastern Europe, where there are skilled workers. The expert emphasizes that the United States is particularly interested in relocating European production facilities, since the EU is their competitor in high—tech industries.