Milovidov spoke about the impact of a high key interest rate on the availability of loans

The high key interest rate makes consumer loans and mortgages virtually inaccessible to most citizens. In these conditions, the population prefers to save money for deposits rather than invest or take out loans. This reduces final demand and slows down economic growth. Vladimir Milovidov, Deputy Director for Science of IMEMO RAS, Member of the Board of the Russian Academy of Sciences, Doctor of Economics, told about this on July 25 at the Izvestia press center during a round table on the topic "Key Rate: forecasts, risks and opportunities."

According to the expert, even at the current level of the key interest rate, mortgage loans remain economically impractical for the majority of Russians. He cited a calculation on a non-market mortgage, according to which an apartment worth 11 million rubles over 30 years costs 29 million rubles under current conditions. As the economist noted, this is a threefold increase in price at a rate of around 15-16%.

Milovidov pointed out that rates on consumer loans remain high, and microloans are offered at 2-3 times interest rates. Deposits are becoming an alternative for citizens, especially with a yield of about 18-20%, which makes savings more profitable than consumption or investment.

Milovidov noted that at this rate, enterprises also postpone internal investments: it is more profitable to keep available funds on deposits than to launch projects with a yield of 7%. In these conditions, according to the expert, it is impossible to support the final demand through loans. The population has limited opportunities to finance large purchases, and most of its income goes to deposits.

"You can't take a loan because it's expensive. It is impossible to support human demand through credit," he stressed.

The economist concluded that at the current key interest rate, there are virtually no other savings instruments other than bank deposits. The stock market remains niche and inaccessible to most citizens.

"For an ordinary person, an ordinary average person, there is nothing but 18%," he concluded.

Waiting for the key: the dynamics of the ruble exchange rate will be determined by the outcome of the Central Bank meeting

Most experts predict a rate of no more than 80 rubles per dollar, even taking into account the reduction in the key rate

On the same day, the Central Bank of the Russian Federation lowered its key rate to 18% per annum. It was noted that further decisions on the key rate will be made depending on the sustainability of the slowdown in inflation and the dynamics of inflation expectations. According to the Central Bank's forecast, annual inflation will decrease to 6-7% this year, and in 2026 it will return to 4%.

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