The Central Bank lowered the key rate from 20% to 18% per annum

Following a meeting of the Board of Directors on July 25, the Bank of Russia lowered its key rate by 2 percentage points to 18% per annum. This is stated in a message on the regulator's website.

"On July 25, 2025, the Board of Directors of the Bank of Russia decided to reduce the key rate by 200 bp to 18.00% per annum. Current inflationary pressures, including sustained ones, are decreasing faster than previously predicted," the publication clarifies.

The Central Bank noted that despite the slowdown in inflation, there has not yet been a steady decline in inflation expectations. However, long-term expectations also showed some weakening. Economic activity, as indicated in the Central Bank, continues to move towards balanced growth.

The issue of further adjustment of the key rate, as noted by the regulator, will depend on the sustainability of the reduction in inflationary pressure and the behavior of inflationary expectations.

According to the updated forecast of the regulator, annual inflation will range from 6 to 7% by the end of this year. A return to the 4% target is expected during 2026.

Waiting for the key: the dynamics of the ruble exchange rate will be determined by the outcome of the Central Bank meeting

Most experts predict a rate of no more than 80 rubles per dollar, even taking into account the reduction in the key rate

Earlier in the day, the Central Bank lowered its key rate to 18%. It was clarified that further decisions on the key rate will be made depending on the sustainability of the slowdown in inflation and the dynamics of inflation expectations.

Economist Alexey Rodin, in an interview with Izvestia, emphasized the further development of the Russian economy due to the reduction in the cost of loans. The expert called the increase in the availability of loans for ordinary citizens another positive aspect of reducing the key interest rate.

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