In our opinion, Moscow will rely on its interests in negotiations with Kiev.
Moscow will proceed from its national interests in negotiations with Kiev, although Russia takes into account the words of Donald Trump about the need to achieve peace with Ukraine in 50 days. This was stated to Izvestia by the head of the Federation Council Committee on International Affairs, Grigory Karasin. The third round of Russian-Ukrainian talks is scheduled to take place in Istanbul this week. Russian media reports that the meeting may take place on July 23, Kiev calls the same date. According to Izvestia, a press conference of representatives of the Russian delegation is scheduled for Wednesday at 20:00 in Istanbul. Whether Trump's ultimatum can bring a peaceful settlement closer and what to expect from the third round is in the Izvestia article.
Why Trump's demand won't affect Russia's position
Negotiations between the delegations of Russia and Ukraine are due to take place again in Istanbul this week. The exact date and place of the meeting are still unknown. According to media reports, the meeting is scheduled for the evening of July 23 in Istanbul. However, the date and time are still being clarified. A press conference of representatives of the Russian delegation is scheduled to take place on July 23 at 20:00, a source familiar with the situation told Izvestia.
On July 14, Trump announced that the United States would impose secondary duties against Moscow in the amount of 100% if it did not see progress in the settlement in Ukraine. Russian Presidential spokesman Dmitry Peskov said that Ukraine perceives the decisions taken in Washington "not as a signal for peace, but as a signal for the continuation of the war."
— We take into account what Trump says, but I would refrain from using the phrase "take into account." We understand, we know, we take into account [Trump's ultimatum]. We proceed primarily from our national interests and the interests of maintaining the stability of international life," Grigory Karasin, head of the Federation Council Committee on International Affairs, told Izvestia.
At the same time, Vladimir Zelensky's rhetoric changed after Trump's speech. A month and a half after the second round, the head of the regime in Kiev announced that Ukraine had sent an offer to Moscow to hold a new meeting this week, on July 23.
The Kremlin did not name a specific date for the third round, but Moscow also hopes to meet with representatives of Kiev "this week," Dmitry Peskov said. "As soon as we are ready, we will make a timely announcement," he added. At the same time, there is no reason to "count on breakthroughs from the category of miracles" in the upcoming round of negotiations, the Kremlin's official representative stressed.
"Let's be blunt: the topic of the Ukrainian settlement is so complex that reaching agreements on the exchange or return of the bodies of the dead is already effective," he said.
One of the main topics of the negotiations should be the discussion of draft memoranda that the parties exchanged following the results of the second round. According to Peskov, both delegations "have a lot of work to do" before talking about a possible summit between Russia and Ukraine.
The last round of negotiations on a peaceful settlement took place on June 2, the previous one on May 16. The outcome of the two meetings was the exchange of prisoners and seriously wounded soldiers, as well as the transfer to Kiev of the bodies of dead soldiers of the Armed Forces of Ukraine. In addition, the parties provided each other with draft memoranda on the peaceful settlement of the conflict.
Since June 2, Moscow has repeatedly expressed its readiness to enter a new round. In Ukraine, they believe that the Russian Federation hopes for the "capitulation of Kiev." The deputy Head of the Ukrainian Foreign Ministry, Sergey Kislitsa, openly stated that the Istanbul format of meetings had almost exhausted itself.
U.S. attitude to the conflict in Ukraine
Experts believe that Trump's ultimatum should not be taken literally. The US President has repeatedly made many different statements, which ultimately did not translate into practice, Bogdan Bezpalko, a member of the Council on Interethnic Relations under the President of the Russian Federation, stressed in a conversation with Izvestia.
— Let's remember that Trump said that they would annex Canada, Greenland and the Panama Canal. But so far, it's all kind of quieted down. It is not necessary to attach specific business significance to Trump's statements that everything will be 100% exactly as he says, the expert believes.
The State Department has already stated on June 22 that the period of 50 days is not fixed. According to speaker Tammy Bruce, this is a "window" that can open at any time: "You can set a time window, and in two days everything will be different due to the course of the negotiations."
At the same time, if the American leader nevertheless goes to impose duties on the Russian Federation and its trading partners, it may bring down global trade and logistics. Moreover, a similar ultimatum was addressed to Ukraine. For example, if Russian troops take control of new territories in 50 days, Kiev will have to negotiate on new terms, which will be unprofitable for it, the expert added.
Moreover, Trump has repeatedly had conflict situations with Vladimir Zelensky. One of the most high-profile cases was a verbal altercation in the Oval Office, after which Zelensky left the White House. Nevertheless, despite the differences between the parties, in July the American leader announced plans to transfer 17 Patriot complexes to Europe for Ukraine.
Russian-Ukrainian talks at the Chiragan Palace, Istanbul, Turkey
Trump's statements and appeals are unlikely to be able to influence the course of the third round, as both sides have completely different negotiating positions.
— I do not think that the resumption of dialogue can somehow reverse the overall dynamics of the conflict. The parties can agree on technical issues and formulate ideas about disagreements, but it seems that other people at the highest level should overcome these differences," Denis Denisov, a political scientist and expert at the Financial University under the Government of the Russian Federation, told Izvestia earlier.
Following the results of the second round, Moscow and Kiev exchanged memoranda, where they presented their positions on the settlement of the conflict. The Russian Federation called for the neutrality of Ukraine, the international legal recognition of the entry of Crimea, the LPR, the DPR, the Zaporizhia and Kherson regions into Russia, and the establishment of a maximum number of Armed Forces. Kiev, in turn, declared its desire to join NATO. They also noted that territorial issues should be resolved only after a complete ceasefire.
Experts believe that the upcoming third round will not bring Ukraine much closer to peace if the meetings are held in the same format. The delegations are not likely to change. Now, the Ukrainian group of negotiators, despite the reshuffle in the government, as in previous times, will be headed by Rustem Umerov. The current head of the defense department, Denis Shmygal, will not go to Istanbul. The Russian negotiating group will also remain in the same composition, Dmitry Peskov previously reported.
A discussion of peace in Ukraine in a different format could take place during a potential meeting of the leaders of Russia, China and the United States, experts believe. Earlier, The Times reported that Vladimir Putin, Donald Trump and Xi Jinping may meet in September 2025.
Переведено сервисом «Яндекс Переводчик»
