Information cold: what does the lack of Arctic dialogue between Russia and the West lead to?

Russia is capable of resolving all issues in the Arctic independently without Western states, Russian Ambassador to Canada Oleg Stepanov told Izvestia. Moscow can attract friendly countries. Cooperation here is mainly focused on transport logistics and energy, experts tell Izvestia. For example, China and India are already setting up transportation along the Northern Sea Route. ASEAN countries, including Vietnam, Thailand and Indonesia, are also interested in the NSR. Meanwhile, militarization is gradually beginning in the region, and the Arctic Council is almost paralyzed. With the accession of Finland and Sweden to NATO, Ottawa intends to turn the North into an arena of confrontation with Russia, the ambassador stressed. What is happening in the Arctic and whether the Russian Federation and the West can find common ground in this region is in the Izvestia article.

Potential and prospects of the Russian Federation in the Arctic

The lack of dialogue between key players in the Arctic increases risks not only for the environment, but also for global security. Today, the Arctic Council (AU) is practically paralyzed: seven Western members have refused to work with Russia in practice. After the start of the special military operation, Denmark, along with Greenland and the Faroe Islands, Iceland, Canada, Norway, the USA, Finland and Sweden boycotted the meetings under the Russian chairmanship. Canada is one of the most aggressive countries, where numerous Ukrainian diasporas have a great influence, including on political decisions.

— With the accession of Finland and Sweden to NATO, the liberals at the helm in Ottawa do not hide their desire to transform it (the structure of the Arctic Council. — Ed.) into the arena of confrontation with Russia, where seven NATO states would play together in one group against our country. Time will tell if the ACE will survive. Russia has always been against the politicization of his work, and has consistently advocated the preservation of high latitudes as a conflict—free zone of the world," Russian Ambassador to Canada Oleg Stepanov told Izvestia.

At the same time, the Russian Federation is the largest Arctic power with the necessary resources, technologies and infrastructure for independent development of the region.

— We are the largest Arctic power, capable of solving all issues in the North on our own. And Westerners, even the United States (not to mention Canada), cannot. In this sense, it is much more useful to involve friendly countries that show mutual interest and have the necessary potential for joint mutually beneficial exploration of high latitudes," the Ambassador stressed.

Russia truly occupies a central place in the Arctic region: more than 24,500 km of the Arctic coast, the world's largest icebreaking group, including new-generation nuclear vessels of the Arctic project, dozens of settlements beyond the Arctic circle, operating military and civilian airfields, as well as an extensive network of scientific stations. The Russian continental shelf contains significant reserves of oil, gas and rare earths, which gives the region strategic importance for the development of the country's entire economy for decades to come.

Potential cooperation with friendly countries here is focused mainly on logistics and energy, Nikita Lipunov, a junior researcher at MGIMO. First of all, we are talking about China, which is interested in the transportation of goods along the Northern Sea Route (NSR). The Republic considers the Northern Sea Route as the most important direction for the development of its global initiative "One Belt— One Road". Linking transport routes will allow China to increase its influence on global trade.

China's interests overlap with Russia's other largest partner, India. The country also plans to transport container cargo along this route. In addition, both countries are interested in establishing a BRICS scientific center in Svalbard. At the SPIEF held in June, the head of the Ministry for the Development of the Far East, Alexei Chekunkov, in an interview with the Izvestia TV channel, confirmed plans for the development of the project and interest in it from the countries of the association. According to him, the infrastructure for ship repair is currently being created in the archipelago.

Interestingly, countries that are even further away from the region, such as ASEAN members, are also interested in organizing regular Arctic "service". Among them are Vietnam, Thailand and Indonesia. There are special expectations associated with the latter. Back in 2024, the Russian Federation and Indonesia planned to develop a program for the development of cooperation in the Far East and the Arctic, where cargo transportation along the Northern Sea Route will be one of the key areas. It is possible that Russian President Vladimir Putin also discussed this topic with his Indonesian counterpart Prabowo Subianto at the SPIEF. The NSR will increase the volume of exports of Indonesian goods to Europe (this country in Southeast Asia is the largest producer of nickel for batteries purchased by Tesla and Volkswagen plants), as well as reduce dependence on the Strait of Malacca, which, in fact, is controlled by the United States and China.

The West is accelerating the militarization of the Arctic

For Russia, the Arctic is not just a northern frontier, but a zone of economic interests, energy security, military stability, and scientific priority. The development of the world's undiscovered oil and gas reserves is possible precisely in the Arctic, a significant part of which is located just within the Russian continental shelf. The reserves of the Russian Arctic zone (AZR) amount to 7.3 billion tons of oil and 55 trillion cubic meters of natural gas. The development of these deposits is critically important for the energy stability of the country, especially against the background of sanctions pressure. The Northern Fleet, the upgraded infrastructure of the Arctic bases, restored airfields and radar stations form the northern shield of Russia. And as the region becomes militarized, the development of these points becomes strategically important.

The Arctic is inevitably becoming a new field for geopolitical rivalry. In particular, Donald Trump has repeatedly stated that the United States is lagging behind Russia in the icebreaking fleet. As a result, in his controversial budget bill, the One Big Beautiful Bill Act, the Americans invested more than $8.6 billion for the development of the Coast Guard icebreaking fleet.

The ambitions of the head of the White House to annex Greenland also point towards militarization. The United States is not so much interested in creating a 51st state as in gaining access to the Arctic territory and rare earth metals located on its territory.

Most recently, in June, Emmanuel Macron expressed a desire to hold joint military exercises in the Arctic "to increase security." In addition, the French president assured the Prime Ministers of Denmark and Greenland of their support in the face of various "challenges" in the region, mentioning "cooperation between Russia and China."

— There are risks of militarization in the Arctic, of course, but this is most likely not some short-term prospect, this is something that will be felt gradually. There are unlikely to be power surges in the region. But here, by and large, you can rely only on yourself," Roman Plyusnin, a researcher at the Center for Northern Europe in the Department of Country Studies at the IE RAS, tells Izvestia.

Nevertheless, Russia does not fundamentally abandon cooperation in the Arctic with Western countries. Moscow is ready to work in the region with all states that are responsible for development issues, and stands for equal cooperation, Vladimir Putin said in March.

For example, new perspectives have emerged against the background of the resumption of dialogue between Moscow and Washington. The head of the Ministry of the Far East Development, Chekunkov, called possible cooperation between the Russian Federation and the United States in the Arctic in the extraction of hydrocarbons, fertilizers, non-ferrous, precious, and rare earth metals. Kirill Dmitriev, CEO of the Russian Direct Investment Fund, as well as the special representative of the President of Russia for investment and economic cooperation with foreign countries, also stressed the need for joint projects in this region.