The promised three years will wait: the process of arms supplies to Ukraine from the United States through the EU may be delayed

Together with its European allies, Washington is discussing the possibility of implementing Donald Trump's instructions and resuming the supply of American weapons to Kiev. Although the US president has declared his determination to provide military assistance to Ukraine, neither the volume, nor the timing, nor the types of weapons intended for shipment are yet clear. In addition, the proposed mechanism does not allow for a rapid increase in supplies and the restoration of the Ukrainian air defense system. Details can be found in the Izvestia article.

Trump's new Plan

"Since the announcement (of a new arms supply plan to Ukraine. — Izvestia) It became clear that Trump had presented a framework, not a detailed plan. How significant any assistance to Ukraine will be will depend on the upcoming negotiations and who will provide what kind of weapons," the Reuters news agency reported, citing an unnamed European official.

Photo: Global Look Press/Xander Heinl

According to him, no one in NATO knew the details of the plan in advance, and even inside the administration of the American president, they are only now beginning to explore the possibilities of its application in practice.

Donald Trump announced his readiness to resume arms supplies to Kiev at a meeting with NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte at the White House. In fact, the US president proposed a new scheme for arming Ukraine: if during the Joe Biden administration Washington supplied Kiev directly and at its own expense, now the US's European NATO allies must buy their weapons from the Americans and then either supply them to Ukraine themselves or keep them for themselves, and give Ukrainians replacements from their own arsenals.

Vulnerable "Fort": the Ukrainian army lacks automatic weapons

Due to the shortage, the soldiers of the Armed Forces of Ukraine are armed with cheap submachine guns of their own design.

The US Permanent Representative to the North Atlantic Alliance, Matthew Whitaker, in an interview with Fox News channel, called the American leader's decision to supply weapons to Kiev at the expense of Europe "an excellent next step" towards ending the conflict in Ukraine.

A similar statement was made by the US President's special envoy for Ukraine, Keith Kellogg. He stated that the agreement, "fully funded by the allies, accelerates supplies, supports Ukraine's defense, strengthens NATO unity and underlines it (Trump. — Izvestia) commitment to peace through strength."

But despite Washington's statements about the "easy accessibility" of American weapons to Ukraine and attempts to present Trump's statements as a breakthrough, the allies questioned the possibility of their rapid and full implementation.

Photo: Global Look Press/Andriy Andriyenko

"It is still unclear how well these measures are planned. Both military officials and allies all expressed some confusion after Trump's press conference. Previously, there have been delays in the supply of most of the weapons, so these deals will either become a priority or they will have to wait a couple of years before delivery," Politico reported.

Vladimir Zelensky previously stated that Germany would buy two Patriot systems from the United States for Kiev, and Norway would acquire another one. Pentagon Chief Pete Hegseth discussed with German Defense Minister Boris Pistorius the issue of supplying Ukraine with two Patriot complexes.

However, Pistorius later admitted that although a decision on two systems for Kiev would be made in the coming weeks, the delivery of the first of them would take at least a couple of months.

Without France and Italy

The countries of the North Atlantic Alliance are not fully informed about the plan and do not know exactly how they will participate in it, so not all of them supported Trump's idea to supply American weapons to Ukraine indirectly.

NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte warned on July 14 that only seven countries are ready to purchase American weapons for Ukraine: Great Britain, Denmark, Canada, the Netherlands, Norway, Finland and Sweden. The eighth country will be Germany, through which Kiev will receive what it needs most now — the American Patriot air defense systems.

Photo: TASS/Chiang Ying-ying

Obviously, Italy, the Czech Republic and France, although they do not refuse to support Ukraine, nevertheless will not participate in the purchase of American weapons.

According to Czech Prime Minister Petr Fiala, his country plans to focus on other aid projects for Ukraine, including the supply of artillery shells.

In Italy, the refusal to participate in the Trump project was explained by the lack of funds in the country's budget and the intention to supply Kiev with products from its military-industrial complex. France also said that they would supply Ukraine with air defense systems of their own production.

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Paris and Rome, trying to balance their budgets, are already taking unpopular measures, so they do not want to anger their citizens and spend money on supporting the American military-industrial complex.

Earlier, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov stressed that any shipments containing weapons for Ukraine would become a legitimate target for the Russian Federation. According to the Russian Foreign Minister, the United States and the North Atlantic Alliance are directly involved in the conflict in Ukraine, including not only supplying weapons, but also training personnel in the UK, Germany, Italy and other countries.

The Russian Ministry of Foreign Affairs separately noted that the countries of the North Atlantic Alliance are "playing with fire" by supplying weapons to Kiev.

Russian-Ukrainian talks at the Chiragan Palace, Istanbul, Turkey

Photo: TASS/Alexander Ryumin

The Kremlin also reported that pumping Ukraine with weapons from the West does not contribute to the success of the Russian-Ukrainian negotiations and will have a negative effect.

What do the experts think

Natalia Eremina, a professor at St. Petersburg State University, noted in a conversation with Izvestia that Donald Trump is always about business.

— His task is to make sure that the money goes to the United States, and from there only on projects that will bring profit to the United States. He will offer everything to everyone, but not at his own expense, and the EU understands this, now they are building their own line of support for Ukraine. But there is still an understanding that nothing can be done without the help of the United States," the political scientist noted.

According to the expert, by their activity, the EU countries want to demonstrate to the United States their willingness to act.

— Currently, the possibilities of supporting Ukraine are only being determined, military support funds are being formed, but a battle will begin between the EU countries themselves. For example, the Baltic countries are already demanding payments from these funds, so it is unlikely that the agreed amounts will reach Ukraine itself," the expert concluded.

Ilya Kramnik, a researcher at the IMEMO RAS Center for the Study of Strategic Planning, believes that Germany finds itself in a difficult position in this situation.

Photo: Global Look Press/Sebastian Gollnow

— The Germans, of course, are not to be envied. They lost three and a half Patriot batteries out of the existing 12 even before the start of construction of the layered Sky Shield European air defense system, and they will obviously be separated into 2-3 more batteries in the near future, with the promise to supply new ones instead — at the German expense, of course. It will not work to get off the divorce, because Germany was almost the loudest of all that Europe should help Ukraine, despite the US position," the expert emphasized.

He added that Germany will lose about half of its air defense and it is unclear when these losses will be reimbursed.

— It is harmful to be desuverized and occupied, besides, you will have to replace supplies by purchasing at the export price, of course, — the analyst summed up.

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Elena Panina, director of the RUSSTRAT Institute for International Political and Economic Strategies, believes that Trump has taken a step in the direction needed by globalists.

"But it's not enough for them. After returning to power on a wave of promises not to meddle in Ukraine and not provoke a conflict with Russia, the US president took a powerful step in this direction, to the delight of globalists and those who express their opinions. I wonder if Trump himself is aware of what is happening?" the expert wrote on her Telegram channel.

Photo: TASS/Valerie Plesch

The political scientist wonders: does the US president understand where this road leads him and the country he leads?

"Judging by the 50-day "postponement" of sanctions against Russia, he understands all this, or at least feels it at the level of political instinct. However, the White House's room for maneuver is shrinking every week, and palliative care cannot restore it," the expert is sure.