Supplies are rising: US threats will hinder the Ukrainian settlement
US statements about economic sanctions and new arms supplies to Kiev may disrupt negotiations on Ukraine. The head of the White House has already said that the United States will send Patriot air defense systems to Ukraine at the expense of the European Union. But the increasing pressure on Russia does not lead to a peaceful settlement, Russian Foreign Ministry Ambassador-at-Large Rodion Miroshnik told Izvestia. According to military experts, in the future, several types of missile systems may be transferred to the Armed Forces of Ukraine, although it is not clear how the Ukrainians will use them — there is no appropriate infrastructure in the country, and it cannot be built quickly.
What will happen to the Ukrainian settlement
On July 14, Donald Trump announced that the United States would send Patriot air defense systems to Ukraine at the expense of the European Union. In addition, Washington is going to put pressure on Russia from the economic side. Trump announced that the United States will impose one hundred percent duties on goods from Russia if no agreement is reached on Ukraine in the next 50 days. According to analysts at The New York Times, such tariffs are unlikely to be introduced, as they will cause enormous damage to the US economy and provoke a conflict with China.
Anyway, the statements of the head of the White House did not go unnoticed in the Kremlin. Russian Presidential spokesman Dmitry Peskov called Donald Trump's threats "very serious": "Something in them is addressed personally to President Putin. We certainly need time to analyze what was said in Washington."
The Russian Foreign Ministry also expressed some caution. "It used to be 24 hours and 100 days. We've been through all this, and we really want to understand what motivates the President of the United States. It is clear that he is under enormous, indecent pressure from the EU and the current leadership of NATO," said Sergey Lavrov, head of Russian diplomacy. His deputy, Alexander Grushko, said: Trump's ultimatum about 50 days is "very strange," there was no call for Kiev to resume negotiations.
There really is something to analyze. A change in Washington's position may affect the Ukrainian settlement, said Rodion Miroshnik, the Russian Foreign Ministry's ambassador-at-large for crimes committed by the Kiev regime.
Ambassador-at-Large of the Russian Foreign Ministry for Crimes of the Kiev regime Rodion Miroshnik
— Ukraine is a PR-effect state, so PR-effects from other states will have a rather bad effect. The pressure being exerted towards Russia does not lead to a peaceful settlement," Miroshnik told Izvestia.
Dmitry Novikov, First deputy chairman of the State Duma Committee on International Affairs, agrees with this. Moreover, the tightening of rhetoric against Russia will give a new impetus to Ukraine and the EU to promote the anti-Russian agenda.
— Although Zelensky's team has not received what is most desirable for it, it is clear that it has cheered up and will use this fact in its propaganda. Secondly, EU leaders will now believe that further work needs to be done with Trump and that he can be persuaded to more actively support their position, which means more active support for the current Kiev regime. In a certain way, this will affect the internal American situation," the deputy added.
At the same time, Novikov draws attention to the fact that the proposed scheme — "50 days to build up" — is a kind of prolongation of the situation in order not to inflame relations between Moscow and Washington. Although Trump's rhetoric is getting tougher and may become even more harsh over time.
What kind of weapons can Ukraine get?
So far, the most significant outcome of Trump's "U-turn" has been statements about the supply of weapons to Ukraine. Kiev will receive the first batch of 17 Patriot units within a few days. Germany, Denmark, Sweden, Estonia, and the Netherlands will also participate in the deal. Vadim Skibitsky, Deputy head of the Main Intelligence Directorate of the Ministry of Defense of Ukraine, said that Kiev did not know exactly what US President Donald Trump meant when he spoke about sending 17 Patriot systems to the country. However, as Alexey Zhuravlev, first deputy chairman of the State Duma's defense committee, told Izvestia earlier, Patriot is not considered a "superweapon" for Russia and has been repeatedly destroyed on the battlefield. However, the United States is not going to stop supplying only this type of missile system.
— The United States will be able to provide Ukraine with Tomahawk cruise missiles, — said Dmitry Kornev, editor of the MilitaryRussia portal. — But it is still unclear how the Ukrainian Armed Forces will be able to use them, since these are sea-based missiles, that is, they are launched from submarines. There are two fixed facilities in Europe for ground use — in Romania and Poland. It took almost two years to build them. Accordingly, new ones also need to be built, designed and found for them, which will take time. Therefore, this is not yet possible from a practical point of view.
The United States also has a modern Typhon missile system, which Germany is already requesting. If it is delivered, Ukraine will become the first importer of this complex. However, this scenario is also unlikely so far.
— This option, in my opinion, is on the verge of fantasy. At least because Trump does not give the impression of being an extremely generous politician for the distribution of modern weapons. No one has received typhoons so far," the expert said.
Multiple launch rocket system with ATACMS missiles
As for the JASSM long-range missiles, Trump does not plan to supply them to the Armed Forces. So far, the American media have been writing that Ukraine may receive permission to use long-range ATACMS missiles to strike deep into Russia. Kiev may also receive a new batch. These missiles were already supplied to the Ukrainian Armed Forces more than a year ago under the Biden administration, and were used for strikes, but only against new regions of the Russian Federation.
The United States has quite large stocks of ATACMS missiles. According to the expert, theoretically they can supply dozens and even hundreds of ammunition from their warehouses. At the same time, sending American weapons to Ukraine through NATO countries may take several years due to difficulties with previously agreed supplies, Politico reports, citing a Pentagon source.
However, Washington has not yet publicly discussed potential strikes against Russia. Despite the information spread in the media, the White House said that Donald Trump, in a conversation with Zelensky, did not call for strikes against Moscow and St. Petersburg.
— When Trump talks about arms supplies to Ukraine, he does not come up with any initiative, but largely responds to those requests that Zelensky has already formulated. If the requests are related to the supply of weapons, including those that can go far beyond the front line, then this is Ukraine's position. And having received such weapons, they will willingly use them," Dmitry Novikov told Izvestia.
The White House added that the president continues to work tirelessly to end the conflict in Ukraine. However, it is difficult to ignore such a significant reversal in the Trump administration, especially given the traditional unpredictability of the current US leader.
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