Creation of peace: Russia is ready to contribute to the settlement between Baku and Yerevan

Russia is ready to contribute to the settlement between Armenia and Azerbaijan, Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Mikhail Galuzin told Izvestia. On July 10, Nikol Pashinyan and Ilham Aliyev discussed normalization of relations in the UAE. It was even expected that Yerevan and Baku could conclude a peace agreement. Now the parties are closer to this than ever, experts tell Izvestia. However, the signing may aggravate Pashinyan's already difficult relations with the opposition ahead of the parliamentary elections in Armenia. The prospects for a peaceful settlement of the conflict between Yerevan and Baku are described in the Izvestia article.

Russia's participation in the reconciliation of Armenia and Azerbaijan

Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev and Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan held talks in Abu Dhabi on July 10. They were a continuation of their previous meeting — in May, at the summit of the European Political Community in Tirana, the parties declared their readiness to maintain dialogue. This time, the leaders discussed specific aspects of normalization. They also noted the progress in the delimitation of the border and instructed the relevant state commissions to continue practical work in this direction.

Russia is ready to contribute to the settlement of relations between Yerevan and Baku, Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Mikhail Galuzin told Izvestia. The main directions of movement towards it were outlined in the trilateral agreements of the leaders of the Russian Federation, Azerbaijan and Armenia in 2020 and 2022, the diplomat added.

Mikhail Galuzin, Deputy Minister of Foreign Affairs of the Russian Federation

Photo: RIA Novosti/Ramil Sitdikov

— We believe that it is necessary to move in these directions: the preparation of a peace treaty, the unblocking of economic ties and transport communications in the region, the delimitation of borders with subsequent demarcation, the establishment of a dialogue between civil societies and the parliaments of Armenia and Azerbaijan. And, of course, the Russian side, as one of the participants in the trilateral agreements, is ready to continue contributing to their implementation. Naturally, in the form in which it will be convenient for both sides," Galuzin said.

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Before the meeting, a number of media outlets reported that Aliyev and Pashinyan could even agree on signing a peace agreement. In general, this is now one of the most important issues in relations between Baku and Yerevan. The rumors were reinforced by the fact that in March, the foreign ministries of the two countries announced the completion of the agreement on the text of the treaty.

Work on it began in 2022 with the mediation of Russia, the United States and the EU after the so-called second Karabakh war. However, in September 2023, external circumstances changed significantly: Azerbaijan conducted a military operation in Karabakh, after which it declared the restoration of territorial integrity. However, work on the settlement continued. In September 2024, the Armenian government published a draft ratification of the provisions on the joint work of the border delimitation commissions. The Russian Federation has also previously stated its readiness to share its experience in this area with the republics.

Photo: TASS/EPA/ROMAN ISMAYILOV

"We are ready to assist our Azerbaijani and Armenian partners in all key areas of reconciliation between the two countries. We have excellent practices on unblocking transport and economic communications within the framework of the relevant trilateral working group co-chaired by the Deputy prime Ministers of Russia, Azerbaijan and Armenia," Russian Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Maria Zakharova said in April.

Nevertheless, Azerbaijan puts forward additional conditions for signing a peace treaty. For example, Baku insists on amending the Constitution of Armenia: now it contains a reference to the declaration of independence of 1990, according to which Nagorno-Karabakh is part of the country. Baku also demands to stop the work of EU observers and to achieve the dissolution of the OSCE Minsk Group.

For his part, Nikol Pashinyan has repeatedly stated his readiness to sign a peace agreement. In May, he even "threatened" to change the country's basic law if the Constitutional Court did not uphold the peace treaty with Azerbaijan.

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What is happening in Armenia now

Opinions differ on the prospects for concluding a contract. Now Yerevan and Baku are really closer than ever to signing a peace agreement, political scientist and orientalist Iqbal Durre tells Izvestia.

"But what matters here is how much this agreement will be working and long—term," the expert notes.

Nikolai Silaev, a senior researcher at the MGIMO Center for Caucasus and Regional Security Problems, believes that the signing is still in doubt.

Prime Minister of Armenia Nikol Pashinyan and President of Azerbaijan Ilham Aliyev

Photo: Global Look Press/Xinhua

—If a few months ago both sides stated that they had agreed on the text of the peace treaty, but during these few months they did not sign it even at a personal meeting, it means that something is wrong there, and the probability that it will be signed is low," says the expert.

This is probably due to Pashinyan's position. On the one hand, the signing of the agreement will help the Armenian prime minister gain the support of international partners, including Turkey, which traditionally sides with Azerbaijan, Iqbal Durre says. Ankara is really waiting for the necessary conditions to be provided for the signing of a peace treaty between Yerevan and Baku, the country's Security Council said in a statement in May.

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On the other hand, a possible peace agreement will aggravate Pashinyan's relations with the opposition, which have been difficult lately. She opposes the peace treaty on current terms: two of the three parliamentary factions do not support the foreign policy course of the Armenian prime minister. For example, earlier the factions "I have the Honor" and "Armenia" boycotted the meeting of the legislative body altogether, refusing to discuss the work of the commissions on the delimitation of the border with Baku. Disagreements with the opposition are getting worse. By the way, on the morning of July 10, security forces searched the house of Armenian MP Gegham Manukyan.

Parliamentary elections will be held in the country in 2026. Against this background, last month, "I have the Honor" announced its intention to impeach the Armenian prime minister. 36 votes are required to include the initiative in the legislative body's agenda alone. Armenia stated that it is ready to put its 28 signatures under this document if eight votes are gathered. But "I have the Honor" has only six seats in parliament. Therefore, the faction is currently negotiating with two more deputies — they left Pashinyan's party, but have so far refused to sign their names, the head of the faction Hayk Mamidzhanyan told Izvestia.

Photo: TASS/Alexander Ryumin

— Work is currently underway to ensure that the Hayastan block (Armenia. — Izvestia) joined our impeachment procedure. Work is also underway on independent deputies and in other areas," he said.

Recently, disagreements with the opposition have been intensifying against the background of Pashinyan's strained relations with the Armenian Apostolic Church. The AAC criticizes the policy of the authorities, especially regarding the settlement of relations with Azerbaijan. In 2024, thousands of people protested in the republic over the delimitation of the border in the Tavush region. Archbishop Bagrat Galstanyan, who is currently detained, became their organizer. In addition to him, Archbishop Mikael Ajapakhyan and businessman Samvel Karapetyan, one of the largest patrons of the church, have been arrested in Armenia in recent weeks.

As a result, Pashinyan's rating among the population is falling. According to a Gallup International opinion poll, more than 67% of Armenian citizens negatively assess his work. Only 8.2% of respondents are satisfied with the Prime Minister's work.