Playing for the Republic: will Moldova be able to accelerate its accession to the European Union

Chisinau has taken a step towards European integration — on July 4, the EU–Moldova summit was held there for the first time with the participation of the heads of the European Commission and the European Council. Ursula von der Leyen has announced the first tranche of €270 million for reforms. The republic's authorities hope to speed up the process of joining the EU, but it will not be as fast as Chisinau expects, experts tell Izvestia. Formally, accession negotiations have been agreed on Ukraine, whose membership is still a big problem, and their potential accession to the EU should be synchronized. Why it is beneficial for the ruling party in Moldova to join right now is in the Izvestia article.

How Moldova is approaching the European Union

On Friday, the EU–Moldova bilateral summit was held for the first time. Almost all the top leadership came to Chisinau — the President of the European Council, Antonio Costa, and the head of the European Commission, Ursula von der Leyen. President of the Republic Maia Sandu, Prime Minister Dorin Rechan and Speaker of Parliament Igor Grossu discussed with them Moldova's future in the European Union.

The results of the summit turned out to be very modest. Ursula von der Leyen said that the EU would allocate the first €270 million for Moldova's growth plan, which was essentially a done deal. Back in March, the EU Council finally approved the creation of a fund for reforms in the republic for €1.9 billion in the form of grants and loans with long maturities and low interest rates. The first tranche will be used for a new hospital, restoration of heating networks in Chisinau, reduction of electricity and gas bills, as well as for "investments in Moldova's competitiveness." The EU will also cancel roaming charges for citizens of the republic, provide free Wi-Fi in Chisinau and simplify money transfers through the country's inclusion in the Single Euro Payment Area (SEPA).

Maia Sandu wanted to make such a summit a regular platform and rightly stressed that there is a lot of work ahead for EU membership. Back in December, she set a goal to open the first EU accession negotiation cluster in the first half of 2025, that is, during Poland's presidency of the European Council. By the way, Warsaw actively supported Chisinau on the path of European integration. But Moldova was a little late — the baton passed from Poland to Denmark, which is ideologically much further away. The strengthening of relations between Chisinau and the EU has been going on for quite a long time. Therefore, it is extremely beneficial for Moldova to accelerate the process of joining the union before the upcoming parliamentary elections. They are scheduled for September 28.

But joining the EU will not happen as quickly as Chisinau wants, Vladimir Bruter, an expert at the International Institute for Humanitarian and Political Studies, tells Izvestia.

— It's just impossible to do it so quickly. I think that's what they think in Europe too. In the near future, this will only be an imitation: in parallel with Moldova's accession to the EU, Europe is resolving the issue of Ukraine's accession. The entry of Chisinau and Kiev in one form or another will be synchronized. Moldova is still being promised accelerated entry, but it won't happen in the near future," HSE analyst Nicole Bodisteanu tells Izvestia.

Moldova applied for EU membership in March 2022, even before Ukraine. However, in the same year, both countries immediately received the status of candidate countries. In the summer of 2024, the EC announced that both had fulfilled the conditions for future accession, and formal negotiations began at the same time. But there is a caveat: Hungary opposes Ukraine's accession to the EU.

And although in November 2023, the union's leaders were able to overcome Budapest's attempts to block the accession process, Hungary was the only one that did not sign the document envisaging the opening of the first negotiating cluster. At the same time, Prime Minister Viktor Orban said on July 4 that citizens of most of the countries of the union are against Ukraine's admission to the EU.

— Most EU states would say no to Ukraine's accession. If we accept Ukraine, we will accept war. The annexation of Ukraine will destroy our economy," he said.

In general, recently, the entry of anyone into the EU has been encountering a lot of obstacles. So, in 2022, Georgia applied on the same day as Moldova, but the process was suspended in relation to it. In 2024, Tbilisi radically changed its political course after the election victory of the ruling Georgian Dream party. European integration was immediately overshadowed by the adoption of a number of decisions objectionable to Brussels, for example, the law on foreign agents.

— As practice and the examples of Turkey and Serbia show, countries can be in candidate status not just for years, but for decades. This also adds to a number of systemic problems both within Moldova itself and in the EU," says Nicole Bodisteanu.

What complicates the process of joining the EU

The situation in Moldova is really difficult right now. Recently, protests have become much more frequent. People are unhappy with low salaries, late wages and rising prices. The unrest in society is also fueled by Chisinau's persecution of a number of politicians who advocate strengthening ties with the Russian Federation, rather than frenzied European integration. Evgeny Gutsul, Bashkan of Gagauzia, is among them. She was supposed to be sentenced on the eve of the summit, but the meeting was postponed to August 5, probably in order not to destabilize the situation before the event. Moldova also has an unresolved Transnistrian issue. After this winter, when the authorities blocked gas supplies to the unrecognized republic, the tension between Chisinau and Tiraspol only intensified.

Moldova has taken a pro—European course since 2020, when current president Maia Sandu came to power, and a year later, her Action and Solidarity party. Around the same time, Chisinau began to move away from Moscow. It is noteworthy that it was then that the standard of living in the republic began to fall. The authorities began to abandon Russian energy supplies, again due to their desire to synchronize with the EU. As a result, an energy crisis began in the republic, which subsequently triggered an economic one.

Against this background, in 2022, Maia Sandu lost the trust rating to her predecessor Igor Dodon. According to a survey by the Institute of Marketing and Opinion Polls (IMAS), 62% of respondents are dissatisfied with living conditions, 72% believe that the country is moving in the wrong direction. In 2024, Sandu narrowly overcame the presidential election, only slightly ahead of opponent Alexander Stoyanoglo, gaining 55.33% of the vote. Moreover, the victory was secured by votes from foreign diasporas, and not from residents of the republic itself.

Parliamentary elections are due to be held on September 28. They are almost more important than the presidential ones, since Moldova is a parliamentary republic. The candidate for the post of Prime Minister is nominated by the president, but it is the parliament that approves him. If Sandu's party loses the majority, it will be very difficult for the president to promote a candidate who is comfortable for himself and who will continue the pro-European course.

The rating of the ruling party is falling: in 2025, according to an iData poll, only 27.5% of Moldovans are ready to vote for Action and Solidarity. Against this background, it is very beneficial for the party to activate the entire information agenda around European integration and demonstrate that four years in power have not been in vain, says Nicole Bodisteanu. Therefore, now the Moldovan authorities will continue the same course and toughen their position towards Russia, since this is exactly the request of the collective West, which controls this process, Vladimir Bruter summed up.

But it is worth emphasizing that although Russophobia in power circles will increase, this does not mean that similar processes are developing in Moldovan society. There are anti-Russian sentiments in the republic now, of course, but they are in the minority, the expert noted.