Entering the sea: Western countries seek access to the Caspian Sea
The Israeli attack on Iran took place in the context of a more complex configuration of Western countries aimed at changing the political regime in the country and destroying the North–South and West–East corridors. The complex anti—Russian plan is described in the Izvestia article.
Break with the IAEA
The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) could conduct inspections at Iran's nuclear facilities, but after the Israeli operation, Tehran decided to temporarily cease cooperation, said President Masoud Peseshkian, who issued a decree suspending cooperation between the state and the IAEA.
Initially, this initiative was approved by the country's parliament on June 25, the day after the end of the 12-day war with Israel. According to Deputy Speaker of Parliament Hamid Reza Haji Babai, Tehran will no longer allow the head of the IAEA, Rafael Grossi, to visit its nuclear facilities, nor will it agree to install surveillance cameras at these facilities.
According to Alexei Pushkov, head of the Federation Council Commission on Information Policy and Media Relations, the crisis over Iran has not yet been completed.
"From now on, all Iran's nuclear facilities are closed to IAEA inspectors. Iran suspects the leadership of this organization of passing secret information about Iran's nuclear facilities and Iranian nuclear scientists to Israel. As we predicted, the crisis is reaching a new stage," the senator is confident.
Far-reaching Caspian plans
Western countries are not abandoning their plans to strengthen their influence in the Caspian littoral countries. For example, the United States is considering advancing American interests through new pipeline projects to weaken Moscow's political and energy influence in the region.
At the end of May, the head of the State Department, Marco Rubio, announced US support for the construction of the trans-Caspian gas pipeline. This project is supposed to connect Turkmenistan with Azerbaijan for the supply of Turkmen gas to the European market.
In general, the issues of extraction and transportation of hydrocarbon resources from the Caspian region after the collapse of the Soviet Union were in the center of attention of all the administrations of the White House. In particular, the main goal pursued by the United States was to prevent future flows of Caspian resources from passing through the territory of the Russian Federation.
Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan, and Turkmenistan, which have large reserves of gas and oil and are far from the main markets, have always been of great interest to Washington.
The United States has managed to achieve the implementation of a number of projects. The Baku–Tbilisi–Ceyhan oil pipeline and the Baku–Tbilisi–Erzurum gas pipeline helped Azerbaijan enter the Turkish market, and with the help of the Southern Gas Corridor, the European gas market.
Western countries sought to change the balance of power in the region. Against this background, Washington actively supported the expansion of cooperation between Azerbaijan and Kazakhstan in the 1990s and the entry of Kazakh oil and Turkmen gas to the world market through Azerbaijan.
Russia and Iran opposed the construction of pipelines under the Caspian Sea, but the United States aggressively promoted these projects in an effort to reduce the role of Moscow and Tehran.
In the context of the confrontation between Russia and the West, the Caspian littoral countries have come under economic and political pressure. They express their willingness to participate in the construction of trans-Caspian gas pipelines, explaining the need to diversify the routes of supply of hydrocarbon resources to the market, as well as reduce dependence on Russia and China.
The policy of Western countries is aimed at reformatting energy flows and reducing the geopolitical influence of Moscow and Tehran.
Having control over Iran, the United States and Israel gain control over the Caspian region. Thus, it becomes possible in the future to block the shortest transport routes, including railways, between the Middle East and China. The consequences can be unpredictable, and the North–South corridor project, in which Moscow invests not only politically but also diplomatically, may be at risk.
Some European countries, led by Britain, would like to change the status of the Caspian Sea in order to change the balance of power in the global resources market. The conflict between Israel and Iran may be a convenient reason to negotiate deals without Tehran's participation.
The Convention on the Legal Status of the Caspian Sea was signed in 2018. According to the document, it is in common use by five countries, including Russia, and the seabed and subsoil are divided by neighboring states into sections by agreement between them on the basis of international law.
States parties to the Convention have the right to economic activity, navigation and scientific research.
What do the experts think
Vladimir Avatkov, Doctor of Political Sciences, Head of the Department of the Near and Post-Soviet East at the INION RAS, noted in an interview with Izvestia that what is happening around the South Caucasus has come as a surprise to many.
— The West's struggle against us continues. And not only within its framework. And there may be different ways: where to push, where to sanction, where to annoy, where to set fire," the expert explained.
According to the political scientist, the South Caucasus has long been persistently "uncoupled" from Russia.
— The French and Turks — Armenia, the Turks and the British — Azerbaijan, the EU and NATO — Georgia. The methods are different, the goals are the same. It seems that a significant reboot is already clearly required in this area. Moreover, it is consolidated both on the external and internal track of Russian politics," the analyst concluded.
Russian political analyst Dmitry Evstafyev believes that the confrontation around Iran should be considered much more broadly. According to the expert, the events taking place in the region are an attempt to implement the British scenario.
"These forces need a mosaic manipulated space around which a source of hybrid force could be constructed for all the centers of influence around them: from the fearful monarchies of the Persian Gulf to the Caspian littoral states, including Russia, but also Kazakhstan. From this point, the revival of a new networked British empire can really begin," the expert believes.
According to him, this is a difficult scenario.
"Of course, there are a lot of nuances in it, but it is realistic, so Trump may have played a stabilizing role temporarily, but it broke a lot," the political scientist summed up.
Mikhail Khazin, a political scientist and authority theorist, holds a similar position. He drew particular attention to the fact that in recent days there has been a sharp increase in Russophobia in Azerbaijan.
"It's no secret that today's Azerbaijani elite is closely controlled by the UK. This is due to the fact that they have been storing their money in British offshore companies since the 90s, as soon as they gained access to the export of Azerbaijani oil. And there are serious reasons to believe that the Azerbaijani elites will never receive this money in its entirety, and what they receive will be exclusively within the framework of the policy that Britain needs," the political scientist believes.
In his opinion, London has "eaten a dog" on such a policy.
"It is absolutely obvious that Great Britain is rushing to the Caspian Sea. A conference in Israel on the partition of Iran was scheduled for June 25, because the logic was that Iranian Azerbaijan should demand autonomy, and then independence and unite with Northern Azerbaijan. New Azerbaijan, of course, is under the control of London. And, accordingly, Pashinyan and Aliev came to Turkey for the same cause not so long ago for a conference, which was also supposed to discuss the future of the region, new borders, but, as we know, nothing came of it, because the logic of Iran's destruction did not go through," the expert said.
The expert emphasized that the United States played a major role in this, "advocating stability."
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