On the occasion: Kiev is trying to aggravate relations between Moscow and Baku

Moscow sees Kiev's attempts to unbalance relations between Russia and Azerbaijan and provoke tension, the Kremlin said. Earlier, Vladimir Zelensky, in a telephone conversation with Ilham Aliyev, accused the Russian Federation of threatening the republic. Experts believe that Zelensky's call will not affect the situation in any way, and it should return to normal soon. Nevertheless, the Russian Foreign Ministry urged Russians in Azerbaijan to exercise caution, and tour operators reported a 30-40% drop in sales. Moscow and Baku are currently discussing the situation at the level of the head of the Investigative Committee and the Prosecutor General of Azerbaijan. How relations between the two countries will develop is in the Izvestia article.

Detentions in Russia and Azerbaijan

The tension in relations between Moscow and Baku has not subsided. On July 1, the Russian Foreign Ministry responded to a statement by Baku, which accused Russian law enforcement officers of exceeding their authority in detaining Azerbaijani natives on June 27 in Yekaterinburg. The ministry called all the accusations interference in the internal affairs of Russia, which looks quite reasonable. The detainees have Russian citizenship, and they are suspected of having committed serious crimes in Russia in previous years, said Maria Zakharova, an official representative of the department.

According to investigators, a group of Azerbaijani natives were involved in the murders in Yekaterinburg in 2001, 2010, and 2011. It clarifies that the members of the ethnic criminal group committed crimes for the sake of dividing spheres of influence in business, as well as out of personal revenge. After the arrest, it became known that two defendants in the case had died. The cause of death of one of them was heart failure, the Investigative Committee of the Russian Federation reported.

At the moment, all the detainees have been charged, and one of them gave detailed testimony and exposed his accomplices, the Investigative Committee of the Russian Federation reported. In total, eight people are accused of murder and attempted murder in Yekaterinburg.

On July 1, eight Russians were arrested in Baku for four months. They were accused of drug transit from Iran, online trafficking of illegal substances and cyber fraud. Most of them left Russia in the fall of 2022, but there are also tourists who arrived in Azerbaijan relatively recently. Footage has spread in the media showing Russians beaten until they bleed, walking in single file with their hands behind their heads. The Russian Human Rights Council stated that those arrested had become hostages of the situation and were unlikely to be involved in real crimes.

— The situation is, of course, difficult, and the most terrible thing is that people who, to me, obviously have nothing to do with crime are suffering, — said Eva Merkacheva, a member of the Human Rights Council.

Igor Kartavykh, the head of Sputnik Azerbaijan's editorial office, and Yevgeny Belousov, the editor-in-chief, were also detained in Baku, and they were arrested on absurd charges, declaring them "FSB agents." Previously, there had been no complaints about the merits of their work, Maria Zakharova clarified. Such measures against Russian journalists absolutely do not comply with generally accepted rules and regulations, said Dmitry Peskov, the press secretary of the President of the Russian Federation.

Moscow will use all available means to protect the interests of the arrested Russian citizens, he said. At the same time, Azerbaijan has not yet responded to the notes demanding consular access to the arrested Russians, the Russian Embassy in Baku reported.

The aggravation of relations against the background of conflicts in Ukraine and the Middle East

Interestingly, on the eve of the aggravation of relations between Russia and Azerbaijan, Moscow and Baku took different sides in the armed conflict between Iran and Israel. Azerbaijan sided with the Jewish state, while Russia sided with the Islamic Republic. Stanislav Tarasov, an expert on the problems of the Middle East and the Caucasus, told Izvestia that this circumstance could have been one of the factors that influenced the current crisis.

However, orientalist Leonid Tsukanov believes that this could hardly be a catalyst for the current round of tension between the two countries.

— The Moscow factor in the Iran-Israel conflict was not directly read, as there was no real tension between Azerbaijan and Iran. Even taking into account the close ties between Azerbaijan and Israel, Baku remained neutral during Operation Lion Force and did not officially provide its airspace for launching Israeli UAVs, the expert said.

At the time of the aggravation of relations between Moscow and Baku, Vladimir Zelensky had a telephone conversation with Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev. In his social networks, he stated that he expressed Ukraine's support in a situation where Russia allegedly "threatens" Azerbaijan.

Zelensky wanted to take advantage of the situation and aggravate relations between Moscow and Baku, said Bogdan Bezpalko, a member of the Council on Interethnic Relations under the President of the Russian Federation. At the same time, it is unlikely that this call will affect the situation in relations between Russia and Azerbaijan.

— It is unlikely that there were any specific agreements, because Azerbaijan supports Ukraine to the best of its ability. Obviously, this was a purely formal act to once again demonstrate the ties between Ukraine and Azerbaijan," the expert told Izvestia.

By the way, the Kremlin said that Moscow notices Kiev's intention to provoke tension between Russia and Azerbaijan.

— Moscow sees Kiev's attempts to unbalance relations between Russia and Azerbaijan and provoke tension. Kiev will do everything to add fuel to the fire and provoke Baku into emotional actions," the presidential spokesman said.

What is happening in Azerbaijan now

On July 2, the Prosecutor General's Office of Azerbaijan made a number of harsh statements. Its official representative, Samira Najafzade, directly accused Russia of gross violations of international law and torture of Azerbaijani citizens. The SOE added that the republic will do everything to ensure that those responsible for the deaths of the Safarov brothers are punished according to the law. Aggression against the Russian Federation is being actively fomented at the state television level in Baku. The presenter of AZ TV has publicly stated that Russia has historically considered Azerbaijanis and other peoples to be "second class" and continues to pursue an "imperial policy" today.

In addition, Russians in Azerbaijan began receiving complaints about document checks, visits by unknown persons, as well as the use of physical violence, the Russian Embassy in Baku reported. The Russian Foreign Ministry called on Russian citizens staying in the republic to exercise increased caution and take into account the situation in the country when deciding on a trip. Sales of tours to Azerbaijan have already fallen by 30-40%, Aleksan Mkrtchyan, vice president of the Alliance of Travel Agencies Association, told Izvestia. According to him, if the situation normalizes, it will take two to three weeks to restore the flow.

At the same time, it seems that some forces are trying to rock the situation as much as possible. So, the media reported that the closure of Russian-language schools in Azerbaijan has begun. The Ministry of Science and Education of the Republic promptly denied this message, calling it fake.

At the same time, a real escalation may indeed lead to a decrease in the intensity of contacts between Moscow and Baku, especially in light of Azerbaijan's choice of escalatory tactics and increased pressure on immigrants from Russia, Leonid Tsukanov believes. On the other hand, the republic is unlikely to be ready to give up a large market for its agricultural products, as well as lose contacts in the field of oil and gas production. In the first five months of 2025, the trade turnover with Russia amounted to $2.16 billion and increased by 25%, according to the data of the State Customs Committee of Azerbaijan.

Political analyst Sergey Markov believes that the situation is unlikely to go too far, given the close humanitarian ties between Moscow and Baku. He recalled that there are one million Azerbaijani Diasporas in Russia, and thousands of Russians who study in Russian schools also live in Azerbaijan. According to him, the Baku authorities also provide serious support to the Russian Orthodox Church, which plays an important role in bilateral relations.

The escalation between Russia and Azerbaijan in a sense repeats the Russian-Turkish scandal of 2016. Then, after a Turkish fighter jet shot down a Russian Su-24 in Syria, Moscow and Ankara entered a phase of diplomatic conflict and for a while dropped the volume of cooperation, Leonid Tsukanov recalled. However, over time, the incident was resolved, so it cannot be ruled out that this situation will be resolved in a similar way.

According to Dmitry Peskov, Russia has never threatened Azerbaijan. At the moment, both sides are discussing problematic issues at the level of Alexander Bastrykin, the head of the Investigative Committee, and Kamran Aliyev, the Prosecutor General of Azerbaijan, said the press secretary of the President of the Russian Federation.