Causes and investigations: what is happening in relations between Moscow and Baku

The tension in relations between Moscow and Baku has not subsided. On the evening of July 1, it became known that the Russian authorities had questions for two more Azerbaijani natives, Shahin Shikhlinski, head of the diaspora in Yekaterinburg, and businessman Yusif Khalilov. Prior to that, the republic's Interior Ministry confirmed information about the detention of several people after searches at the Sputnik office in Baku. Against this background, the Ambassador to the Russian Federation, Rahman Mustafayev, protested in connection with unfriendly steps. Earlier, the Azerbaijani Foreign Ministry summoned the Charge d'affaires of Russia in connection with the mass detention of Azerbaijanis in Yekaterinburg. Later, the Prosecutor General's Office of the republic opened a criminal case "on the fact of premeditated murder." At the same time, the Kremlin is ready for dialogue with Azerbaijan. It is premature to talk about a radical cooling of relations between Moscow and Baku, Alexander Yushchenko, a member of the parliamentary group for relations with the Azerbaijani parliament, told Izvestia.

Detention of Azerbaijanis in Russia

On July 1, the Russian Foreign Ministry protested to Azerbaijani Ambassador Rahman Mustafayev in connection with Baku's unfriendly actions. The republic's attempts to accuse Russian law enforcement agencies of exceeding their powers are interference in Russia's internal affairs, the foreign Ministry added.

On the eve of June 30, searches took place in the editorial office of Sputnik Azerbaijan in Baku, after which its head Igor Kartavykh and editor-in-chief Evgeny Belousov were detained. The Azerbaijani Interior Ministry says that seven people were detained in the editorial office as a result of the operation. Local media reported that "two FSB officers of Russia" were allegedly detained during the investigation. At the moment, Igor Kartavykh and Evgeny Belousov have been arrested for four months.

Prior to that, the Ministry of Culture of Azerbaijan announced the cancellation of all cultural events in the country through Russian state and private institutions. In addition, the delegation of the republic canceled its participation in the scheduled meeting of the commission of the Parliament of the country and the Federal Assembly of the Russian Federation on interparliamentary cooperation.

The reason was the incident in Yekaterinburg. At the end of June, Russian law enforcement agencies detained more than 50 Azerbaijani natives there. The Russian Foreign Ministry stressed that the detentions were carried out in continuation of the investigation of criminal cases on the fact of "serious crimes" in previous years.

After that, two citizens of the republic died: Huseyn and Ziyaddin Safarov. At the same time, the Investigative Committee reported that one of the detainees died, according to preliminary data, due to heart failure, and the causes of death of the second are being established.

Then the Azerbaijani Foreign Ministry summoned the charge d'affaires of the Russian Embassy in the republic, Peter Volokov. They strongly protested to him because of the raids in Yekaterinburg.

—Charge d'affaires of the Russian Federation Volokov, invited to the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the Republic of Azerbaijan on June 28, gave the necessary explanations to the Azerbaijani side, assured that the situation was under the control of law enforcement agencies," said Russian Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Maria Zakharova.

However, on July 1, the Prosecutor General's Office of Azerbaijan nevertheless opened a criminal case "on the fact of the premeditated murder" of two Azerbaijani citizens and persons of Azerbaijani nationality by "Russian law enforcement officers."

Later it became known that the head of the Azerbaijani diaspora in Yekaterinburg, Shahina Shikhlinski, was also arrested, a source told Izvestia. It was also reported that in Voronezh, a group of special forces came to the home of Azerbaijani-born businessman Yusif Khalilov.

The Kremlin stressed that the actions of law enforcement agencies should not be a reason for diplomatic demarches. Despite the current situation, Moscow is interested in developing good relations with Baku, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said.

There is no radical deterioration, Alexander Yushchenko, a member of the parliamentary group for relations with the Azerbaijani parliament and deputy coordinator of the Communist Party faction, told Izvestia.

— I would not talk about radical cooling and would categorically not allow such a term. Yes, there is a topic for discussion that needs to be addressed, I think, within the framework of inter—political departments, within the framework of leadership interaction," the deputy said.

According to Dmitry Peskov, the conversation between Vladimir Putin and Ilham Aliyev is not on the agenda right now, but "if necessary, it will take place as soon as possible."

The situation with Azerbaijan is really difficult now, but as practice shows, everything in the interaction between the two countries depends on the dialogue between the leaders, Daria Saprinskaya, a researcher at the Laboratory for Modern Central Asia and the Caucasus Studies at the Institute of Oriental Studies of the Russian Academy of Sciences, tells Izvestia.

Experts note that after Karabakh, Azerbaijan became a serious regional power, so now it is important for it not to lower the level of its independent policy. These factors objectively affect his foreign policy position and inevitably affect the dynamics of relations with key partners, including Russia.

Tension in relations between Russia and Azerbaijan

The Russian Foreign Ministry believes that such a rapid escalation in relations between Moscow and Baku is fueled by interested parties. "We are witnessing the active efforts of individual forces to split our relations with Baku. There are insinuations about the AZAL plane crash in December last year, which resulted, in particular, in the closure of the Russian House in Baku," said Dmitry Masyuk, Deputy Director of the Fourth CIS Department.

It is possible that the aggravation of relations between Russia and Azerbaijan is now beneficial to the West, believes Alexander Yushchenko.

— Western countries are interested in making the Caucasus flare up. <...> It is clear that this situation has arisen for a reason. Someone is heating it up," the politician says.

Tensions between Moscow and Baku arose in the winter of 2024. On December 25, the Embraer E190 of the Azerbaijani company AZAL crashed, which was flying on the Baku– Grozny route. On December 28, in a telephone conversation with Ilham Aliyev, Vladimir Putin apologized for the tragic incident that occurred in Russian airspace, and once again expressed his deep and sincere condolences to the families of the victims and wished a speedy recovery to the injured. At that time, the Russian air defense system repelled attacks by Ukrainian UAVs on Grozny, Mozdok and Vladikavkaz.

After that, on February 3, 2025, Baku sent a note to Moscow on the termination of the activities of the Russian House. The Azerbaijani Foreign Ministry then stated that the center was not registered as a legal entity and "seriously violated the legislation" of the country. Then the owner of the building where the Russian House is located decided to sell the premises.

At the same time, the Russian Foreign Ministry was ready to "take the necessary actions to complete the registration" and hoped for a positive solution to the issue. The head of Rossotrudnichestvo, Yevgeny Primakov, also stressed that Russia had repeatedly appealed to the Azerbaijani Foreign Ministry and the Ministry of Justice with a request to help register the Russian House, but this request remained unanswered.

It is worth noting that earlier there was a cooling of attitudes towards Moscow in other countries of the region, for example, Armenia or Georgia, which is also dictated by the influence of the West. Nevertheless, Yerevan, despite the suspension of participation in CSTO events and the strengthening of relations with the EU, still remains a partner of Moscow. In particular, the parties closely cooperate through the EAEU.

— To be honest, we feel good in the EAEU. The numbers speak for themselves. <...> But, on the other hand, we cannot ignore the desire of a very significant part of our people to shape elections and options for Armenia's future," said Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan.

At the same time, the Russian Federation has repeatedly stressed that Armenia will inevitably have to choose between EU and EAEU membership. Despite the lack of diplomatic relations with Russia, Moscow also maintains strong trade and economic ties with Georgia.

A similar situation is emerging now in relations between Moscow and Baku. Despite public disagreements, the countries maintain close economic contacts. The trade turnover is growing: according to the results of the first quarter of 2025, it amounted to $1.43 billion. Russia is also one of the three foreign trade partners of Azerbaijan after Italy and Turkey. Cooperation is also supported at the regional level: more than 70 Russian regions are developing cooperation with the republic. The parties previously discussed the opening of an industrial park in Azerbaijan.