In this Syria: lifting sanctions against Damascus brings its peace treaty with Israel closer

Donald Trump's lifting of sanctions against Damascus will create conditions for concluding a peace treaty between Syria and Israel, experts interviewed by Izvestia believe. After years of conflict, the parties began negotiations on normalization of relations. The agreement can be signed by the end of 2025. According to the press, the IDF, under the terms of the future agreement, will retain control over the Golan Heights and withdraw troops from the occupied territories in the south of the Syrian Arab Republic. How the Syrians can interpret this and what risks it will entail for the new authorities can be found in the Izvestia article.

Prospects for a peace treaty between Damascus and Tel Aviv

The long-term adversaries found themselves on the verge of concluding a historic agreement that could mark the end of decades of hostility. According to the Times of Israel newspaper, citing an unnamed Israeli official, negotiations between Damascus and Tel Aviv on normalization of relations are at an advanced stage.

It is expected that the agreement can be signed before the end of 2025, the I24 TV channel reports. The most important terms of the deal, allegedly, will be the recognition of Israeli control over the Golan Heights and the phased withdrawal of IDF troops from occupied territories in southern Syria after December 8, 2024.

Amid increased reports of Syrian-Israeli talks, on June 30, US President Donald Trump signed a decree lifting US sanctions against Syria. The United States remains Israel's main ally in the Middle East. Therefore, Washington's lifting of restrictions may become part of a broader deal that, in general, includes the normalization of relations between Syria and Israel, said Vladimir Akhmedov, a researcher at the Center for the Study of Common Problems of the Modern East at the Institute of Oriental Studies of the Russian Academy of Sciences.

At the same time, the United States continues to play the role of a backstage mediator: according to the Israeli news portal Walla, American diplomats are conducting parallel consultations with the Israeli and Syrian sides, coordinating key parameters of a possible agreement.

Talks about its conclusion by the end of 2025 still remain at the level of cautious discussions in diplomatic circles, but their tone looks unusually confident, Nikolai Sukhov, a leading researcher at the Center for Middle East Studies at the IMEMO RAS, told Izvestia. The expert noted that the support of the new Syrian administration by the United States, the partial lifting of sanctions and the gradual restoration of the international legitimacy of the Ahmad al-Sharaa regime create a unique window of opportunity, which seems almost incredible after years of civil war.

The Israeli Prime Minister's national security adviser, Tzachi Hanegbi, confirmed on June 24 that the authorities of the Jewish state are in daily direct contact with the Syrian authorities. "I am personally conducting a dialogue with the political representatives of Damascus," he told Israel Hayom. Negotiations are also taking place through military channels.

Izvestia sent a request to the Embassies of Israel and Syria in Moscow with a request to comment on the negotiations.

According to the Israeli press, Mossad chief David Barnea and Foreign Minister Gideon Saar are participating in the discussions. Representatives of the IDF are also in constant contact with the Syrian officers — we are talking about coordinating the operational situation in the buffer zone in southern Syria, where Israeli units have been stationed since January.

The catalyst for change was the overthrow of Bashar al-Assad in December 2024. After that, Israeli forces entered the territory of Syria and took control of some positions, including areas on Mount Hermon and along the de-escalation zone.

Signing a peace treaty will require unprecedented coordination of the interests of four key players: Syria, Israel, the United States, and possibly Turkey, Nikolai Sukhov notes.

— No one can push through a deal alone. And, perhaps, for the first time in many years, reality is closer to compromise than to war," the expert told Izvestia.

In May, Syrian leader Ahmed al-Sharaa publicly acknowledged the fact of direct contacts with Israel for the first time during a press conference after meeting with French President Emmanuel Macron. However, according to sources in the Lebanese newspaper Al-Akhbar, the Syrian regime does not have unity on the issue of normalization with Israel.

Part of al-Sharaa's entourage is calling on the American mediators to consider a more limited agreement — that is, a cessation of hostilities without moving towards a peace agreement.

Others fear that it will be difficult for the authorities to justify such an agreement while the war in Gaza continues, especially amid widespread condemnation in Arab countries of Israel's military actions.

In addition, the Syrian representatives, who are oriented towards Turkey, are afraid of increasing Israeli influence to the detriment of Ankara's role.

How are the contacts between Syria and Israel going?

Tel Aviv's position in the negotiations remains tough: the Golan Heights are part of the State of Israel. This point of view was confirmed on June 30 by the Minister of Foreign Affairs of the Saarland, stating that there could be no territorial concessions on the Golan.

The Golan Heights were captured by Israel during the 1967 Six-Day War, and in 1981 a law was passed on their annexation. The annexation was not recognized by the international community, but in 2019, President Trump signed a decree recognizing Israel's sovereignty over the area.

For Israel, this is primarily a security issue, Nikolai Sukhov notes. The Jewish state needs absolute guarantees: the complete absence of Iranian forces in Syria, especially against the background of the latest escalation with Tehran, the elimination of the missile threat and strict border control. Damascus is probably ready to agree to demilitarization, but the question remains how to ensure compliance with these agreements in the face of possible escalation or sabotage by radical groups.

The creation of a demilitarized zone is also one of Israel's key conditions. It should run along the southern borders of Syria and actually become a buffer between the countries. It is planned to ban the deployment of heavy weapons and a permanent military presence there.

Syrian expert Mohammed Al-Amri told Izvestia that the Syrian authorities did not hide the existence of indirect contacts, which was previously referred to by President al-Sharaa. However, in his opinion, the entry of Damascus into negotiations on Israeli terms does not meet the interests of Syria, and the authorities are focused on solving internal problems.

— Such a step may cause discontent among the population. Syria is trying to stop the depletion of its resources due to Israel's actions, but Damascus does not have sufficient capabilities to confront the Jewish state, the expert said.

It is noteworthy that the Syrian side does not demand the return of the Golan during the current negotiations, the Lebanese LBCI TV channel reports. Instead, Damascus is seeking recognition of the new regime, the withdrawal of the IDF from occupied territories in southern Syria, and support from the United States. But some experts are skeptical about the real prospects of signing a peace agreement between Syria and Israel.

As Vladimir Akhmedov noted in a conversation with Izvestia, the conclusion of a peace agreement between the parties in the coming months is unlikely. According to him, this would be a precedent that would seriously affect the perception of the problem of the occupation of Arab territories, including Palestine and part of Lebanon.

— This is a dialogue between the strong and the weak. What can the new Syrian government do against Israel now? There is no army, no armed forces, no weapons, no unity of the territory, no cohesion of the population around the new government. Even if they sign something in this scenario, it will, on the contrary, lead to a new round of confrontation and division," the expert notes.

A possible agreement concluded against the background of instability in Syria could cause a negative reaction both inside the country and from key Arab states in the region.

— This, of course, will hit Damascus very hard, because the main support is concentrated inside the country and in the Arab environment. In particular, the Saudis and the Qataris are still forced to take into account the opinion within their countries, which will be strongly opposed to such an unequal agreement," said Vladimir Akhmedov.

According to the orientalist, before entering into negotiations with Israel, the Syrian authorities should focus on restoring control over the country, strengthening the army, economy and ensuring internal stability. Otherwise, signing a peace agreement while the regime is still relatively weak could lead to destabilization and even a change of power in Damascus.