On the way out: Europe is preparing for a possible withdrawal of US troops in the fall

European members of NATO are preparing to reduce the number of US troops in Europe, the European Parliament told Izvestia. This fact was confirmed by a European diplomatic source, noting that the level of Washington's participation in the alliance would not change. Currently, the United States has about 80,000 troops in the European theater, mainly in Germany. The possible withdrawal of American troops will lead to a transformation of EU policy and require an increase in the national armies of European countries, experts say. The consequences of a possible reduction in Washington's attention to Europe are described in the Izvestia article.

How are they preparing for the withdrawal of US troops in Europe

European members of NATO are preparing for the fact that the number of US troops in Europe will decrease or they may be completely withdrawn, the interviewed MEPs told Izvestia.

"The prospect of the withdrawal of American troops from Europe, whether under a potential Trump administration or any future US government, is being taken very seriously throughout the European Union," Tomasz Zdechowski, a member of the European Parliament, told Izvestia.

However, Brussels sees the potential withdrawal of US troops from the EU as a wake-up call, not as a disaster. This will encourage European states to think more independently, take collective defense seriously and prepare for scenarios in which the United States will no longer be the main supplier of security, Zdechowski told Izvestia.

Many Europeans are skeptical about the announced change in US priorities. For decades, they have been accustomed to living under the influence of the United States, which has left them plenty of room to develop their own political identity and shape their foreign policy. The new US line raises a number of questions that the Europeans have not yet found answers to, said MEP Fernand Kartheiser in an interview with Izvestia.

"If Europe wants to become more independent from the United States, it needs to develop its own strategic concept, including with its neighbors, become less economically dependent on the United States and create a stable pan—European security environment," the politician noted.

The fact that the United States may reduce the number of its troops on the continent was confirmed to Izvestia by a European diplomatic source.

"There will be no reduction in US participation in NATO, but perhaps there will be fewer American soldiers and equipment in Europe," the source said.

Talk that Washington might withdraw troops from Europe has intensified with the arrival of the Donald Trump administration. The Republican does not consider Article 5 of the North Atlantic Treaty to be an unshakable value. In his opinion, it does not contain rigidly prescribed obligations to use force in an attack on one of the countries of the alliance, and the issue of the use of armed forces remains open. This was reported by Politico newspaper with reference to a senior White House official.

At the first meeting with NATO allies in February, US Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth said that harsh strategic realities did not allow the United States to focus primarily on the security of Europe. The head of the Pentagon instructed the department to review the deployment of US forces abroad. The American permanent representative to NATO, Matthew Whitaker, noted that a decision would be made by the fall. And Washington plans to start with Eastern Europe, from where they want to withdraw 10,000 soldiers, NBC reported in April. Recall that in 2022, the Joe Biden administration decided to deploy a contingent of 20,000 troops in this region.

The European allies of the United States are already preparing for this. For example, German Defense Minister Boris Pistorius asked Hegseth to provide a roadmap for the withdrawal of American troops from Europe, the Financial Times reported, citing three sources. And Swedish Defense Minister Paul Jonson indicates that the reduction of American troops in Europe will take place in the fall. Washington will transfer the liberated forces to Asia. The Swedish defense minister added: Europe must prepare to take more responsibility for its security. To do this, it needs to increase its own defense production, the minister believes.

The United States may withdraw some troops from Europe to refocus on the Asian region and a long-term confrontation with China. This idea has long been embedded in their military-strategic planning. However, any such measure may turn out to be temporary, Oleg Karpovich, vice rector of the Diplomatic Academy, said in an interview with Izvestia.

— Most of the American elite still proceeds from the need to inflict a strategic defeat on Russia. In this regard, a return to the previous status quo cannot be ruled out in the short term," he stressed.

The issue of the military presence of the US Armed Forces in Europe has been at the center of political debate for decades. Despite the reduction in the number of the US Armed Forces under Joe Biden from 100,000 to 80,000 people, no further serious reductions are expected, Vasily Klimov, a researcher at the IMEMO RAS Center for International Security and associate professor at MGIMO, said in an interview with Izvestia.

— The probability of a complete withdrawal of the US Armed Forces from the European continent is extremely low. If the American president decides to take this step, it will be evidence of a deep crisis in transatlantic relations. Even during the times of relative international political calm in Europe in the 1990s and early 2000s, the American contingent remained on its territory," the expert noted.

Where are the US troops in Europe?

American soldiers entered European territory during the First World War, and then in 1943 during the landings in Italy. After the start of the Cold War, the American military contingent in Europe became permanent, as Washington committed itself to protecting NATO allies. In 1953, the number of American troops reached almost 400,000 soldiers, and 40 warships defended the Old World from the sea.

After the end of the confrontation with the USSR, the number of US troops in the region began to decrease, and the liberated forces were involved in operations against Iraq and Afghanistan. At the same time, NATO was expanding eastward, and the U.S. military appeared in Eastern Europe, establishing military bases there.

Currently, US forces in the region are managed by the European Command, with its headquarters located in Stuttgart. Most of the military is stationed in Germany, and the US Air Force is also based at Ramstein Air Base. At the same time, part of the American aviation is located at bases in the UK, Hungary and Turkey. A new Mikhail Kogalniceanu airbase is being built in Romania, and in the future it may become the main base in the region. The US Sixth Fleet, which is responsible for the protection of Europe, is located mainly in the ports of Italy, Spain, Bulgaria and Turkey, with its headquarters in Naples. In addition, the United States stores its B61 nuclear bombs in four European countries, namely Belgium, Germany, Italy and the Netherlands. In the event of a war, they can be installed on aircraft of the State in which they are located. American nuclear weapons are also deployed in Turkey, another NATO country.

The exact number of U.S. troops in Europe remains unknown. As of the end of 2023, Washington had 80,000 soldiers in the European theater. About 20 thousand of them should be located in Eastern Europe. At the same time, in December 2022, Biden reported that 90,000 American troops were stationed in Europe. Thus, there is a tendency to reduce their number.

The EU no longer hopes that the United States will continue to carry out defensive functions as before. On April 29, EC President Ursula von der Leyen said: Brussels expects the United States to stop ensuring Europe's security and shift its military attention to other regions of the world. She also stressed that the "military threat from Russia" will not disappear over time and this requires the countries of the union to have a greater level of independence and coordination in defense policy.

Therefore, the EC announced the Readiness 2030 rearmament program worth €800 billion. To finance the project, Brussels offers EU countries to increase their defense spending by 1.5% of GDP. Thanks to this, the European Commission intends to raise 650 billion euros for the production of weapons. Another €150 billion for defense investments is planned to be obtained through loans.

By the way, a plan developed in the summer of 2023 is currently in effect. According to him, in the event of a conflict with Russia, the United States will deploy about 300,000 soldiers within 30 days. And the functions of repelling the first strike are assigned to the American contingent in Europe.

If we still allow the scenario of the withdrawal of US troops from Europe, then this will lead to mirror transformational changes in the EU. The European allies of the United States will be forced to fill this gap by building up their own military contingent, summed up Vasily Klimov from the IMEMO RAS Center for International Security.

The EU's attention should be focused on balanced security, and not on turning Europe into a battlefield for the interests of great powers, MEP Milan Mazurek told Izvestia.

— Unfortunately, it seems that rearmament has become a top priority for many in the EU. Although I fully support the creation of combat—ready and well-equipped armed forces capable of defending our countries, I strongly reject the incitement of war and the irresponsible waste of taxpayers' money," he told Izvestia.

Military spending will be financed from the increased public debt. This will lead to higher interest payments and principal payments in the future, but there are currently no plans on how this will be covered, Wolfgang Wiele, a member of the German Bundestag from the AFD, explained to Izvestia.

At the same time, the withdrawal of US troops may make EU countries more independent. In principle, they are already actively arming themselves and trying to create their own military and political base. But Oleg Karpovich, vice-rector of the Diplomatic Academy, is sure that the EU does not have resources similar to the American ones anyway, so European leaders will continue to rely on the help of overseas partners in the fight against the imaginary Russian threat.